1. Israel’s National Security In Crisis

2. The Rise and Fall of Strategies Relevancy Paradigm ‘relevant’ to reality Paradigm Eroded Paradigm Loses Relevancy New Paradigm Generations Strategies in the Flat World A few years Time

3. Israel’s National Security Concept Time Relevancy Ben Gurion’s Seminar 1947 2000~ 2nd Lebanon War Tahdiah with Hamas Israel secure Logic of Implosion Israel’s Code Broken Winograd Commission UNSCR 1701 Billions of Dollars + + 1936-45 Israel suffering from Strategic Inferiority

4. Israel losing to Resistance Network Failure to topple Hamas 2 nd Lebanon War Convergence Plan Annapolis Stalemate Around Gaza > 0 : 5 Ideology + Strategy + Nuclear Weapons = New Strategic Challenge 1234

5. IDF SuperiorityArab States: Strategic balance Resistance Network Outflanking IDF Resistance Network Bypasses IDF Israeli Inferiority IL ArabsHome frontIntl Arena

6. Basic Assumptions: Strategic A-Symmetry Hierarchical top-down structureFlat network based structure Finality of claims / PeacePermanent Resistance High intensity / VictoryLow intensity / Attrition / Implosion No civilian casualtiesAttack civilians / Human shields IL Arabs = domestic issueIL Arabs = Strategic leverage Battleground: Military fieldBattleground: Home front & intl. arena Control over PL = Military NecessityControl over PL = Strategic Asset Authority with responsibilityAuthority w/o responsibility

7. Undermine 2SS / Promote 1SS Tactics: Overstretch No Finality of claims Basic De-Legitimacy Demography / Intl Law Logic of Implosion Vision: Islamic State in place of Israel Democracy Demography Territory Identity

8. Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06) Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) Occupation Serves the Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Military Means De-Legitimize Promote 1SS Oppose 2SS Israeli Implosion Single Arab State in its place War Against Occupation Continuation of the Occupation Meshal: “If Hamas cannot protect the Palestinian people, let the PA go to hell…” (3/19/06)

9. The Threat: International Inversion Logic of Implosion Occupation is Bad for Israel Global Changes: USA Declining New Forces Rise Inversion: From Two-State Solution to One-state Solution Israeli-Arabs: Internationalization Palestinization Challenge to IL’s Charecter International Inversion Towards the 2SS Anti-Zionism rising Failure of Negotiation By the ‘Dream-Team’

10. Ben Gurion’s Seminar (3-11/47) Focus Systemic & Systematic Approach Learning Process Defining the Challenge Formulating structural & Operational approach National Security Strategy & Victory Objectives Why it was Successful 2008: A New Seminar is Required