EO and the SDGs: Measuring and Monitoring Urbanization Chandan Deuskar Urban Specialist, World Bank November 2015, Mexico City

Mention of ‘urban’ and ‘cities’ in the proposed SDGs and their indicators: ‘Urban’ in the SDGs GoalTargetIndicator 3 - Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination. Population in urban areas exposed to outdoor air pollution levels above WHO guideline values 4 - Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all 4.5 By 2030, eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for the vulnerable, including persons with disabilities, indigenous peoples and children in vulnerable situations. Parity indices (female/male, urban/rural, bottom/top wealth quintile] for all indicators on this list that can be disaggregated 11 - Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable 11.1 By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums Proportion of urban population living in slums 11.a Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning Cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants that implement urban and regional development plans integrating population projections and resource needs 11.b By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction , holistic disaster risk management at all levels Percentage of cities implementing risk reduction and resilience policies that include vulnerable and marginalized groups.

Each country defines ‘urban’ areas and populations differently: o 101 countries use some form of minimum population threshold (see graph below) o 9 countries use a minimum population density threshold (min: 150; max: 1500 per sq. km.) o Other criteria include economic activities, physical characteristics, type of employment, etc. o Some simply list their urban areas rather than defining any criteria Source: based on figures from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Mode: 2,000 Mean: ~5,000 Defining ‘Urban’

The World Bank and UN use urban data that is based on these varying national definitions of ‘urban’, making comparisons of statistics and trends problematic. o Widely cited global statistics (e.g. ‘half the world’s population is now urban’) simply add up figures based on these inconsistent definitions. Without a globally consistent database on urbanization, and a common understanding of what ‘urban’ means, we cannot get a holistic picture of: o where urbanization is occurring; o what the relationships really are between urbanization and carbon emissions/ economic growth/ poverty alleviation; and o whether countries are making progress towards the ‘Urban’ and other Sustainable Development Goals. Defining ‘Urban’ (contd.)

Concept of High-Density Clusters and Urban Clusters, each of which has a population density threshold (in people per sq. km.) and a population size threshold (in total number of people) Originally applied to Eurostat 2006 population grid for 27 EU countries European Commission approach

High Density Clusters: High density threshold (EC: 1,500 people per sq. km.) High population threshold (EC: 50,000 people) Gaps are filled Urban Clusters: Lower density threshold (EC: 300 people per sq. km.) Lower population threshold (EC: 5,000 people) Gaps are not filled Basic concepts

Population distribution map modeled from all available covariate layers (census data, built-up areas, roads, water bodies, etc.) Spatial resolution: 100m Year(s): Free to download; methods and algorithms openly available Planned: complete global layer with regular updates WorldPop

Built-up area layers improve WorldPop: WorldPop (contd.)

Produced by European Commission Joint Research Center Multi-sensor, multi-scale (can be adapted to any new imagery that becomes available) Open, public and reproducible Resolution: 30m aggregated to 300m Planned: 10m resolution, annually updated Currently available for 1975, 1990, 2000, 2014 (beta testing version) Global Human Settlements Layer

Produced by DLR (German Space Agency) Binary built and non-built layer using fully automated classification (to extract human settlement data) Very high resolution radar data: TerraSAR- X/TanDEM-X Global coverage Resolution: 12m aggregated to 84m Available for Global Urban Footprints

Results

Incorporating GHSL/GUF into WorldPop for all countries to improve accuracy Testing approach on GHSL Population Distribution layer Repeating analysis for past years (1975, 1990, 2000) to be able to measure urban growth in a standard way across the world and across time. Statistically testing the relationships between urbanization and economic growth/poverty/ carbon emissions across countries and time. Defining urban areas: next steps

Thank you!