Presentation on theme: "Campaign Financing and Election Outcome"— Presentation transcript:
1 Campaign Financing and Election Outcome A study of the correlation between fundraising in the U.S. and popular votes in presidential elections
2 Overview Project Background Goals/Objectives Preliminary Comparison BrainstormingFederal Election CommissionGoals/ObjectivesPreliminary ComparisonElection 2000 and 2004Relationship FindingsElection 2008PrimariesRepublican CandidatesDemocratic CandidatesGeneral ElectionTotal Party ContributionsElectoral CollegeConclusionsLimitations and Future Work
3 Background Election 2008 in the media constantly First Presidential Election in 12 years with no previous ties to the White HouseGeneral Public knowledge about Campaign FinancingFederal Election Commission
4 Federal Election Commission Ensures that candidates and convention committees requesting public funds have satisfied the eligibility requirements.Reviews submitted contributionsAudits all public funding recipients to ensure that the funds were spent in compliance with the law
5 Presidential Candidates and the Federal Election Commission Only candidates seeking nomination by a political party for the office of President are eligible to receive primary matching fundsA candidate must establish eligibility by showing broad-based public support: must raise in excess of $5,000 in each of at least 20 states ($100,000).Although an individual may contribute up to $2,300 to a primary candidate, only a maximum of $250 per individual applies toward the $5,000 threshold in each state.
6 Presidential Candidates must agree to the following: Limit campaign spending for all primary elections to $10 million (plus a cost-of-living adjustment COLA). This is called the national spending limit.Limit campaign spending in each state to $200,000 plus COLA, or to a specified amount based on the number of voting age individuals in the state (plus COLA), whichever is greater.Limit spending from personal funds to $50,000.
7 Goals Presidential Elections 2000 and 2004 Presidential Election 2008 Show relationship between Campaign Contributions and Popular Vote by statePresidential Election 2008Predict Primary Election using Funds Raised from Quarters 1 and 2 of 2007Speculate General Election Results
8 ObjectivesInform average voter about the relationship between presidential campaign funding and political race outcomeIllustrate a relationship between popular votes and campaign funding
15 Democratic Primary Outcome Electoral VotesClinton: 284Obama: 167Edwards: 87Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winnerThe election of delegates to the Democratic National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factorTo account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner
16 Republican Primary Outcome Electoral VotesGuiliani: 237Romney: 231McCain: 70Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winnerThe election of delegates to the Republican National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factorTo account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner
17 General Election 2008Comparison of Republican Candidates vs. Democratic Candidates Funds RaisedTotals:Democrats: $108,837,196Republicans: $82,355,375
18 General Election Outcome Total Projected Electoral Votes:Democrats (Blue): 358/538 = 67%Republicans (Red): 180/538 = 33%
19 What about percentage error from past elections? Remember? States where candidates with more campaign contributions didn’t win the popular voteIn 2000, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 26%In 2004, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 14%Average is 20%So, assuming +/- 20% error…Democratic electoral votes: 250 – 466Republican electoral votes: 36 – 288Votes required to win election: 270Chance of Clinton victory: 91%Chance of Giuliani victory: 7%Chance of no electoral winner*: 2%2000 – 15 states2004 – 8 states* The new House of Representatives votes between the top three candidates to select a president.
20 Conclusions 2008 Presidential Race Democratic Party nominee: Hillary ClintonRepublican Party nominee: Rudy GiulianiInterestingly, neither of these candidates raised the largest amount of money in Q1 and Q2 of 2007Winning in highly populated states counts!In general election and Republican primary, state winner takes all
21 Conclusions Population Counts! 2004 Presidential Election Results by State2004 Presidential Election Results by Population CartogramSource:
22 Conclusions 44th President of the United States: Hillary Clinton Why? Clinton will win Democratic primary due to support in populous statesGeneral election relies heavily on patterns from 2000 and 2004: popular vote in ~80% states went to the candidate whose party raised more money in that state
23 LimitationsProblem: The primary/caucus process varies for each state and partySolution: Study the primary/caucus process for the 2008 election and develop a more complex formula for determining the winner
24 LimitationsProblem: Our study does not consider the impact of 3rd party and Independent candidates on the general electionProblem: Our study only includes the three front-runners for each party in primary predictionsSolution: Include additional candidates in our study.Ralph Nader won 3% of the popular vote in 2000.
25 LimitationsProblem: Our analysis relies on pattern established by two quarters of fundraisingPresidential primaries will take place after four quarters of fundraisingGeneral election contributions will also include federal matching fundsSolution: Study contributions to 2004 presidential candidates for the first two quarters of 2003
26 Conclusions Suggestions for similar projects Simplify your problem! Create a map templateStudy this subject closer toelection, if possible
27 Future WorkOur study does not account for contributions and voting at the county level, only the state level.2004 Presidential Election Results by State2004 Presidential Election Results by CountySource:
28 Future Work Revisit this project in early January 2008 Fundraising figures for all four quarters of 2007Directly before state primaries beginCalculate federal matching funds for Democratic and Republican nominees
29 Future Work Use this data to plan a campaign trail Campaign staffers decide to plan visits to states where races are very closeOur Suggestions:(W) denotes the candidate currently predicted to winDemocratic PrimaryCalifornia is very close between Obama and Clinton (W)Iowa is very close between Obama and Edwards (W)Republican PrimaryIllinois is very close between all candidates. McCain (W)Florida is very close between Romney and Guiliani (W)
30 Sources Federal Election Commission (FEC) http://www.fec.gov United States Geological Survey (USGS)Center for Responsive PoliticsMaps and cartograms of the 2004 US presidential election results (University of Michigan)Election 2004 Results
32 Calculating Likely Election Winner ClintonFor Clinton to lose, number of electoral votes is between 250 and 269.Clinton’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 250 and 466.Clinton’s chances of losing ( )/( ) ~ 0.09 (9%)Conversely, Clinton’s changes of winning = 91%GiulianiFor Giuliani to win, number of electoral votes is between 270 and 288.Giuliani’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 36 and 288.Giuliani’s chances of winning = ( )/(288-36) ~ 0.07 (7%)Chances of no electoral winner: 100 – Clinton’s chances (91) – Giuliani’s chances (7) = 2%