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Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe Model the full chain from sources to impacts Multi-effects: acidification,

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Presentation on theme: "Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe Model the full chain from sources to impacts Multi-effects: acidification,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe Model the full chain from sources to impacts Multi-effects: acidification, health (PM, O 3 ), eutrophication, vegetation (O 3 ) Grasp full picture, cover all sectors (stationary, mobile, agriculture, industry) Includes all Europe (48 countries) Multi-pollutant The RAINS model

2 A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

3 The model: RAINS developed by IIASA Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION

4 PM control options considered in RAINS Stationary Sources: Cyclones Fabric filters Electrostatic precipitators (ESP) – 1 field – 2/3 fields – 3+ fields Improved combustion techniques for small sources Mobile Sources: EURO-II EURO-III EURO-IV EURO-V

5 Scenarios for City-Delta 1999 Current legislation 2010 (CLE 2010): Energy projections supplied by countries or DG-TREN + presently decided emission control measures, taking into account age structure Maximum technically emission reductions (MFR): Full application of available emission controls, excluding non-technical measures and excluding early retirement of existing plants

6 Example implementation of loss of life expectancy calculations RAINS PM2.5 scenarios for 1990, CLE 2010, MFR RAINS SO 2, NO x, VOC and NH 3 scenarios Dispersion of primary PM: EMEP PPM model Formation of secondary PM: EMEP Lagrangian model (to be substituted by Eulerian model) Urban primary PM: assumed 25% above rural background (awaiting input from CITY-DELTA) Annual mean concentrations RR of Pope et al., 2002 RAINS population data, UN population projections

7 Illustrative results Rural background PM2.5 [ μg/m 3 ] 1990 Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010

8 Illustrative results Losses in avg. life expectancy [months] 1990 Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010

9 Illustrative results Losses in avg. life expectancy [days]

10 Assumptions Primary PM in cities 25% above rural background RR of 1.06 [ ] for 10 μg/m 3 PM2.5 (Pope et al., 2002) American RR applicable to Europe No effects below 5 μg/m 3 PM2.5 Linear extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m 3 PM2.5 No effects for people younger than 30 years For each scenario constant exposure , cohorts followed up to end of their life time Constant urban/rural population ratios in each country

11 Sensitivity analysis Preliminary analysis limited to uncertainties of RR (95% CI ) identified by Pope et al. (2002) Loss in life expectancy (days): Other uncertainties: Extrapolation beyond range of evidentiary studies, transferability, population projections, emission and dispersion calculations, etc. In principle, error propagation (Suutari et al.) is possible Mean95% CI CLE MFR

12 RAINS on the Internet Report about life expectancy calculations RAINS databases All reports produced for EU and UN-ECE Interactive on-line version of RAINS Freely available on the Internet:


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