1 The Global Impacts of Land Degradation: Final Report and Peer Review Michael Stocking Vice-Chair, STAP-GEF International Workshop GEF Land Degradation Focal Area Indicators FAO, Rome 8 January 2007

2 Purpose Three papers commissioned by STAP on behalf of the IA Task Force on Land Degradation This meeting to: (1)Present final outputs, especially scientific and technical findings (2)Contribute to the development of global indicators for the focal area (3)Peer review the papers prior to publication as GEF documents

3 Global Impacts of Land Degradation Objectives of paper:  A typology of impacts, including synergistic  Current state of knowledge of impacts  Analysis of degree of certainty  Gap analysis of what scientific inputs now needed

4 “GEF activities in the in the area of land degradation clearly produce global benefits through promoting ecosystem integrity even though the challenges being addressed most often have their origin in local and national activities.” Source: Scope and Coherence of the Land Degradation Activities in the GEF, page 10 [GEF/C.24/6, October 19, 2004]

5 Typology of Global Impacts 1. Impact on global systems F Climate, biodiversity, human development 2. Impact on ecosystem services F Cf. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment goods/services 3. By land-related processes F E.g. deforestation 4. By production systems F Rainfed, irrigated, rangeland, forest 5. By type of management system causing LD F E.g. over-grazing, vegetation clearance

6 Impacts by process

7 Impacts on ecosystem services

8 Impacts on biophysical components

9 Impacts by production systems

10 Plots near Landruk, W. Nepal Impacts by type of practice causing land degradation

11 Ecosystem Services and Global Impacts Service TypeClimate change BiodiversityInternational Waters POPsHuman well- being ProvisioningGHGs emission from crop production Expansion intensive agriculture Non-point source pollution Agro- chemicals Food security; income; drinking water RegulatingLand surface albedo; carbon storage; frequency and extent of dust storms Pollination and seed dispersal Soil erosion and sediment- ation Micro- organism activity Disease control; deforest- ation CulturalIndigenous farming systems Holy hills and sacred trees Knowledge & skills SupportingPhotosynthe sis; global nutrient cycling Soil formation and soil biodiversity Dust storms; ocean fertilization Bio- remediation Support to other ecosystem services

12 A simple impact matrix …on…. LDCCBD LD√√√√√ CC√√√√ BD√√√√√√ Major and best- recognised linkages Important positive (reinforcing) feedback loops

13 Global Environmental and Developmental Impacts 1. Useful to distinguish 2. An enormous scientific literature especially on climate change impact 3. However, not many inter-linkages defined explicitly 4. Few frameworks – but note LADA’s DPSIR

14 LD linkages made operational Source: Gisladottir & Stocking, 2005

15 The MA Model – Feedback Loops in Global Change Source: MA, 2004; Gisladottir & Stocking, 2005

16 LD and human development impact GEF and MDGs “Land degradation has triggered large-scale population movements, disrupted economic development prospects, aggravated regional conflicts, and threatened the lives and livelihoods of people living under its shadow. The GEF sees the path to ending poverty and hunger as one that must involve sound environmental management and sustainable development practices.” (GEF, 2005b)

17 A conceptual view of LD/SLM linkages BiodiversityClimate Change Land Degradation Control World’s Land Resources Sustainable Land Management Techniques & approaches Knowledge & research Strategies & policies Laws & institutions Poverty alleviation Food security Livelihoods Global Future R&D agendas 1 Local Global environmental change components Priority topics in SLM

18 Certainty and Knowledge Gaps ImpactKnow with some certainty Likely and/or known but less certain Need to know LD on CCCarbon pool; global C cycle Many – e.g. changes in soil/land/forest management Feedback loops; fate of C in eroded soil LD on BDDeforestation; habitat loss; effect of pollution Indicators for measuring impact Impact on below- ground biodiversity LD on IWLand use on pollution sources; effect on global hydrological cycle Atmospheric dust deposition; pathways Integrated strategies; land- ocean-atmosphere linkages LD on POPs Soil as a major pool, effect of soil organic matter Conditions where soils release POPs; effect of burning Synergies between soil management and POPs damages LD on ecosystem integrity Measurement of LD impacts on ecosystems Services at global level

19 Some conclusions…….  A rich literature – we cited 170 papers  A matrix of impacts (Table 30, p.53): light, medium, strong  Impacts, direct and indirect, vary hugely  Scale of impact is a key consideration  Linkage of spatial and temporal scales important  Most persuasive impacts are those that impact on global processes  But practically all impacts have indirect global impacts  Very difficult to calculate incremental benefits – precision is impossible

20 Our final words….. “It is possible to make a claim for the global impact of land degradation in all major instances of unsustainable land management. The question will be whether this is what the international community wants – and that is an economic and political issue, not a scientific one.”