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An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Floridas Public Buses AER Group, Tallahassee FL Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen.

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Presentation on theme: "An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Floridas Public Buses AER Group, Tallahassee FL Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Floridas Public Buses AER Group, Tallahassee FL Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen

2 Project Scope Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric Direct cost savings Indirect benefits 2

3 Electric Bus Alternative The Proterra EcoRide Equivalent lifespan of a diesel bus (12 years) Improved fuel efficiency Simplified motor FastFill Charging Station 3

4 Methodology 4 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities

5 Methodology 5 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities Purchase Price Facility Upgrades

6 Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012 6 $790,000 $480,000

7 Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel 7 $310,000 Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

8 Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of Initial Investment for Electric and Diesel Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD 8 Tallahassees StarMetro received 100% federal funding for electric buses in 2011

9 Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel, but Offset by Federal Grants 9 $62,000 Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012

10 Methodology 10 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities Maintenance Fuel Cost

11 Electric Bus Has a Simpler Mechanical System 11 Proterra Inc., 2013 Engine Engine Oil Traction Motor Gearbox Battery ElectricElectricvs.vs.DieselDiesel Engine Components Fuel Systems Exhaust Systems Belts Alternator Retarder

12 Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel 12 US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

13 Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel 13 US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011 $112,000

14 Electricity and Diesel Price Projections Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035 14 Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013

15 Source: US Energy Information Administration 15 Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification

16 Source: US Energy Information Administration 16 Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification Florida Projection

17 Electricity Prices Vary Due To Numerous Utilities Throughout Florida 17 Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013

18 Buses Concentrated in Densely Populated Areas 18 Source: Florida Department of Transportation

19 Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12% 19 Source: EIA, FMEA

20 Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12% 20 Source: EIA, FMEA

21 Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel Efficient than Diesel Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD 21

22 Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric $450K less than Diesel 22 Source: Penn State, NTD $445,000

23 Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel 23 Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

24 Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel 24 Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA $464,000

25 Conversion Plan – Purchase 200 Electric Buses Each Year 25 Full Conversion

26 Annual Total Cost of Diesel Fleet and Conversion 26 Initial Investment Increased Fuel Efficiency Battery Purchase Full Conversion Total Cost Difference

27 Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per Year 27 Initial Deficit Recoupment $120 million Full Conversion

28 Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Federal Grants 28 Reference Constant Grants $85 M

29 Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035 29 Source: US Energy Information Administration

30 Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035 30 Source: US Energy Information Administration

31 Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Fuel Prices 31 Constant Fuel Prices Reference $80 M

32 Methodology 32 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities

33 Methodology 33 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities

34 Electrifying Public Bus System May Create New Jobs 34

35 Additional Electricity Demand May Require a New Power Plant in Florida Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for electricity A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed 35 Source: Florida Public Service Commission

36 If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It Will Stimulate the Florida Economy CategoryEstimate Construction Spending$110 million Operating Cost$2.5 million/year Annual Sales$50 million/year New Jobs (direct & indirect) 100 permanent jobs Personal Income Increase$20 million 36 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.

37 Local Governments Can Divert Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Other Services If cost savings are spent on education : 37 CategoryEstimate Annual Cost Savings$120 million New Jobs (direct & indirect) 500 permanent jobs Personal Income Increase$40 million Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc.

38 Electrifying Public Bus System Could Reduce Negative Externalities Since 2001, clean diesel has helped reduce air pollutants CO2 emissions have not been reduced Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2? Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2? Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA 38

39 CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from Production of Electricity at Power Plants Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA 40 metric tons of CO 2 per bus annually 39

40 CO 2 Emissions Are Significantly Lower for Electric Buses CO 2 emissions are 75% lower for an electric bus! Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission 40

41 Electrifying Transit Will Continually Reduce CO 2 Emissions At full conversion, 300k tons of CO 2 can be saved 41 Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

42 Electrifying Could Reduce Externality Cost by as Much as $7M Annually 42 Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission $4m $4.5m $7.5m

43 Conclusion Impact of Electrifying Floridas Public Buses 43

44 Methodology 44 Impact Analysis Cost Comparison Additional Benefits Initial Investment Annual Expenditures Increased Economic Activity Reduced Externalities

45 Florida Would Benefit from Electrifying the Public Bus System 45 At full conversion: $120M Annual cost savings of $120M 600 jobs Creation of up to 600 jobs $7M Reduced externality effect by $7M economic sense It makes economic sense for Florida to adopt an electric bus system

46 46


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