1. Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Recent developments of the RAINS model

2. Recent model development Energy & emission databases Modelling of deposition and its effects Modelling of ozone and its impacts –health –Vegetation Internet version

3. Modelling of deposition and its effects

4. Issues Source-receptor relationships for deposition Ecosystem-specific deposition Dynamic modelling

5. S-R relations for RAINS Linearity of changes in PM due to changes in emissions is crucial for the mathematical design of RAINS 87 model experiments with the new EMEP model: –Response of European S/N deposition to changes in SO 2, NO x, NH 3, [VOC, PPM2.5/10] emissions –For German, Italian, Dutch, UK and European emissions –3 emission scenarios: CLE (current legislation 2010) = CAFE baseline for 2010 MFR (maximum technically feasible reductions 2010 UFR (ultimately feasible reductions) = MFR/2

6. Response of total S deposition due to changes in UK SO 2 emissions UK emissions change from CLE to MFR UK emissions change from CLE to UFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

7. Response of total S deposition due to changes in UK NH 3 emissions UK emissions change from CLE to UFR UK emissions change from CLE to MFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

8. Response of total S deposition due to changes in all UK emissions UK emissions change from CLE to UFR UK emissions change from CLE to MFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

9. Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in UK NO x emissions UK emissions change from CLE to UFR UK emissions change from CLE to MFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

10. Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in UK NH 3 emissions UK emissions change from CLE to UFR UK emissions change from CLE to MFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

11. Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in all UK emissions UK emissions change from CLE to UFR UK emissions change from CLE to MFR Emissions change from CLE Emissions change from UFR

12. Conclusion on S-R relations Linear treatment (transfer matrices) seems sufficient Work together with MSC-W is underway to derive coefficients Time problem to calculate many different years

13. Eco-system specific deposition

14. Ecosystem-specific deposition Ecosystem-specific deposition: Estimates of unprotected ecosystems in Europe for 2010: Harmonized land-use maps: –Meeting at IIASA in March. –CDFs of CL will be delivered for forests, lakes, others. Lagrangian model 150 km grid-average deposition New Eulerian model 50km, grid-average deposition New Eulerian model 50km, ecosystem- specific deposition Acidification3%15 %25 % Eutrophication20%60 %80 %

15. Excess of forest critical loads Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology 2000 2010 2020

16. Probability of deposition exceeeding critical loads for the Gothenburg 2010 ceilings, EU-15 Estimated in 2003 with ecosystem specific deposition Estimated in 1999

17. Dynamic modelling

18. Five stages in dynamic acidification modelling Important time factors: Damage delay time Recover delay time Graph provided by Max Posch, CCE

19. Use of dynamic modelling in RAINS Target load functions have been developed for IAM, specifying the levels of S/N deposition in a given year that lead to recovery of x% of ecosystems within y years. Could be directly used in RAINS optimisation with x, y as policy choices. But: How to upscale to ecosystems without dynamic estimates? How to reach full European coverage? Historic base cation deposition?

20. Ozone modelling

21. Health impact assessment Vegetation impacts Regional ozone modelling –Linearity –Uncertainty Urban ozone modelling

22. Health impacts

23. All epidemiological studies use daily maximum 8-hour mean concentration as metric, often for the full year. Different from hourly values used for AOT calculations! –Models not yet evaluated against health metric. WHO review: Effects found below 60 ppb, no solid evidence on existence of threshold How to treat this in an integrated assessment?

24. Critical question for IAM of O 3 How certain are we about health impacts below (natural) background levels (30-40 ppb)? Especially, if ozone is reduced below background because of (too) high NO x concentrations? Do we expect health benefits from reductions in urban O 3 through increased NO x emissions - while total oxidants (NO x + O x ) increase?

25. Example implementation CAFE baseline energy & emission projection for 2000, 2010, 2010 EMEP Eulerian dispersion model, regional background concentrations Mean meteorology, 1999 & 2003 No adjustment of ozone levels for urban areas (awaiting results from City-Delta) RR from WHO meta study (1.003) Calculation for summer, no effects for winter assumed

26. Premature deaths attributable to O 3 Absolute numbers (for 6 months), with different cut-offs 30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb Provisional estimates!

27. Reduction of premature deaths attributable to O 3 compared to 2000, with different cut-offs 30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb Provisional estimates!

28. Approach recommended by TFH7 Focus on mortality – premature deaths attributable to ozone –Will create bias, because morbidity not considered Do not use potential impacts of ozone below background to drive policy Use 35 ppb as cut-off –Reflects present background concentrations –Use of linear regressed RR will underestimate the effect Consider full year Use one “characteristic” urban concentration level

29. Premature deaths attributable to O 3 Year 2000, mean meteorology, cut-off=30 ppb, percent of total deaths

30. Vegetation impacts

31. Concentration-based critical levels for ozone Source: Mapping manual ReceptorTime periodCritical level AOT30, ppm.h (only for IAM) Critical level AOT40, ppm.h Agricultural crops 3 months43 Horticultural crops 4 months-5 Forest treesGrowing season (6 months) 95 Semi-natural vegetation 3 months-3

32. Flux-based critical levels for ozone Source: Mapping manual ReceptorTime periodCritical level (AFst6) Wheat900 ˚C days starting 200 ˚C days before anthesis (flowering) 1 mmol/m 2 projected sunlit leaf area Potato1130 ˚C days starting at plant emergence 5 mmol/m 2 projected sunlit leaf area

33. Considerations for RAINS Critical levels for forests are most sensitive Use flux-based assessment for ex-post scenario analysis, concentrations-based CL for optimisation For trees, mapping manuals leaves a choice between AOT40 and AOT30 Further analysis of advantages and disadvantages necessary

34. Statistical indicators for AOT-based CL Source: Mapping manual Linear regression for birch and beech r2r2 p for the slopep for the intercept slope AOT300.61<0.010.63- 0.494 AOT400.62<0.010.31- 0.732

35. Source-receptor relations Regional scale: –Linearity? –Confidence? Urban scale

36. AOT30AOT40 Response of ozone due to ΔNOx from German emissions

37. AOT30 AOT40 Response of ozone due to ΔVOC from German emissions

38. How much can we trust results from one model? Euro-Delta intercomparison of regional scale models Coordinated by JRC, IIASA, MSC-W, TNO, CONCAWE 5 models: –CHIMERE (F) –EMEP –LOTOS (NL) –MATCH (S) –REM (D) Study model responses to emission control cases Ensemble model

39. Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC

40. Summary of model performances AOT30AOT40 r 2 of critical level estimates for birch, beech0.610.62 Correlation coefficient of ensemble dispersion models 0.650.61 Correlation coefficient of the EMEP model 0.570.48 Variability of model results for emission control scenarios ??? Linearity between CLE and MFR??? ???

41. Urban scale

42. Changes in urban ozone for further NO x reduction City-Delta results Population-weighted O 3 Urban O 3 AOT30 AOT40 Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC

43. Changes in urban ozone for further VOC reduction City-Delta results Population-weighted O 3 Urban O 3 AOT30 AOT40 Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC

44. NO x emission density in urban domain (t/km 2 ) Difference between observed urban and background O 3, annual mean O 3 Can titration be detected for long-term ozone at urban background? Preliminary results from City-Delta Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC

45. Next steps Analyze City-Delta 2 results, especially for PM Develop functional relationships between rural and urban concentrations Develop extension to other cities Implement in RAINS Final City-Delta workshop, fall 2004

46. Internet version RAINS available on the Internet Free access at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/