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Israel’s National Security Doctrine Limmud Conference.

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Presentation on theme: "Israel’s National Security Doctrine Limmud Conference."— Presentation transcript:

1 Israel’s National Security Doctrine Limmud Conference

2 The Strategy of Strategic Surprise SituationalStrategic In order to deal with these situations, one needs to undergo fundamental learning / change one’s personal perception (Mindset) Irrelevant 'interpretive conceptual system' in terms of understanding the individual relative to his environment An event in which information was lacking, the information didn’t arrive in time or wasn’t properly analyzed

3 The Process of Strategic Surprise Stage 1: Relevancy Stage 2: Incubation Stage 3: Denial Stage 4: Fundamental Learning Strategic Surprise Relevancy Gap Strategi c Surpris e Copying without translating Difference that makes the difference New trend in the neighborhood? Situational (Technical) response to Fundamental (Adaptive) Problem Change in priorities and values

4 Complex Challenges Volatile Environment Need for Substantive Broad Long Term View Short, Unstable Tenures Fragmentation of Knesset and Government Incentive for Short Term Thinking Address for Decision Makers Model to Emulate Training Future Strategists The Israeli Context

5 Strategic Surprise in Israel’s National Security Strategi c Surpris e Relevancy Gap Strategi c Surpris e הזירה המרכזית: צבאית האיום הקיומי הוא פיזי צה"ל הגורם העיקרי Stage 1: Relevancy Stage 2: Incubation Stage 3: Denial

6 Time Organizing logic ~ Political- diplomatic arena Military- security arena It doesn’t matter what the goyim say. It matters what the Jews do (Ben Gurion) Legitimacy for Jewish homeland Facilitating Jewish Aliya Pol Dip Challenge London Conference White Paper 1939 Partition Plan: Arabs threaten to invade Ben Gurion’s Seminar Israel’s National Security Mindset Sec. Doctrine: IL win war Military vs. Security Activism Alliance with Superpower (France / US) Alliance of Periphery

7 relevancy Israel’s Traditional Security Doctrine List of Threats Conventional: Army Terror / Guerilla Main Working Assumptions Nuclear Main Arena: Military Security Existential Threat: Physical IDF protect the nation Decisive Victory Over enemy Early Warning To prepare forces Deterrence So enemy won’t initiate war Time Quick Decisive Victory Large Army relative to population Home-Front Role Secondary Force planning: Tanks and Planes Strategic Early WarningAmbiguous Nuclear Policy Closeness to Superpower Striving for short wars Keeping strong army w/o economic collapse Army responsible for home front High quality intelligence agencies Special relations with USA Taking war onto enemy’s territory Controlling territory main leverage Creating an Iron Wall

8 Updates to Israel’s Security Doctrine Meridor Commission: Defence Low intensity conflict The Dahiya Doctrine Guiding Assumptions of Nat Sec unchanged Arena: Military IDF responsible

9 Divergent Reality: The Resistance Network Existential Threat Military Main Arena: Security Deterrence, Early Warning, Decisive Victory IDF responsible for protecting nation Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) Abu Mussa Marzouk: “failure of the political process will bring about the destruction of Israel (5/15/07) New non conventional tactics required. Home Front + Diplomatic also essential Synchronized Victories: Need strong foreign affairs establishment Resistance Network focuses on soft underbelly – asymmetric warfare, international arena and home front Base: Middle East Main Strategy: Undermine 2SS / ‘Logic of Implosion’ Main Tactics: Asymmetrical Warfare, ‘overstretch’ Characteristics: Islamist (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) Military Superiority

10 Divergent Reality: Strategic A-Symmetry Hierarchical top-down structureFlat network based structure Finality of claims / PeacePermanent Resistance High intensity / VictoryLow intensity / Attrition / Implosion No civilian casualtiesAttack civilians / Human shields IL Arabs = domestic issueIL Arabs = Strategic leverage Battleground: Military fieldBattleground: Home front & intl. arena Control over PL = Military NecessityControl over PL = Strategic Asset Authority with responsibilityAuthority w/o responsibility

11 Divergent Reality: Delegitimization Network Base: Europe & North America Main Strategy: Promote 1SS / turn IL into pariah state Main Tactics: BDS, lawfare, apartheid parallels Characteristics: Red-Green Alliance, global spread, focused around hubs & catalysts The key: Blur difference between delegitimizers & critics Coercion only way: BDS Essentialism Liberalising the arguments Demonization: IL= apartheid Double standards / singling out Lawfare Red Green Liberal Elite: From Kibbutz to Kibbush

12 The Feedback Loop Resistance NetworkDelegitimization Network Undermine 2SS Advance 1SS narrative Implosion threat Fundamental Delegit Flotilla planned for 16 months in countries friendly to IL Hamas drew upon Europe-based Muslim Brotherhood network The Flotilla represents an evolved stage in the two networks’ coordination

13 Crisis in Israel’s National Security Main Problem: Hasbara / Policy Commitment to peace & HR vital – but there will always be an outstanding issue (Shebaa Farms Syndrome): Hasbara important but delegitimization is ideology driven Increasing threat from Liberal Progressive Elite Israel’s position vis-à-vis Western Govts remains stable New dynamic – new threat (advancing 1SS) Attacks on Israel are nothing new

14 Creation of Existential Political Threat Danger: Turning Into Pariah State Demonization De-Legitimacy 3 rd World Pact Change in Balance of Power US: Asset to Liability? Bottom Up Processes Intl Inversion towards 2SS

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