PORTUGAL Álvaro Martins CEEETA ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon (Member of the technical team in charge of the National Program for Climate Change)

1. INTRODUCTION On May 2000 the Portuguese Government has defined the main guidelines to prepare the National Program on Climate Change (NPCC). Under the leadership of the Environment Institute (Environment Ministry) a technical team was created having as main objective the elaboration of the National Program on Climate Change till the end of 2002.

2. National Program for Climate Change - METHODOLOGY i)Using as baseline an energy simulation demand model, projections of the main GHG emitted by the energy sector for the period have been prepared; ii) A first document has been published on December 2001 as a basis for public discussion; A set of Policies and Measures have been proposed as a basis for discussion with the economic agents and with the public services responsible for sector policies; iii) A new version of the NPCC will be prepared till the end of 2002, after a more complete assessment of the GHG emissions, of the policies, measures and instruments to fulfil the Portuguese targets from the burden share agreement.

3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology  Social, economic and technological scenarios have been extensively used in the past for energy planning purposes.  A very complete exercise of long term scenario building has been carried out in Portugal in 1994/1995, which is still a reference.  In 1999 one of the scenarios published in 1995 has been retained and improved in order to be considered as a basis for energy modelling. This scenario has been considered for the first version of the NPCC.  The long term scenarios are not defined on a regular basis.

3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology Macroeconomic scenarios Energy demand scenarios Energy supplyGHG from outside the energy sector Emission projections Ministry of Economy – Planning Department General Direction for Energy

3. GHG PROJECTIONS – Scenarios methodology Industrial sectors considered: Food Beverages Tobacco Textile and clothes Shoes Wood, cork and furniture Pulp, paper and printing Chemicals, rubber and plastic Ceramics Glass Other non-metallic minerals Metallurgy Metal industries Construction

4. GHG PROJECTIONS - the 1999 long term scenario ( ) 1995 macro-economic scenarios GNP growth rates Scenario A12,52,02,12,2 Scenario B23,33,43,23,3 Scenario C33,73,63,83,7

5. MODELLING Besides de economic models used in scenario building, an energy simulation model is used to analyse energy final demand and estimate the emissions of GHG. For the centralized electricity supply we rely and criticise the results published by the National Grid obtained from optimisation models of the electric sector. A methodology for optimal policy design and estimation of shadow prices is not yet available.

5. MODELLING The main driving variables for energy consumption are: –- population, income and specific energy consumptions (technology), for the residential sector, –- value added for the productive sectors, –- mobility, infrastructure development, specific consumptions, for the transport sector, –- hypothesis on technology, energy price system and behaviour are also part of the scenarios.

6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS A “base line” or “business as usual” scenario is defined. As “base line” we consider a scenario where policies, measures and instruments embodied do not take into account the Kyoto targets for Portugal. It includes P&M already in operation in May These projections, produced in 1999, will be updated during (a) including carbon sinks. +46%

7. POLICIES AND MEASURES The following policies and measures have been proposed for public discussion. They are classified as: –Immediate P&M Those P&M recently approved or being studied but not considered in the base line scenario; –Additional P&M New P&M necessary to fulfil the Portuguese emission targets.

7. POLICIES AND MEASURES

REFERENCES Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) – Energia , Estratégia para o sector energético, September Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999a) - A procura de energia em Portugal – Sector dos Transportes, (working paper) DSPAE/DP, June Direcção-Geral de Energia (1999b) - A procura de energia em Portugal – Sector Industrial, (Working paper) DSPAE/DP, June 1999 GASA-DCEA-FCT (2000) – Emissão e controlo de gases com efeito de estufa em Portugal. Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território, Março 2000 Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as Alterações Climáticas, December 2001 Instituto do Ambiente (2001) - Programa Nacional Para as Alterações Climáticas – estudos de base para a fundamentação do programa, December 2001

REFERENCES Information on the energy scenarios, hypothesis and parameters used are available from reports published by Direcção-Geral de Energia (1995) (1999). The National Inventories are available at amb.pt. amb.pt The Portuguese National Program for Climate Change (2001) can be downloaded from