1. Structural Transformation and Manufacturing Opportunities Nobuya Haraguchi 20 February 2015 1

2. Outline Structural change and role of manufacturing in the economy Structural change within manufacturing and opportunities for low and high income countries Global production network 2

3. 3 Rodrik, 2014Ghani and O’Connell, 2014

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6

7. 7 (86 countries) Source: UNIDO

8. 8 Developing countries have had higher growth in manufacturing than in GDP for 31 years out of 43 years.

9. 9 Value added share Source: UNIDO

10. 10 Value added share Source: UNIDO

11. 11 Value added share Source: UNIDO

12. Low income countries 12

13. 13 Patterns of Manufacturing Development Source: UNIDO

14. Change in value added per capita by income, low- and lower-middle incomes

15. Food and beverage Textiles Chemical Electrical machinery and apparatus Motor vehicles Fabricated metals Basic metals Wearing apparel Rubber and plastics Machinery and equipment Employment Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2

16. Food and tobacco Textiles and leather Energy intensity of Manufacturing Industries Tonns of oil equivalent / US$ 1,000 MVA Metals Non-metallic minerals

17. Textiles Wearing Apparel Coke and Petro Machinery and Equip. Electrical Mach. and Equip.Motor Vehicles.

18. 18 Wearing apparel Changes in value added and labour productivity Textiles $9,000 $18,000 $10,000 $14,500

19. $13,000 $17,000 Basic metals Electrical Machinery and Apparatus $35,000 Changes in value added and labour productivity

20. High income countries 20

21. Start growing slower than the economy-wide average (Large countries) Source: UNIDO

22. Food and beverage Textiles Chemical Electrical machinery and apparatus Motor vehicles Fabricated metals Basic metals Wearing apparel Rubber and plastics Machinery and equipment Employment Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2

23. Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

25. 25 Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

26. 26 Manufacturing-related employment in Germany (in 1,000) Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD

27. N.A. 91% W.E. 91% E.A. 88% Final outputs Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 1990 Total of the three regions 72% +S. America and S.E. Asia 84% 2.5% 1.9% 3.6% 4.1% 3.4% 2.0% 90% 81%

28. E.A. 86% W.E. 83% N.A. 84% Total of the three regions 68% +S. America and S.E. Asia 86% Final outputs Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 2011 81% 88% 4.4% 5.4% 2.1% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6%

29. Total of the three regions 84% Final outputs Electrical and Machinery, 1990 N.A. 91% W.E. 91% 3.3% 3.9% 2.9% 3.9% 3.2%

30. Total of the three regions 80% Final outputs Electrical and Machinery, 2011 N.A. 84% W.E. 85% 5.8% 5.4% 3.2% 5.1% 3.2% 5.8%

31. Total of the three regions 68% + S.E. Asia 78% Value Added Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 2011 73% 70% 51% 79% 14% 11% 28% 90% 83% 79%

32. Total of the three regions 77% Value Added Electrical and machinery, 2011 N.A. 93% W.E. 80% E.A. 77% 72% 67% 57% 77% 11% 14% 17% 25% 88% 84% 81%

33. Total of the three regions 81% Value Added Transport equipment, 2011 N.A. 93% W.E. 80% E.A. 77% 38% 64% 69% 72% 11% 10% 39% 10% 13% 16% 10% 74% 93% 80% 11%

34. Textiles and wearing apparel

35. Electrical and machinery

36. Transport equipment