1. Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland
John Fitz Gerald
The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin

2. Introduction National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000
ESRI Draft Revisions - September 2001
Models Used Today
Parameters
Comparison of Projections
Responsibilities

3. Models Used HERMES-Ireland DEMOG - Demographic model
Macro-economic model - used
Energy sub-model - to be included
DEMOG - Demographic model
Household numbers - used
Energy sub-model - used
Methodology is being developed
TEAGASC agriculture - developing

4. Procedure Macro-economic environment Relate it to demographic change
Migration and Households
Model energy demand
Emissions
Model cattle numbers

5. Developing the Model Need to include feedback to macro-economy
Energy use reaction to price changes and other policies - elasticities
Models of electricity and other sectors
Feedback effects on macro-economy
Affects prices, wages, competitiveness, GNP
Needs integration of energy model into macroeconomic model

6. Assumptions - Autumn 2001

7. Birth Rate

8. Population Structure, 2001

9. Relative GNP

10. Cars per person aged 15-64

11. Model Publication HERMES - various journals ESRI Medium-Term Review:
Macro-economic forecasts
Energy Sub-Model
ESRI Working Paper
National Climate Change Strategy, 2000

12. Policies and Measures ESRI Without Measures - unchanged policies
Includes expanded deployment of wind
Agenda 2000 reform of agriculture
Looking at quantifying policy measures, e.g.
Fuel substitution in electricity
Taxes and tradable permits
Quantification - needs model development

13. Comparison of Forecasts
National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS)
ESRI (ESRI)
EU Sectoral Objectives (EU)
Some problems on definitions
Ignoring sinks

14. Source of all GHG Emissions
Source: Environmental Protection Agency

15. Greenhouse Gas Projections

16. Comparison of Forecasts
No change in policy, Comparison with 1990, %

17. Responsibilities Department of the Environment (DOELG) Expertise:
Official energy balances / projections
Department of Public Enterprise
Official GHG projections & IPCC methodology
the Environmental Protection Agency
Socio-economic / energy projections
Assisted by the ESRI
Expertise:
ESRI - CO2 from Combustion