1. © Fraunhofer ISI Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe SÜD Heidelberg, November 2011 FUTURE ELECTRIC CARS – VEHICLES OF THE FUTURE?

2. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 2 Myth: Electric vehicles are useless – they cant go far.

3. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 3 Typical daily driving distances are short. Most (80%) of day-travels are shorter than 60 km. Few (8 %) of day-travels are longer than 130 km Myth: Electric vehicles are useless – they cant go far. Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI Plug-in-HybridPropertyGasoline vehicle 3 minutes + 2 hours > 700 km 3 minutes 50 + 600 km Range Refueling Duration every day + When necessary Every 2 weeks Refueling Frequency Battery electric vehicle 0.5 - 8 hours < 150 km Every 3 days or 30% every day Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances Electric vehicles

4. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 4 Myth: Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity.

5. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 5 Take 1 Million electric vehicles, giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh = 10 minutes of the average German electricity need Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW = 2.4% of installed German power (155 GW in 2009) Electricity need of 1 million vehicles: Driving 14 300 km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km = 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity Myth: Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity. Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISI Drawing: Heyko Stöber

6. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 6 Myth: Electric vehicles need public charging points.

7. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 7 Myth: Electric vehicles need public charging points. Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI Charging at home: cheap & easy The majority of car users has a fixed place for his/her car (either a garage or a place at home) Even in larger cities (>100.000 inhabitants) only some people (22% in Germany) have no fixed parking place Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances To start a mass market, no expensive infrastructure needed

8. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 8 Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles 4 The Future of eletric vehicles 5 Conclusion 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths

9. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 9 A growing mobility demand faces limited fossile resources Source: Shell, WBCSD Growing demand for oil cannot be covered sustainably

10. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 10 The EUs long term goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80% Power production and road transport have to become almost CO2-free This is impossible with efficiency gains in combustion engines New technologies and concepts are clearly needed. Electric vehicles powered by renewable energies can contribute significantly To achieve Europes climate targets, a drastic reduction in transport CO2-emissions is needed Source: www.roadmap2050.eu

11. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 11 Electric vehicles locally produce less noise and emissions They create a calmer and cleaner local environment But their production is very energy consuming Electric vehicles can reduce emissions and noise in your local environment Source: Fraunhofer ISI

12. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 12 Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 4 The Future of electric vehicles 5 Conclusion 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they green?

13. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 13 The first road vehicle achieving a speed of more than 100 km/h The French electric vehicle La jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899

14. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 14 Invention of electric vehicle 1834 Large market shares around 1900 Short History of electric vehicles First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in 1899 Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster from 1920 until today Renewed interest in 1980s after oil crises Todays batteries allow longer ranges Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913 Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia

15. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 15 80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids German vehicle stock in 2011 Vehicles in Germany Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),

16. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 16 How does an electric vehicle work? Battery electric vehicle: Small number of main components: Electric motor Large battery AC/DC converter Electronics... No oil or fuel tank No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.) Hybrid electric vehicle: Small combustion engine Small fuel tank Electronics Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell Electric vehicle several wheels and a plug Source: Bosch AG

17. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 17 The energy density of current batteries sets limits to the use of electric vehicles Quelle: GM, 2009

18. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 18 A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles Electric vehicles produced in 2010 Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010

19. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 19 Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – 2014 by major manufacturers in the German market When can we buy eletcric vehicles? Simple hybrids already available Only some plug-in hybrids announced Many battery electric vehicles underway

20. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 20 Electric vehicles come in a broad variety Plug-in hybrid passenger car Small electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid LDV Battery LDVs Elektroroller Sports cars today soon Off-road duty vehicle

21. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 21 Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015): Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO) How much does an electric vehicle cost? Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI Fuel Vehicle purchase Battery costs Maintenance Costs in cent per kilometer

22. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 22 Political actions: Non-financial incentives Support by the German government on electric mobility No direct purchase support Research funding: 2 million No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km) low tax for commercial cars Target: 10% of governmental vehicles Use of bus lanes for EVs Free city entry 1 million by 2020 Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011

23. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 23 In the beginning, electric vehicles will mainly target a niche market Share of City Traffic 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 0%20%40%60%80%100% Annual Mileage (in km) Selection of Propulsion Technology - 2015 (in relation to mileage and share of city traffic) EVs only in some segments profitable Attractive first user segments –Commuters –Second-car users –Full time employees from areas with less than 100,000 inhab. Potential of up to 4% of car users (2015) in existing infrastructure - equivalent to 1.6 mn. Battery Electric Vehicle Internal Combustion Engine Source:Own calculations Trip Length Restrictions Utilization Restrictions

24. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 24 EVs are the most efficient propulsion technology and can reduce CO 2 -emissions in transport Note:BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-Ester Source:Own calculations and LBST Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies Emissions in GHG-Equivalents (in g/km) Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis) 0%20%40%60%80% 100% 0 50 100 250 300 350 150 200 Coal-to- Liquid ICE Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bio- diesel (RME) Biofuels Less emissions More efficient Battery Electric Vehicle (Wind) Plug-In Hybrid (EU mix) BEV (EU mix) Plug-In Hybrid (Wind)

25. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 25 How green are electric vehicles? Electricity generation Vehicle production Battery production Additional battery Electric vehicles Conventional vehicles GHG potential in tons CO2e The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation need to be taken into account With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2 emissions are possible

26. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 26 Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 4 The Future of electric vehicles 5 Conclusion 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they green?

27. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 27 Pluralism Szenarios I/IV Referenzszenario Energiekonzept Dominance Market scenarios for Germany

28. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 28 The future of alternative fuels – various technologies for different applications high distance Vehicle weight low Short trips (city) Long trips (highway) City LDVs Electro cycle 2 nd car Long range public transport Public transport transportation Everyday use acceptance Battery vehicle Plug-in hybrids Fuel cell vehicles 2nd generation biofuels safety Energy density Economy of fuel challenges Economy of propulsion system

29. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 29 Depending on market penetration, charging infrastructure has to change Time Charging Infrastructure Innovators´ Market Niche Market (e.g. commuters, business clients) Market Penetration Mass Market Grid Integration Control Time-of-use rates Bi-directional connection Demand Side Management (Dynamic rates) System Services Load shift and active load leveling Load shift (negative supply of balancing power) Infrastructure Norms and standards Mainly private infrastructure Selective public infrastructure to support early adoption Smart Grids Smart Metering Expansion of semi- public charging infrastr. Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration Source:Own visualization

30. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 30 Conclusions 2 How much do electric vehicles cost? They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current conventional vehicles Special charging stations are required later 3 Are electric vehicle green? Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions, but only when charged from renewable energy sources Their production is very energy intense 1 What are electric vehicles? Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible Are electric vehicles the vehicles of the future? They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2 emissions Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially fuel cell vehicles

31. © Fraunhofer ISI Seite 31 Special thanks to Martin Wietschel Fabian Kley Till Gnann Wolfgang Schade Thank you for listening! References: Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen, Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 02/2009, 173-183. Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41. Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf. Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation. Karlsruhe, 2011. Thank you