1. CRed Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Rotarian Keith Tovey Rotary Club of Norwich Rotary Club of Kings Lynn 31st July 2006 Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead

3. Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979 CRed

4. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 Difficult Choices Ahead CRed Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2003 2004 2005

5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

6. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

9. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

10. If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

11. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

12. Raising Awareness Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO 2 a year. A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

13. Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

14. Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro Wind Micro CHP Heat Pumps

15. Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands supplies ~ 66% of domestic needs for Norwich (or 22% of total demand) Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternative: Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

16. Hard Choices What can we as individuals do? What can you do collectively as a Club? Visit the CRed WEB Site Sign a pledge to combat global warming help secure a sustainable environment for our children help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming help secure energy supplies for the future saving energy Adopting technical solutions Promoting Awareness Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org

17. Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual ’ s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions

18. WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person ’ s room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."