1. CHAPTER 14 Campaigns and Elections

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Learning Objectives
Describe the historical development of the presidential selection process
Describe the activities of presidential candidates as they compete for the “invisible primary”
Distinguish between primaries and caucuses, and assess how the timing of those contests plays a role in the outcome of the nomination process
Assess the role of national party conventions
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Learning Objectives
Compare and contrast incumbent races and open elections
Describe the strategies that candidates use to win elections
Critique the electoral college system
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Learning Objectives
Compare and contrast the factors that explain vote choices
Assess the impact of money on presidential campaigns, and describe the laws governing campaign finance
Define the power of incumbency, turnout levels, and presidential coattails in congressional elections
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5. American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective
Constitution does not include information on selecting a president
Founders envisioned presidential selection by men at a lofty level above partisan politics
Political parties supply framework for elections
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6. American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective
The Nomination Phase
Political parties select their “party ticket”
Constitution did not account for process of nomination
Process has evolved throughout the years
Caption to come (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
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7. American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective
Five Stages of contemporary presidential selection
Prenomination campaign
Nomination campaign
National conventions
General election campaign
Electoral college decision
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8. The Prenomination Campaign
Potential candidates “test the waters”
Begins the “weeding out” process
Invisible primary
Competition for front-runner status
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9. The Nomination Campaign
Primaries and Caucuses
Presidential primary
Open primary
Closed primary
Caucus
GOP presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with his wife, Callista, declaring victory in the South Carolina primary in January 2012.
T.J. Kirkpatrick/Getty Images
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10. The Nomination Campaign
Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire Contests
Small states with few delegates
Traditionally are the first two contests
Winner receives greater media attention
Loser written off as “unelectable”
Causes frontloading
Super Tuesday
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11. The Nomination Campaign
Nominating Conventions
Historically
Discussed the party platform
Selected the candidate to represent the party
Today
Week-long forum for parties and nominees
Introduce nominee to voters
Formally kick off the campaign
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12. The General Election Campaign
Incumbent Race versus Open Election
Incumbent: campaign focuses on past performance
Open: less focused on the past
Choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate
Attempt to balance ideological views and geographic coverage
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13. The General Election Campaign
Gathering a Winning Coalition of States
Strong Republican states - red
Strong Democratic states - blue
Battleground (“swing”) states - gold
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14. The General Election Campaign
Presidential Debates
Kennedy/Nixon first to generate interest
Large amount of attention paid to the debates
Impact on the outcome is unclear
Advertising
TV ads are important
Heighten name recognition
Negative ads
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15. The General Election Campaign
Electoral College Vote
Winner must receive majority of electoral college’s 538 votes
Number of electoral votes states receive
Number of senators plus number of representatives
Can change as a result of the official census
Minimum votes is three
Unit rule
Winner take all system
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16. The Electoral College Map
This map of the states depicts the number of electoral votes each state has as a result of the 2010 U.S. Census. The states shaded in red are those states whose electoral votes were cast for Republican Mitt Romney in The blue states’ electoral votes went to Democrat Barack Obama.
Source:
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17. Americans’ Support Using Popular Vote to Select the President
Source: Gallup polls conducted in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2011.
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Making a Vote Choice
Candidate Familiarity
Most basic voting cue is name recognition
Party Identification
Psychological attachment that affects voting
Issue Voting
Vote for someone who has same view on an issue
Most sophisticated type of voting behavior
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Making a Vote Choice
Retrospective Voting
Evaluating an incumbent’s past performance
Job approval rating
Candidate Image Voting
Perception of candidate to the voter
Strong use of media
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Campaign Funding
Funding is increasingly expensive
One of the most important functions of campaign
Good candidates have ability to raise money
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21. Fundraising by Presidential Candidates 1976-2008
Source:
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Campaign Funding
Sources of Funding
Individual citizens
Interest groups
Political action committees (PACs)
Political parties
House or Senate campaign war chest
Federal and state governments
Internet
Personal wealth
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Campaign Funding
In the 2008 Democratic nomination race, the Obama campaign perfected the art of the Internet fundraising. The site pictured here was used by the successful Obama to raise more than $100 million in small donations during that race.
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Campaign Funding
Regulating Campaign Financing
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)
Hard money
Soft money
Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Independent campaign expenditures
Supports the campaign but not a direct contribution
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)
Regulates soft money
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25. Congressional Campaigns and Elections
Presidential election years
All 435 seats in the House and one-third of the Senate seats are contested
Midterm congressional elections
Midway between presidential elections
All 435 House seats and another one-third of the Senate seats are contested
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Congressional Campaigns and Elections
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Congressional Campaigns and Elections
Midterm elections
Voter turnout tends to be lower
No presidential coattail effect
Favor candidates in party opposite the president’s
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28. Congressional Campaigns and Elections
Power of incumbency
Returned to office at high rates
Name recognition
Safe seats
Marginal seats
Franking privilege
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Safe Seats in Congress
Source: Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2006), Copyright ©2006 CQ Press, a division of Sage Publications; updated by authors
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