1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to TRB Planning Applications Conference presented by Elizabeth Sall Maren Outwater Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Metropolitan Transportation Commission California High-Speed Rail Authority May 9, 2007 Bay Area/California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study

2. 1 Model Overview Forecast all interregional trips within California Forecast intraregional trips in largest urban areas Induced travel for interregional trips

3. 2 Integrated Modeling Process Peak and off-peak time periods Highway, air, conventional and high-speed rail modes Trip Frequency Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Destination Choice Mode Choice Intraregional Models Interregional Models Travel Times Trip Assignment Travel Times

4. 3 Networks Highway Air Rail Local Transit

5. 4 Data for Model Validation Travel surveys American Traveler Survey (ATS) Caltrans Household Travel Survey Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Volume data Air passengers Rail passengers Highway volumes

6. 5 Trip Frequency Model Validation Remainder of CA Los Angeles Region San Francisco Region San Diego Region Sacramento Region Short Model Trips by Purpose and Region 0 100 200 300 400 500 CommuteBusinessRecreation Other In Thousands Long Model Trips by Purpose and Region 0 50 100 150 200 250 CommuteBusinessRecreation Other In Thousands

7. 6 Destination Choice Model Validation0 5 10 15 20 25 LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego LA to SF Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other to SJV To/From Monterey/ Central Coast To/From Far North To/From W. Sierra Nevada Observed Model Trips by Travel Market (in Percent)

8. 7 Mode Choice Model Validation Short Business Short Commute Short Other Long Business Long Other Observed Auto99.7%99.5%99.9%91.6%91.5% Air0.0% 8.2%7.9% Rail0.3%0.5%0.1%0.2%0.7% Model Auto99.7%99.5%100.0%89.8%88.5% Air0.0% 10.0%10.6% Rail0.3%0.5%0.0%0.2%0.9%

9. 8 Air Assignment Validation Air Boardings by Market (in Thousands)0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego LA to SF Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other Observed Model

10. 9 2030 Travel Markets for Interregional Trips 2.5 million daily trips (0.7 million daily trips in 2000 business plan) Market Annual Trips (in millions) LA to Sacramento 8 LA to San Diego 134 LA to SF 20 Sacramento to SF 68 Sacramento to San Diego 2 San Diego to SF 9 LA/SF to SJV 137 Other to SJV 204 To/From Central Coast 158 To/From Far North 120 To/From W. Sierra Nevada 36

11. 10 Door to Door Travel Times – Example South San Francisco to Central LA Travel Time Components – Door to Door 100200300400500600 Travel Time in Minutes Air HSR Auto Access Origin to Station Terminal Curb to Waiting Area Wait Board Vehicle Line-Haul In-Vehicle Terminal Seat to Curb Egress Station to Destination 0

12. 11 Level of Service and Mode Choice – Example South San Francisco to Central LAMode Door to Door Times (minutes) Cost (2005 $) Headway (minutes) Mode Shares BusinessOther Auto541 $84n/a 15% 37% High Speed Rail 270 $541414%37% Air236 $139972%26%

13. 12 Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 In Millions 2000 Business Plan Base Higher Air and Auto Cost Pacheco376595 Altamont6994 Percent Difference +4 percent -1 percent Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base

14. 13 Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 by Market In Millions 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total Boardings by Market LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego LA to SF Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other to SJV Intraregion (1) Pacheco Pass Alternative Base Altamont Pass Alternative Base In Millions

15. 14 2030 Mode Shares by Travel Market 020406080100 LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego LA to SF Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other to SJV AutoAirRailHSR

16. 15 Interregional HSR Ridership by Purpose Business Short 8% Recreation/Other Short 3% Commute Short 8% Business/Commute Long 32% Recreation/Other Long 49%

17. 16 Sensitivity TestsTest Change in HSR Ridership Change in HSR Revenues BusinessOther Increase HSR Fares (25 percent) -8 percent-15 percent+2 percent Double HSR Frequency+12 percent+22 percent+16 percent Increase Air and Auto Times (6 percent), Increase Air and Auto Costs (50 percent) +29 percent+94 percent+53 percent

18. 17 Fare Structure Interregional fares set to 50 percent of air fare in SF to LA market Intraregional fares set to 50 percent higher than commuter rail 25 percent increase in fares caused 13 percent drop in ridership 2 percent increase in revenues Market Average Fare LA to Sacramento $ 55 LA to San Diego $ 20 LA to SF $ 56 Sacramento to SF $ 37 Sacramento to San Diego $ 66 San Diego to SF $ 68 LA/SF to SJV $ 38 In 2005 dollars

19. 18 Annual Interregional Revenues in 2030 In Millions 2000 Business Plan Base Higher Air and Auto Cost Pacheco$1,214$2,377 $3,724 Altamont$2,454$3,621 Percent Difference+3 percent-3 percent Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base In 2005 dollars

20. 19 Annual Intraregional Ridership and Revenue in 2030 Urban Area Boardings (in millions) Revenues (in millions) San Francisco Bay Area 4.4$41 Los Angeles Region15.7$142 San Diego Region0.4$4 Total20.5$186 A 50 percent increase in air and auto costs would increase intraregional ridership and revenues by 6 percent, or 21.7 million annual HSR riders and $197 million in revenues In 2005 dollars

21. 20 Sources of HSR Ridership Interregional trips Air16% Rail3% Auto79% Induced2%

22. 21 Total Statewide HSR Ridership and Revenue Base (1) Higher Air and Auto Cost (2) 2030 Annual Ridership in Millions Pacheco 86 86 117 117 Altamont 90 90 116 116 Percent Difference +5 percent -1 percent 2030 Annual Revenues in Millions Pacheco $2,563 $2,563 3,921 3,921 Altamont $2,640 $2,640 3,818 3,818 Percent Difference +3 percent -3 percent

23. 22 Reports Available on the CHSRA Web Site Interregional Model System Development Level-of-Service Assumptions and Forecast Alternatives Findings from the Second Peer Review Panel Meeting and Findings from the First Peer Review Panel Meeting Survey Documentation Socioeconomic Data, Transportation Supply, and Base Year Travel Patterns Data

24. 23 Next Steps Generate data for environmental studies Conduct additional alternative tests Finalize intraregional models in Southern California