Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Workshop 2009 July Sofitel Oriental Pudong Shanghai Joseph Ogrodowczyk, Ph.D. Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk1 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai

Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Day 1 9:00 – 10:00 Session 1: Overview 10:00 – 10:30Activity: Forecasting process discussions 10:30 – 11:00 Break 11:00 – 12:30 Session 2: Forecasting and S&OP 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Session 3: Data: Overview, analysis, and presentation 15:00 – 15:30Activity: Data preparation and reporting 15:30 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:00 Session 4: Short run forecasting 17:00 – 17:30Activity: Short run forecasting Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk2 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai

Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Day 2 9:00 – 10:00 Session 5: Guest speaker: Ms. Jennifer Han, Planning Director, Unilever 10:00 – 10:30 Break 10:30 – 12:30 Session 6: Choosing forecasting models 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Session 7: Evaluating forecasts 15:00 – 15:30Activity: Forecast accuracy and cost of error 15:30 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:30 Session 8: Conclusions Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk3 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai

Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis Website Questions: Send an or use web form  Focus question: What do you hope to get out of this workshop?  Also, access my contact information, and all presentation materials (in English only) during or after the workshop Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk4 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai

Data  Data for presentations and activities were taken from FreeLunch.com (accessed March 15, 2009)  Two worksheets in file: B2B and B2C  Wood on B2B is used for Sessions 3, 4 and 7  Session 1 uses example data  Session 8 uses data from articles Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai 5 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis

Forecasting in economic crisis  Best approach to forecasting is a holistic approach to forecasting that does not change during crisis  Key elements Well defined business process allowing for flexibility Communication between stakeholder groups Understanding / handling changes in data  These skills and knowledge become critical in financial crisis when mistakes are more costly Remember, best practices are best practices Introduction Joseph Ogrodowczyk6 Demand Forecasting and Planning in Crisis, July, Shanghai