1. How Obama Won: The American Presidential Election System
Kevin V. Mulcahy
Sheldon Beychok Distinguished Professor
of Political Science and Public Administration
Louisiana State University
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2. The United States of America

3. State of Louisiana

4. The American Presidential Election Process
How Obama Won
The American Presidential Election Process

5. The Road to the White House is a Two-Step Process
You must be nominated
After nomination, must be elected through the Electoral College

6. I. The Nomination Process

7. The Selection Process: Getting Nominated
Candidates for President are selected at their political party’s National Convention
Members of the National Convention are called Delegates
Delegate Selection – Presidential nominees are selected by the delegates to their party’s convention. Procedures for delegate selection are set by state law, but these must also conform to the general guidelines set by the national party. The number of delegates that a state has is roughly based on population and the state’s record of support for its party’s presidential candidates.
In sum, the number of delegates depend on state population and party loyalty. It is crucial to remember that the states nominate the President (as well as elect a President). This reflects the American Federal System of Government

8. Primaries
Primaries – intra-party elections fro the purpose of selecting delegates to the presidential conventions.
Very similar to voting in a regular election: going into a secret voting machine and choosing a candidate.
Primaries are usually open to party members; however, several states allow independents (that is, voters registered as unaffiliated).

9. Caucuses
Caucus- a method of selecting delegates to the nominating convention in which eligible voters of a particular party (and sometimes independents) participate in an open meeting in which their preferences are voiced.
Unlike a primary, it is neither secret nor quick. It involves a process of open debate and discussion that can often be time-consuming.
While this process is “democratic,” it has certain decided drawbacks.

10. For example, it requires the commitment of time that might not be possible for workers on fixed-shifts, mothers with children, and the elderly.
Moreover, it favors those with flexible work schedules (usually associated with high status jobs, or students), very firm ideological beliefs, and those with the verbal facility in which to articulate these. They can be called enthusiasts. For example the young, highly educated professionals that were crucial in Barack Obama’s winning of the nomination.
Turnout in both primaries and caucuses are very low in comparison to the general election. It is particularly low in a caucus because of the problems previously noted.

11. Democratic Primary/Caucus States

12. Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton
One of the greatest presidential nominating battles in American history
It went without letting up from the Iowa Caucus on January 3 and ended on June 3 with the Montana/South Dakota primaries.
This was the longest, most expensive, most reported and televised nomination struggle ever.
The candidates were extremely unusual: a woman and an African-American. On the other hand, both were lawyers, educated at elite universities and were both part of the liberal wing of the Democratic party.

13. Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton
Mrs. Clinton was in her second term as U.S. Senator from the state of New York.
Mr. Obama was in his first term as U.S. Senator from Illinois, having served three years, and before serving seven years in the Illinois state senate.
Despite somewhat limited experience as elected officials, both represented significant movements in American politics.
Mrs. Clinton, who had been the most politically active First Lady since Eleanor Roosevelt, was a symbol of feminist politics.
Mr. Obama, with a background in community organizing, is the most visible representative of American multi-culturalism as the first African-American candidate for president.

14. Mrs. Clinton was the clear favorite of the Democratic party leadership that grew up with the progressive politics of the sixties.
Mr. Obama was iconic in his youthful aura of change and hope, during a period of an increasingly unpopular war in the Middle East and a growing concern for the nation’s economy.
Their positions on the issues were virtually identical: Pro Health-Care, Opposed to the continuation of the Iraq War, Pro-Civil Rights, Pro-Labor. However, Mrs. Clinton was burdened with the legacy of a husband whose Presidency was marked by a controversial sex scandal.
Mr. Obama had the advantage of having a clean-slate with an untroubled personal life. With the exception of an admittance to youthful experimentation with marijuana. Interestingly, he represents the post-civil rights Black America.

15. Michelle & Barack
Hillary & Bill

16. Outcomes of Nomination Contest
Purple – Obama
Green – Clinton

17. Outcome of Nomination Contest
Final Number of Delegates
Barack Obama – 1763
Hillary Clinton – 1640
Neither candidate had the majority of delegates (2118) necessary to win the nomination.
The 825 Superdelegates (ex officio convention delegates by virtue of being elected official) could have voted for Mrs. Clinton and given her the nomination.
However they were split among themselves and the overwhelming consensus of the party was to ratify the popular vote winner in the primaries and caucuses.

18. Obama’s Nomination Success
Obama’s success in winning the nomination can be attributed to three things.
He clearly articulated a message of “Hope” that summarized the aspirations of many dissatisfied Democrats.
He understood from the beginning the importance of caucus states. he also understood that his enthusiastic supporters would turn out for these caucuses. By contrast, Mrs. Clinton underestimated the caucuses which have never been important to winning the nomination.

19. Mrs. Clinton won the primaries in the large industrial states that typically vote democratic. Mr. Obama won the primaries in the southern states typically because of a large African-American democratic party membership
In effect, Mrs. Clinton represented the traditional Democratic constituency and gaged her campaign accordingly. Mr. Obama in being an “outsider” mobilized a youthful, highly committed following around the promise of change.
Mrs. Clinton, fairly or unfairly, was associated with the partisan infighting, and strife of her husbands administration. Mr. Obama represented a new future encombered by the past and focused on the future. This point needs to emphasized again.

20. III. The Campaign
John McCain & Sarah Palin
Barack Obama & Joe Biden

21. Campaign Tactics
Strategy – a plan for developing, targeting, and tracking campaign resources
Basic Appeal – reasons to vote for this candidate (or reasons to vote against opposing candidate).
Partisan Appeals – tool usually used by the Democrats, as the “majority party”
Image – Presenting the candidate as a strong leader and commander in chief
Democratic Appeals – Economic interests; concerns for the common folks; high minimum wage; low unemployment expectations; increased social security benefits; labor unions; and for Obama, Health Care
Republican Appeals – Economic interests of the middle and upper classes; anti-inflation; party of business; strong national defense; appeals to the traditional values of the evangelical christians
Independents, who make up 40% of registered voters (Republicans roughly 28% and Democrats roughly 33%). You cannot win the presidency with just your own party. It is necessary to appeal to the unaffiliated voter

22. Campaign Fundraising Democratic Party $961,177,629
Republican Party $920,356,758
DNC $260,111,657
RNC $427,558,768
Total $1,704,144,812
Most of the money raised is spent on television advertising in the seven to nine states that are swing states; that is to say undecided.

23. Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections
Year
% Registered Voter Turnout
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
62.0%
59.0%
51.3%
49.0%
55.1%
50.3%
53.3%
52.8%
53.5%
55.2%
60.9%
61.9%
62.8%

24. The Generation Gap in the 2008 Presidential Vote by Age Group
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
TOTAL
Barack Obama
66%
52%
49%
51%
53%
John McCain
32%
46%
47%
Source: Data from the 2008 National Exit Poll Data, published in New York Times, November 9, 2008.
Voter turnout showed a decided increase after a general decline over the last 25 years.
This attributed to greater participation of African-Americans and younger voters.
The most enthusiastic supporters from the earliest days of the caucuses and primaries through the general election were visibly young.

25. V. The 2008 Election

26. Obama/McCain Campaign
American presidential elections are an extremely expensive undertaking. While there is a formula for public funding, most candidates chose to raise the money themselves.
Obama revolutionized fundraising by his use of the internet to selicit direct contributions on the net. This was very different from the traditional reliance on special interest groups and wealthy individuals.

27. Key Elements in Obama’s Success
In sum, the Obama campaign capitalized on the following:
His youthful appearance and manner
His inspiring rhetoric
An increasingly unpopular war in Iraq
An economic downturn
A remarkably poor campaign by John McCain that was signaled by his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

28. 2008 Election Outcome
Popular Vote:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 46%
Other: 1%

29. VI: The Electoral College

30. Electoral College
The single most important thing to remember is that the election is not a direct popular vote, but it is decided by a constitutionally created institution called the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
It is also worth noting that American elections have always been 2-Party contests. Since 1860 this has been between the Democrats and Republicans.

31. The Structure of the Electoral College
Each state has a distinct number of electors. Their votes are almost always cast for whomever wins the state popular election in a “winner-take-all” system. That is whoever wins a plurality of the state’s popular vote wins all of the states electoral college votes.
There are two exceptions to this rule. Maine (4 electors) and Nebraska
(5 electors) award their electoral votes as follows:
The candidate that has the largest amount of votes state wide gets the 2 Senatorial electors and the remaining electors are determined in the results of the Congressional districts.
The number of electors that a state has is the sum of the states two Senators and its number of members in the U.S. House of Representatives.
For example, Louisiana has 9 Electoral College votes. This equal its 7 members of the House of Representatives plus its 2 US Senators
California has the largest number of Electoral College votes with 55. Seven states and the District of Columbia of 3 Electoral College votes (it should be noted that the citizens of the District of Columbia vote only in presidential elections as noted in the twenty-third amendement of the constituion in 1961.

32. The total number of elector from the 50 states plus the District of Columbia is 538. In order to be elected President of the United States a majoriy of 271 is required.
If in the extremely unusual event that no candidate receives a majoriy of the electoral college votes, the choice is made in the US House of Representatives (essentially this has happened only once in 1824)
Even though presidential elections are conducted on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every four years, the “official election” takes place in the first week of January, when the Vice President of the United States (in his capacity as President of the Senate) formally counts the electoral votes when they are transmitted from the states.

33. Distribution of Electoral College Votes

34. The Case for the Electoral College
Admittedly, the electoral college is archaic, defies common sense notions of democratic choice, can lead to contentious outcomes
However, it does reflect the federal nature of American government (a nation of states), and the popular vote winner has prevailed in all but 3 cases (1824, 1876, 2000)
Direct election of the president would require a constitutional amendment which is impossible because of the number of small states that would have so much to loose with the change
The proportional and congressional district plans could be adopted on a state by state basis, but would increase the likely-hood of the election being thrown into the House of Representatives.

35. In Sum
The Electoral College stays because the consequences of “the evils that we know” are calculable compared to the “evil that we do not know”.