Review What is the current world population?
Why is Physiological density a better way of calculating population statistics than ‘regular’ arithmetic density? Why does Canada have a low agricultural density? List the 10 largest countries (in terms of population) Review
10 most populous countries (2014)
China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Russia Japan *Highest density of top 10 **Only declining country of top 10 10 most populous countries (2014)
Where has the world’s population increased?
Measures of Population Change
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Total # of births/year for every 1000 people Ranges 5-50 (high 30+) Crude Death Rate (CDR) or Mortality Rate Total # of deaths/year for every 1000 people Ranges 1-28 In 1994, CDRs for LDCs dropped below MDCs & have remained lower ever since Natural Increase Rate (NIR) % in which a population grows in a year CDR-CBR Excludes migration Ranges (-0.1)-3.4 Population Growth Rate (PGR) NIR & NMR (impact of migration) Measures of Population Change
World Population Growth 1950–2000
Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.
Natural Increase World NIR = 1.3% All-time peak was in 1963 = 2.2%
Small changes in NIR = BIG impacts Doubling time: # of years it takes to double a population Rule of 70/72 (divide 70/72 by NIR) Almost 100% of NI is in LDCs Africa (Sub-Saharan), Asia, Latin America & Middle East (NIR +2%) Correlation between high NIR rates & low status of women…..why??? Natural Increase
NIR Example Country A has a BR of 22/1000
Country A has a DR of 12/1000 NIR = 10/1000 or 1% NIR Example
Natural Increase Rates
Fig. 2-7: The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): ave
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): ave. # of children a woman will have in her child-bearing yrs (15-49) Since 1960, ave. TFR in LDCs has fallen from 6.0 to 2.9 (largest decline in L.A. & Asia) *more rapid than expected World average = 2.4 20 years ago = 3.8 SS Africa = 6+ MDCs = 1.6 20 years ago = 2.0 Fertility
Mortality Life Expectancy: # of yrs a newborn can expect to live
Largely influenced by IMRs Women live longer than men 70+ in MDCs & as little as late- 30s in SS Africa mainly due to AIDS; Botswana/Zimbabwe Japan has the highest LE Can change quickly Males in USSR dropped from 68 to 62 following collapse of communism and now in Russia for males it’s 58 Mortality
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): # of babies under 1 yr that die annually compared to live births
Reflect overall health of a society 10% in LDCs, less than 5% in MDCs Higher in USA than in Canada/most of Europe Leading cause of death; diarrhea & malnutrition Lowest rates (under 3/1000) in Japan, Singapore & Sweden Highest rates (125/1000+) in Sierra Leone & Afghanistan (1 in every 8) Large differences within countries (race) Mortality cont’d..
Life Expectancy at birth
Fig. 2-11: Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries.
South Asia Most important geographic region to pop. Growth
India (PGR 1.3)to overtake China in coming years (PGR 0.4) Sri Lanka (21 million) only country with growth rate lower than world average in this region Pakistan & Bangladesh have a combined pop. of 300 million South Asia
Projected Growth Currently worlds most populous region is East Asia
China’s NIR has fallen below 1% Japan’s pop. Beginning to decline Growth between Africa will account for +1/3, outnumbering China by 8x India reached 1 billion in 2000, is projected to grow by an additional 50% Europe’s pop. Is projected to ↓ by 70 million Projected Growth
Do you notice any patterns???
Highest Birth Rates Rwanda Malawi Yemen Uganda Ethiopia Niger Mali Burundi Afghanistan Tanzania Lowest Birth Rates Italy (Roman Catholic?!?!) Greece Japan Spain Austria Germany Hungary Denmark Portugal Do you notice any patterns???
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