CHAPTER 2 SECTION 2 Where has the world’s population increased?

Distribution of World Population Growth Population is increasing in places where the number of people being born is greater than the number of people dying The number of people immigrating into an area also can cause an increase The opposite of those two cause decreases in population

Three Measures of Population Change 1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)- the total number of live births for every 1000 people per year 2. Crude Death Rate (CDR)- the total number of deaths for every 1000 people per year 3. Natural Increase Rate (NIR)- the percentage by which a population grows in a year. – You subtract the CDR from CBR, then divide by 1000 and turn it into a percent. – This excludes migrational growth.

Natural Increase Rates Fig. 2-7: The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.

Crude Birth Rates Fig. 2-8: The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1000 population per year. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries.

Three Measures of Population Change The world NIR from 2000 to 2010 is around 1.2- meaning that our world population is growing by around 1.2 percent each year This is higher in some areas (most LDCs) and lower in some areas (most MDCs) Around 80,000,000 people annually Just a change in less than a tenth of a percentage in NIR can cause a huge rise or fall in the population 80 million at 1.2 percent, 66 million at 1 percent, 132 million at 2 percent!

World Population Growth Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to over 6 billion in slightly over 50 years. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

Three Measures of Population Change Doubling time is the number of years it takes to double a population At our 1.2 rate, our population can double in about 54 years- it could be 24 billion by 2100! The all time high NIR was in it was 2.2 percent NIR and it only took 35 years for the population to double! We can calculate world and regional NIR

Population Increase Most population increase occurs in LDCs- most of the countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East NIR is negative in Europe and some of the other MDCs located elsewhere To understand why this is occurring, you have to look at fertility and mortality rates

Fertility The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the number of births in a society- it is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (women ages 15-49) The world TFR is 2.7 children It tends to be lower than that in MDCs and higher in LDCs

Total Fertility Rates Fig. 2-9: The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East.

Country or RegionCrude Birth Rates CBRTotal Fertility Rates TFR More developed121.6 Less Developed232.8 Africa374.9 Latin America/Caribbean212.5 Asia (Excluding China)232.4 China121.6 Liberia506.8 Canada111.6 Mexico202.3 United States142.1 Italy91.3 Japan91.0 World212.6 Table 4. Crude Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates for Selected Regions and Countries* *From 2008 World Population Data Sheet: Demographic Data and Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World.

Mortality The basic measure of mortality, the number of deaths, in a country is the CDR (Crude Death Rate- number of people per 1000 that die each year) You can also measure mortality with: – 1. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): this is the number of infants who die per 1000 each year – 2. Life Expectancy: this is the average of number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels

Mortality Like most of the statistics we have covered so far, this varies between MDCs and LDCs IMR is higher in LDCs, and lower in MDCs Life expectancy is lower in LDCs, and higher in MDCs

Crude Death Rates Fig. 2-12: The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1000 population per year. Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the Demographic Transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.

Country or RegionCrude Death Rate CDRInfant Mortality Rates TFR More developed106.0 Less Developed854.0 Africa Latin America/Caribbean623.0 Asia (Excluding China)745.0 China723.0 Liberia Canada75.5 Mexico519.0 United States142.1 Italy104.2 Japan92.8 World849 Table 7. Crude Death Rates and Infant Mortality Rates for Selected Regions and Countries* *From 2008 World Population data Sheet: Demographic Data and Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World.

Infant Mortality Rates Fig. 2-10: The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births per year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorest countries of Africa and Asia.

Life Expectancy at birth Fig. 2-11: Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries.

Cool site on life expectancy

MDCs v. LDCs MDC Higher GDP/PCI Higher standard of living More industrialized Fewer farmers More stable government More service economy oriented More regulated Lower CBR, IMR, NIR, TFR Longer life expectancy Lower AIDs rate LDC Lower GDP/PCI Lower standard of living Industrializing/Developing More farmers Less stable governments More factory-based work Less regulated Higher CBR, IMR, NIR, TFR Shorter life expectancy Higher AIDs rate

Table 2. The Ten Most Populated Countries in the World, 2008* Country Estimated Population 1 China 1,324,700,000 2 India 1,149,300,000 3 United States 304,500,000 4 Indonesia 239,900,000 5 Brazil 195,100,000 6 Pakistan 172,800,000 7 Nigeria 148,100,000 8 Bangladesh 147,300,000 9 Russia 141,900, Japan 127,700,000

Table 3. The Ten Most Populated Countries in the World, 2050* Country Estimated Population 1 India 1,755,200,000 2 China 1,437,000,000 3 United States 438,200,000 4 Indonesia 343,100,000 5 Pakistan 295,200,000 6 Nigeria 282,200,000 7 Brazil 259,800,000 8 Bangladesh 215,100,000 9 Congo, De. Rep. 189,300, Philippines 150,100,000

Answer these questions for the next class period 1. Where is the world’s population growing fastest? Why is this? 2. The world population is growing each year- exponentially, not arithmetically. Explain the difference between these two and show how the world’s current NIR will affect the world’s population from this year to next year, in 2015, and if it maintains the same rate.

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