1. 2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference
The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011)
Teresa Chang, Planner
Sept. 5, 2012

2. Presentation Outline Background of the Study Area
What Do We Want to Know?
Why Do We Update?
How Do We Update?
Introduction of TCModel 2011

3. Background— Study Area
Changhua
Taichung
Nantou
Taichung(29)
Changhua(19)
Nantou(2)
Study Area – Taichung Urban
Countys: Taichung, Changhua, Nantou
Towns: 50
Area: 3,062.3 KM2
Population: 3.95million people

4. Background -Railway Master Plan
Operations
Taiwan Rail(gray)
Taiwan High Speed Rail
(yellow)
Taichung
Changhua
Nantou
Construction
TR-Red Line
(the project
completion year is 2015)
MRT-Green Line
completion year is 2017)
Planning
MRT-Blue Line
MRT-Orange Line

5. Background -Orange Line
Taichung
Changhua
Nantou
Taichung Airport
Downtown $
Depot
OA4
OA3
OA2
OA1 O1 O2 O3
O4/G7
O9/B9 O5 O6 O7 O8
O14
O16
O17
O15
O13
O12
O11
O10
MRT — Orange Line
From
OA4 To
O17
Length,km (elevated)
14.7
Length,km (underground)
14.8
Total Length,km
29.5
Stations (elevated, ) 8
Stations (underground, ) 13
Total number of stations 21
MRT System
MCT
Depot 1
Transfer Stations ( , ) 2

6. What Do We Want to Know? When the future wil build Orange Line , …… 1
Percent of Private Trips to Total 2
Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day) and Revenue 3
Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area 4
Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips) 5
Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel operating cost reductions) 6
Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits) 7
Emission Reductions (CO, NOx PM10) 8
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies

7. Why Do We Update? Development of TC Model
1994
1998
2003
2009
Tranplan+ Transport
Base Year: 1988
Future Year: 2020
TAZs: 138(132+6)zones
Household Travel Survey: 1990
(Samples: 12,000)
Base Year: 1994
Future Year: 2021
TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones
Household Travel Survey: 1995
(Samples: 1,700)
TransCAD
Base Year: 2001
Future Year: 2031
TAZs : 257(253+4)zones
Household Travel Survey: No
Base Year: 2007
TAZs: 257(253+4)zones
The Household Travel Survey has been not conducted since 1995.
TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps.
Final model only has OD matries and the highway network.
These data are out-of-date, incomplete or inaccurate.

8. TCModel 2011 How Do We Update ? TCModel 1994 Update Major updates
Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy !
Better Data
Good Tools
Update
screen line survey and cordon line survey
Select a new modeling platform
(CUBE)
Update travel behavior survey
TCModel 1994 Update
Check and adjust trip generation rates
Reconstruct the highway network and transit network
Update and forecast the demographic data
Check and update the Traffic Analysis Zones

9. How Do We Update ? – Model Methodology Outline
Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model
Traffic Assignment
HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model
PT: Best-Path
Mode Split
Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference
Multinomial Logit Model(MNL)
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Impedance Function: Gamma Function
Trip Generation
Production: Cross-classification
Attraction: Multiple Regression
Module
Approaches

10. Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Model Structure
4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Traffic Assignment
Mode Split

11. Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Model Characteristics
Traffic Analysis Zones
Internal: 320 zones
External: 7 zones
Reserve: 16 zones
Total number of zones: 343 zones
Network
Total number of links: 42,681 links
Transit Lines: 335 lines
Analytical Modes
Car
Motor
Bus
Taiwan Rail
MRT
Analytical Period
Weekday
24hrs
Peak hour

12. Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Scenario Management Interface
This provides a convenient interface for defining scenarios, editing and running the scenarios.
Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) , 2041(Y130)
Scenarios:
Land Use Policies: Without TOD , With TOD
Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare

13. Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Applications of Model Outputs
Boarding Passengers
Passengers Per Hour in Peak Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d)
Passenger Kilometers Traveled (PKMT)
Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT)
Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKMT)
Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT)
Average Speeds
Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios
Model Outputs
Station Design
Train Operation Plan
Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis
Financial Viability Analysis
Policy Analysis
Traffic Impact Analysis
Sreen Line Analysis
Applications of Model Outputs

14. The end Thank you! E-mail : teresa@thi.com.tw
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau