1. 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal United Nations Association March 18th 2011 The twin challenges facing the world: Energy Security and Climate Change: Hard Choices Ahead Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia

2. 2 Increasing Occurrence of Drought 2

3. 3 Increasing Occurrence of Flood 3

4. 4 1979 2003 Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 4 4

5. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earth’s Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement 5

6. Global Surface Temperature In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years But why do people not account for the record breaking high temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc? 5 th Warmest - 6

7. Winter: October – March: Summer: April to September Compared to 1960 – in 2010, – 13.1% less heating needed – And 106% more cooling. Temperature variations in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal 2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December NASA says it tied as being warmest www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1 1-014_Warmest_Year.htm 7

8. 8 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? France 8

9. 9 Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 9

10. r 10 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries 10

11. Import Gap Whether we believe in Climate Change or not Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK On 13 th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports. In January 2011: Uk Production < 40% 11

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods UK becomes net importer of gas Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway Oil reaches $140 a barrel Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (currently 45- 50%) Available now (but is now running out rapidly ~2p + Potential contribution to supply in 2020 Original Projection (energy Review 2002) p / kWh Projections (Jan 2011) Electricity Market Reform/ FITs ~8.3p +/- 3p UK Gas Supply @ 11:00am on 15 th March 2011 12

13. New Coal ~ 10.5p with CCS ~ 13.5p "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration 2.5 - 3.5p nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact 13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (currently 45- 50%) Available now (but is now running out rapidly ~2p + Potential contribution to supply in 2020 Original Projection (energy Review 2002) p / kWh Projections (Jan 2011) Electricity Market Reform/ FITs ~8.3p +/- 3p nuclear fission (long term) 0 - 20% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed 2.5 - 3.5p ~ 9.7p for 1st new nuclear subsequently 7.0p Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then ? 13

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p Future prices from DECC Consultation Document on Electricity Market Reform Jan 2011.

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% Some development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p ~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 28.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p ~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for 2MW projects Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

17. On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p ~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for 2MW projects Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, research needed to bring down costs 15+ p ~27 - 41p Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies 17

18. On Shore Wind~25available now~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind25 - 50%available now~2.5 - 3p~11.5 -14p Hydro (mini - micro) 5%limited potential2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but costly 15+ p~27 - 41p Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% available, but research needed in some areas 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require area of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted to biomass 18

19. On Shore Wind~25available now~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind25 - 50%available now~2.5 - 3p~11.5 -14p Hydro (mini - micro) 5%limited potential2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but costly 15+ p~27 - 41p Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p No information but likely to be 20p+ 19

20. On Shore Wind~25available now~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind25 - 50%available now~2.5 - 3p~11.5 -14p Hydro (mini - micro) 5%limited potential2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but costly 15+ p~27 - 41p Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p No information but likely to be 20p+

21. Wave/Tidal Stream ~0.1%technology limited -4 - 8p20p+ ?? Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] On Shore Wind~25available now~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind25 - 50%available now~2.5 - 3p~11.5 -14p Hydro (mini - micro) 5%limited potential2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but costly 15+ p~27 - 41p Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Would save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 21

22. Wave/Tidal Stream ~0.1%technology limited -4 - 8p20p+ ?? Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 Original estimate of cost (p / kWh) Latest projections [Gas ~8.3 p/kWh] On Shore Wind~25available now~ 2+p~8.8p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind25 - 50%available now~2.5 - 3p~11.5 -14p Hydro (mini - micro) 5%limited potential2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but costly 15+ p~27 - 41p Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then - not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consumed electricity 22

23. 23 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

24. 24 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

25. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.! 25

26. 26 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

27. 27 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

28. 28 Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times Raising Awareness 28

29. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity kWh% costRank kWh% costRank Norwich3,53579%6Breckland5,028112%312 Cambridge4,05090%80East Cambridgeshire5,118114%326 Peterborough4,22294%116Forest Heath5,174116%336 Ipswich4,34997%159Babergh5,252117%343 Waveney4,41799%181South Norfolk5,347119%358 Broadland4,618103%231Suffolk Coastal5,371120%360 North Hertfordshire 4,645104%240 South Cambridgeshire 5,498123%374 Huntingdon4,655104%243North Norfolk5,641126%385 Great Yarmouth4,699105%252Mid Suffolk5,723128%390 St Edmundsbury4,869109%280 King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731128%393 Fenland4,899109%287Uttlesford5,884131%396 UK Average4478District 10804,942 Consumption of Local Authority Districts, % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities In Norwich average household emits 1.87 tonnes of CO 2 In Uttlesford 3.12 tonnes of CO 2 Raising Awareness - there is wide geographic variation kWh%costRank Oxford4,15393%99 Slough4,42899%184 Bracknell Forest4,594103%225 Reading4,727106%258 Runnymede4,748106%261 Cherwell4,922110%294 Wokingham4,981111%305 Wycombe5,173116%335 Windsor and Maidenhead5,291118%349 West Oxfordshire5,605125%381 West Berkshire5,695127%388 South Bucks5,721128%389 South Oxfordshire5,724128%392 kWh Norwich3,535 North East3,805 Yorkshire4,080 Wales4,132 Greater London4,220 North West4,236 East Midlands4,378 West Midlands4,427 UK Average4,478 East of England4,775 South East4,791 South West4,810 Scotland4,966 District 10804,942 29

30. 30 Involving the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 826 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

31. 31 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on orientation and type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff since April 1 st 2010 has made things more attractive. 41.3p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

32. 32 Energy SourceScaleGeneration Tariff (p/kWh) Duration < 31/03/2012> 01/04/12 (years) Anaerobic digestion≤500kW11.5 20 Anaerobic digestion>500kW9920 Hydro≤15 kW19.9 20 Hydro>15 - 100kW17.8 20 Hydro>100kW - 2MW11 20 Hydro>2kW - 5MW4.5 20 Micro-CHP*****<2 kW10 Solar PV≤4 kW new36.133.025 Solar PV≤4 kW retrofit41.337.825 Solar PV>4-10kW36.133.025 Solar PV>10 - 100kW31.428.725 Solar PV>100kW - 5MW29.326.825 Solar PVStandalone29.326.825 Wind≤1.5kW34.532.620 Wind>1.5 - 15kW26.725.520 Wind>15 - 100kW24.123.020 Wind>100 - 500kW18.8 20 Wind>500kW - 1.5MW9.4 20 Wind>1.5MW - 5MW4.5 20 Existing generators transferred from RO99 to 2027 Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1 st April 2010 ** for first 20000 installations Emergency Review for PV > 50kW announced 09/02/2011

33. Levels of support Tariff nameEligible technology Eligible sizesTariff rate (p/kWh) duration(Years) Small biomassSolid biomass; Municipal Solid Waste (incl. CHP) Less than 200 kWth Tier 1: 7.6 Tier 2: 1.9 20 Medium biomass 200 kWth and above; less than 1,000 kWth Tier 1: 4.7 Tier 2: 1.9 Large biomass 1,000 kWth and above 2.6 Small ground source Ground-source heat pumps; Water-source heat pumps; deep geothermal Less than 100 kWth 4.3 20 Large ground source 100 kWth and above 3 Solar thermal Less than 200 kWth 8.520 Renewable Heat Incentive – Announced 10 th March 2011 Note: there are significant changes to the RHI since it was first proposed in March 2010 33

34. 34 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water Ethical Issues

35. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next 10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we act now. Where would we stand if we had to make the choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room? 35

36. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links And Finally Are you up to the Challenges facing us?: Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." （直译）： “ 如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。 ” Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia k.tovey@uea.ac.uk 36