Application of Statistics on Cross-boundary Transport Planning in Hong Kong Sorais Lee, Planning Department, Hong Kong IAOS/SCORUS Conference Shanghai 2008

Ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland Administrative information Cross-boundary Travel Surveys The Projection Model Other sources of information Application of Statistics on Cross- boundary Transport Planning in Hong Kong

Major Control Points in Hong Kong Hong Kong International Airport China Ferry Terminal Macau Ferry Terminal Hung Hom Station Lok Ma Chau Control Point Lo Wu Terminus Man Kam To Control Point Sha Tau Kok Control Point N Tuen Mun Ferry Terminal Lok Ma Chau Spur Line Control Point Shenzhen Bay Control Point

Close Ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland 140%

Daily Passenger Trips by Land Control Point Lo Wu has major share. LMC increases fast Lo Wu has major share. LMC increases fast No. of trips ( x 1000)

Average Daily Trips by Passenger Type (during the two-week period in Nov/Dec) No. of trips ( x 1000) Average annual growth rate % 6% 19% 18% 2% 29% 23% 1%

Trip Rate of Usual Residents by Sex Number of Daily trips per 1000 Usual Residents

Trip Rate of Usual Residents by Sex Number of Daily trips per 1000 Usual Residents

No. of trips Daily Vehicle Trips by Control Point (figures for the whole year and based on administrative records) %

No. of trips Daily Vehicle Trips by Vehicle Type (figures for the whole year and based on administrative records) Average annual growth rate % 2% 2% 0% 23% 15% 3% - 5% 23% - 4% 33% 7%

0.47 trip per day per quota Quota Approved (left scale) Trip Rate (right scale) Private Car Quota and Trip Rate (figures for the whole year and based on administrative records) 0.73 trip per day per quota

Sources of Data Administrative data from government departmentsAdministrative data from government departments  Census and Statistics Department  Immigration Department  Customs and Excise Department  Marine Department  Civil Aviation Department

Sources of Data Administrative data from government departmentsAdministrative data from government departments  Passenger Flows by Control Point by Direction  Vehicle Flows by Control Point by Direction  Passenger Movement Records  Vehicle Movement Records No information on  Purpose of trip  Destination / origin  Mode of transport

Cross-boundary Travel Surveys Surveys in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2007 (supplementary vehicle survey in 2004)Surveys in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2007 (supplementary vehicle survey in 2004) 2 weeks survey period in Nov/Dec2 weeks survey period in Nov/Dec Method – randomly select passengers and drivers and intercept them to conduct face-to- face interviewMethod – randomly select passengers and drivers and intercept them to conduct face-to- face interview Covers passenger and vehicle tripsCovers passenger and vehicle trips Covers all major control points – land, sea, airCovers all major control points – land, sea, air

Trip Distribution Trip Assignment Transportation Network and Service Attributes Population and Employment Forecasts Link and O-D Flows, Times, Costs, etc Modal Split Trip Generation 4-Stage Transport Model Iteration 8 series of passenger trips by type by purpose OD flow volumes Share among transport modes Route selection process

Cost Elasticity Model Local Loaded Networks Guangdong Loaded Networks Planning Data Hong Kong Domestic Transport Model Highways Networks Public Transport Networks Freight ModelPrivate Vehicle Model Total Public Transport Demand Modal Split Through Train, Boundary Train, Bus, Ferry Person Matrices Public Transport Loading Goods Vehicle and Container Vehicle Demand Matrices Private Vehicle Demand Matrix Highway Loading by Crossing Point Bus Vehicle Flows Highway Loaded Network Highways Model Public Transport Model Cross-boundary Transport Model Structure

Survey on Propensity to Use Private Cars to Cross the Boundary, 2005 Thematic household surveys on Hong Kong people’s experience of and aspirations for taking up residence in the Mainland Survey on Hong Kong people living in Shenzhen Joint study with three neighbouring cities (Shenzhen, Macao, Zhuhai) of Hong Kong Administrative statistics Administrative movement records Cross-boundary Travel Surveys Transport-related information Mainland-related information Planning and development information Government policies Historical data Statistical surveys Planning data Overview of sources of information

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