1. Chapter Five Processes and Cycles of Population Change

2. Population Growth 1 billion - 1820 (estimated) 2 billion - 1930 3 billion - 1950 4 billion - 1975 5 billion - 1987 6 billion - 1999 10 billion - 2050 (projected)

3. World Population Trends -1 Every year, 163 million born and 86 million die, 77 million added to the earth. (check your book) Stabilizing trends predicted - UK, France and other developed countries. But, countries with higher population still need to work harder to slow down the growth rate. (Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico…..)

4. Trends - 2 65-69 @ 2.1 %, 85 -89 @ 1.6 %,97 @ 1.5 % Africa - 2.8 % (increased from 2.4%) India - 1.9% (decreased from 2.6%), at 1 billion, India is still growing faster than the world as a whole. China, 1980 imposed one-child policy, at 1% Muslim countries - North Africa and Southwest Asia. Higher than they were 30 years ago.

5. Trends - 3 South America growth rate is declining to 1.7% from 3%. Brazil dropped from 2.9% (60s) to 1.5% (current). Most of the low growth rate countries are developed countries (US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Taiwan). Russia is an exception.

6. Dimensions of Population Growth Linear vs. Exponential Growth Doubling time - time to double the current population RateDT1998 0.5141Ireland 0.7594Australia 1.0070China 1.5046Brazil 2.0035Costa Rica 2.5028Chad 3.0024Nigeria 3.5020Yemen

7. Figure 5-2 Population Growth Linear Exponential Doubling Time

8. Figure 5-3 Population Explosion

9. Thomas Malthus “An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society” - published in 1798 Population grows at “Geometric rate” and Food supply “Arithmetic rate” UK would be struck by hunger in 50 yrs.- his prediction, but………..

10. Malthusians 2 Colonization and migration Food supply grows exponentially neo-Malthusians - who share his concern

11. Population Structure Age-Sex Pyramids Broad bases - high fertility and mortality Rectangular - lower fertility and mortality Japan and France - smaller family, middle class support young and old. Not enough young workers.

12. Population distribution Under age 15 Aged 60 or older World Developed regions Less developed regions Least developed countries 30 19 33 43 10 19 8 5 Pop Density km 2 44 22 57 30

13. Figure 5-4 Age-Sex Pyramids for countries with High Growth Rates

14. Figure 5-5 Age-Sex Pyramids for countries with Low Growth Rates

15. Natural Increase The rate of Natural Increase = No. of births - No. of deaths, during a specific period. CBR - Crude Birth Rate, No. of live births/yr/1,000 CDR - Crude Death Rate, No. of deaths/yr/1,000

16. The Birth Rate High CBR - Africa and Southwest Asia Low CBR - Europe, N. America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and China. Except for China, they are all modern, industrialized, and urbanized countries. CBR is related to the country’s level of economic development (not China) and also the cultural traditions.

17. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) TFR - No. of children per woman of childbearing age. Kenya - 8.1 @80’, 5.4@97’ Nigeria and Pakistan - 6 Rate is declining in the world.

18. CDR or mortality rate Declined more dramatically than CBR and TFR The low CDR in Countries in Southeast,which is not correlated with economic development, can be explained by the diffusion of health facilities, medicines, hygienic practices, pesticides use and improved nutrion. Infant mortality rate

19. Limits on Population Growth Epidemics and plagues limited the population growth in the past, e.g. in England Famines in India and China, 18th and 19th centuries. Wars

20. The Second Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution In Europe, 18th century, 2nd Agricultural Revolution: farming methods improved, crop yields increased, more storage capacities. 19th Century, Industrial Revolution: more sanitation facilities and medical practices

21. Factors affect the growth rate in the past Vaccination reduced the death rate in 19th century Colonization increased the population in colonized regions - by introducing the new methods of sanitation and medical techniques.

22. Demographic Change TP = OP + B + - D + I - E TP: total population OP: original population B: births D: deaths I: immigration E: emigration

23. The Demographic Transition 1. High Stationary stage: high fertility, mortality rates and variable population, but little long-term growth. 2. Early expanding stage: high fertility rate and declining mortality. 3.Late expanding stage:declining fertility,and low mortality and significant growth 4.Low stationary stage: low fertility and mortality and a very low rate of growth

24. Demographic Cycle Low Growth Increasing Growth High Growth Decreasing Growth Low Growth Time Per 1000 per year 50 40 30 20 10 0 Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 11/12

25. Demographic Change in Developing Countries - Wide base vs narrow base - Sri Lanka - birth rate is down - Kerala in India 1.1% vs 1.9% in India literacy rate 90% vs 50% in India