1. Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe Model the full chain from sources to impacts Multi-effects: acidification, health (PM, O 3 ), eutrophication, vegetation (O 3 ) Grasp full picture, cover all sectors (stationary, mobile, agriculture, industry) Includes all Europe (48 countries) Multi-pollutant The RAINS model

2. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

3. The model: RAINS developed by IIASA Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION

4. PM control options considered in RAINS Stationary Sources: Cyclones Fabric filters Electrostatic precipitators (ESP) – 1 field – 2/3 fields – 3+ fields Improved combustion techniques for small sources Mobile Sources: EURO-II EURO-III EURO-IV EURO-V

5. Scenarios for City-Delta 1999 Current legislation 2010 (CLE 2010): Energy projections supplied by countries or DG-TREN + presently decided emission control measures, taking into account age structure Maximum technically emission reductions (MFR): Full application of available emission controls, excluding non-technical measures and excluding early retirement of existing plants

6. Example implementation of loss of life expectancy calculations RAINS PM2.5 scenarios for 1990, CLE 2010, MFR RAINS SO 2, NO x, VOC and NH 3 scenarios Dispersion of primary PM: EMEP PPM model Formation of secondary PM: EMEP Lagrangian model (to be substituted by Eulerian model) Urban primary PM: assumed 25% above rural background (awaiting input from CITY-DELTA) Annual mean concentrations RR of Pope et al., 2002 RAINS population data, UN population projections

7. Illustrative results Rural background PM2.5 [ μg/m 3 ] 1990 Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010

8. Illustrative results Losses in avg. life expectancy [months] 1990 Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010

9. Illustrative results Losses in avg. life expectancy [days]

10. Assumptions Primary PM in cities 25% above rural background RR of 1.06 [1.02-1.11] for 10 μg/m 3 PM2.5 (Pope et al., 2002) American RR applicable to Europe No effects below 5 μg/m 3 PM2.5 Linear extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m 3 PM2.5 No effects for people younger than 30 years For each scenario constant exposure 2010-2080, cohorts followed up to end of their life time Constant urban/rural population ratios in each country

11. Sensitivity analysis Preliminary analysis limited to uncertainties of RR (95% CI 1.02-1.11) identified by Pope et al. (2002) Loss in life expectancy (days): Other uncertainties: Extrapolation beyond range of evidentiary studies, transferability, population projections, emission and dispersion calculations, etc. In principle, error propagation (Suutari et al.) is possible Mean95% CI 1990496168-888 CLE27894-497 MFR19265-344

12. RAINS on the Internet Report about life expectancy calculations RAINS databases All reports produced for EU and UN-ECE Interactive on-line version of RAINS Freely available on the Internet: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains