1. Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh Dr. M.A. Awal Principal Investigator & Professor, Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh Workshop on Dated: July 3, 2013 (15:45) Venue: Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Ball Room, 1 Minto Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh Presented by

2. 1. Professor Dr. M.A. Awal, Principal Investigator Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 2. Professor Dr. M. Harun-Ar Rashid, Co-Investigator Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 3. Mr. A.F.M. Tariqul Islam, Co-Investigator Agricultural Statistics & ICT Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh 4. Mr. M. Farouq Imam, Research Assistant Department of Agricultural Statistics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh Team Members

3. I. Profiling the climate change shocks in Bangladesh Shocks/ Sensitivity FloodCyclone Stresses/ Exposure Water- logging Salinity Climate change GradualExtreme Drought Slow onset but longer term consequence Sudden effect with immediate disaster Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate change stimuli (IPCC, 2001) Exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to climate variations (IPCC, 2001) Life toll Destroy standing crops Disrupt infrast., institutions & basic services Reduce agricultural production Affect Livelihood

4. II. Social safety net (SSN) interventions in Bangladesh Near to a 100 SSN programs operating through various Ministries/Departments, like…. ●Old age Allowance ●Allowance for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute ●Allowance for the Financially Insolvent Disabled ●Maternity allowance Program for the Poor Lactating ●Subsidy for open market sales (OMS) ●Stipend for drop out students ●Allowance for beneficiaries in Ctg. Hill Tract area ●Housing Support ●Agriculture Rehabilitation ●Employment Generation for Hard-core Poor or 100 days ●Test Relief (TR) Food ●General Relief Activities ●Gratuitous Relief ●Vulnerable group feeding (VGF) ●Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) ●Rural Employment & Road Maintenance program (RERMP) ●Chars Livelihood Program (CLP) ●Food for Work (FFW) The study especially concerned to the effectiveness & scale-up potentialities of VGD, RERMP, CLP & FFW programmes in dealing with climate change shocks etc ●●●●●

5. ❶ To quantify the number of rural poor whose livelihoods is threatened by climate change and describe the type of climate risks facing them. ❷ To identify successful examples of coordination/integration of disaster risk management (DRM), social safety nets (SSN) and climate change adaptation (CCA)/rural development in Bangladesh and abroad. ❸ To draw implications for the design and implementation of the safety nets in Bangladesh and for the coordination among ministries such as the MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC. III. Objectives

6. ❶ Literature collection & synthesise: National, Asian & Global ❷ Collection and analysis of secondary datasets: HIES- 2005 & 2010, climate maps, climatic data, BBS, budget document of MoFin etc. ● number of rural poor affected by climate risk, ● construction of vulnerability index, ● analysis of safety net variables etc…. ❸ Collection & synthesis of primary data: FGDs, Case studies, PRA sessions etc. ❹ Stakeholder consultations: Service providers & users from GO & NGOs Official – Local & Central/Higher Level ❻ Multivariate GIS mapping with software like ArcView GIS 3.3/ArcGIS 9.2 IV. Methodology

7. Tools ● Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) ● Case Studies ● Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Collection of primary data

8. Due to recurrent flood & higher incidence of poverty (46%) Due to higher incidence of cyclone & monsoon rains Due to larger size of population (47 million) & flood incidence V. Results & Discussion 1. Number of rural poor affected by climate shocks in Bangladesh Obj # 1

9. Throughout rural Bangladesh 47% poor and 36% non-poor hholds whose livelihood were affected by climate shocks received benefit from SSNPs Among climate-shocked rural SSN user hholds, a larger portion of non-poor hholds from 40 to 75% depending on divisions (62% nationally) have also been benefitted with SSNPs If SSN benefit was distributed exclusively to poor it was possible to cover another 22% rural climate poor hholds nationally 2. Distribution of safety net users by region, hhold type, etc… (HIES, 2010)

10. SSN users with VGD, RERMP, CLP & FFW programs are very minimum (in-combined covered less than 1%) as compared to other programs The FFW, only the program where no non-poor hhold was included. So, this program can be expanded in climate-disadvantaged rural areas of Bangladesh Dhaka and Khulna divisions received the lion’s share of Agric Rehabilitation program. This program can be extended to Rangpur, Barisal and Rajshahi for strengthening the agric productivity in those regions Distribution of safety net users by region, hhold type, etc… (cont’d/2)

11. ● Barisal, Rangpur & Khulna divisions have higher climate vulnerability due to frequent experience of cyclone/flood events ● Rajshahi division has minimum climate vulnerability due to lower climate sensitivity like flood or cyclone event ● Higher climate-disadvantaged regions like households of Khulna or Rangpur divisions are more adaptive to climate change stimuli 3. Adaptive capacity & Climate change vulnerability

12. ComponentsDirection of Change Adaptive CapacityIncrease SensitivityDecrease ExposureDecrease 4. Strategy/policy to reduce climate change vulnerability

13. 5a. Asian examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA Integration among SSN, CCA and DRM is relatively new field where some nations have just completed or being passed a pilot phase…… Project or ProgrammeEnterpriseClimate shockSSN tool/services usedNation/Refs. Sustainable Livelihoods Program & Weather Index- Based Livestock Insurance Project Livestock husbandry for vulnerable herders Drought and severe winter-spring colds (dzuds) Community-based resource management, land-use & contingency planning etc. Mongolia (Belete, 2007) Disaster Risk Management Plans Losing crops or fishing equipment Extreme weather events like cyclone, flood…. Provision of loans & revolving funds to vulnerable community Vietnam (World Vision, 2009) Philippines Climate Change Adaptation Project (PhilCCAP) Philippine agriculture and natural resource management Extreme weather like cyclone, flood …. Irrigation & other agric/infrastructural inputs, extension services, weather index insurance etc. Philippines (http://www.cli mate.gov.ph/) Balochistan Rural Development and Drought Mitigation Project Community watershed & rangeland management and water conservation DroughtCreating jobs & reducing resource degradation through a participatory and pro-poor approach Pakistan (ADB, 2004) Sustainable Rural Development Programme Watershed and forestry management Climate variability and change Micro-insurance and weather derivatives climate-risk management India (Arnall et al., 2010) 5. Concrete examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions Obj # 2

14. ProgrammeEnterpriseClimate shockSSN tool/services usedNation/Refs. Joint National Action Plans (JNAPs) Socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation Cyclone, drought, flood etc. Integrate DRR & CCA into mainstream development Seven Pacific Island Countries (UNISDR, 2012) Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) Enhance adaptive capacity or resilience to climate change Drought, flood, storms, sea-level rise etc. Capacity building to integrate DRR & CCA into mainstream development 20 African countries (http://www.undp- aap.org/countries/)http://www.undp- aap.org/countries/ Enhanced Livelihoods in the Mandera Triangle (ELMT) Programme Livestock-based livelihoods DroughtProtection, improvement & marketing of livestock; natural resource management East African 20 pastoral nations (USAID, 2010) Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Livelihood for food insecured households DroughtMulti-year resource transfers Ethiopia (Tessitore, 2011) Seed Voucher and Fair Programme Crop diversityProlong droughtSeed delivery/ distribution Kenya (Davies et al., 2008) Drought mitigation through Irrigation & Conservation agric. Extn. (DICE) project Crop productionDrought and floodPromotion of small- scale, sustainable and replicable irrigation systems Malawi (CARE, 2009) Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) Extreme povertyDrought and floodAsset transfers, infrastructural development, credit & training etc. Rwanda (Siegel et al., 2011) 5b. Global examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions

15. Programme or projectProgramme scale Implementing organization Targeting/beneficiary level or area Domain SSNDRMCCA LACC (Phase-I & II)/ UNDP, UKAid, EU Pilot (2005- 2010) CDMP/DAEAgriculture; 10 upazilas in drought, cyclone and saline affected areas √√ DCRMA/UNDP, UKaid, EU, Norwegian Embassy, SIDA and AusAID National (2011- 2014) CDMP-II/DAEAgriculture; 5 drought prone, eight coastal, eight flood prone and five flash/early flood prone districts √√ Public SSN Programmes/ GoB National (1971 to date) Various Ministries/ Departments Poor households (poverty response programmes) √√ Chars Livelihood Porgramme (CLP)/DFID National (2004- 2016) Various NGOs like BRAC, RDRS…. Chronic poor char dwellers in Brahmaputra & Jamuna basins √√√ Social Investment Programme Project (SIPP) 2003 to date Local NGOs like SDF, PKSF…. Improve local infrastructure through small-scale works for the poor √√√ Cyclone resistant housing/Climate trust fund National (2009- 2012) Relief & Rehabilitation Dep., GoB Cyclone prone southern coastal regions √√ 5c. Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA interventions Obj # 2

16. Programme or projectProgramme scale Implementing organization Targeting/beneficiary level or area Domain SSNDRMCCA Stimulating Household Improvements Resulting in Economic Empowerment (SHIREE)/EEP, DFID National (2005- 2015) Funding 36 projects through 33 NGOs Extreme poverty zones in south- west (e.g. Barisal), north-west (e.g. Rangpur), the haors (north- east) and CHTs √√√ JIBON-O-JIBIKA (Life and Livelihoods) Program; Save the Children Oct 1, 2004- May 2010 Helen Keller Int’l, RCS & 14 local NGO partners Covered 2.6 million poor in Barisal, Bhola and Patuakhali; enhancing maternal and child health, and disaster preparedness √√√ Strengthening Household Ability to Respond to Development Opportunities (SHOUHARDO) National (Oct 2004- Sep 2009) CARE/USAID in partnership with GoB and a variety of local partners Covered 400,000 climate poor hholds with 2 million people in remotest and marginalised areas like north and mid chars, haor areas and coastal belt √√√ Food Security for Sustainable Household Livelihoods (FoSHoL)/ EC 2004 - April 2009 ActionAid, Practical Action, CARE & ITDG Food security and livelihood of resource-poor marginal 20,000 farm households in Khulna, Kurigram, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Satkhira and Sunamganj √√ Flood resistant housing, Floating gardens…. Flood prone areas Grameen Bank, Practical Action… Help to build flood resistant houses, floating gardens…. for poor households √√ Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA (…cont’d/2) Obj # 2

17. In all fairness we need a model/framework for Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) through better integration among the SSN/SP, DRM & CCA domains that may need multi-sectoral planning within the line ministries like MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC. DRM CCASSN What is that model? ASP/Proper integration 6. Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh Obj # 3

18. Climate sensitivity & exposure Support to targeted groups by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) People vulnerability due to shocks/disasters Disruption of infrastructure & institutions Asset formation, income generation, insurance etc. by ex ante SSN (short- & long- term) (SSN-CCA) Immediate recovery by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Landless/micro holding ultra poor: food & basic needs + employment opportunity by SSN programmes: saving life Medium households: cash + input supports+ improved agricultural extension services: returning them into production Adaptive research on climate change ISSUE Small/marginal households: food & basic needs + cash: saving life and starting their own income generation activities Proposed conceptual model/framework for integrating CCA, SSN and DRM interventions through multi-sectoral planning in rural Bangladesh Temporary structural supports e.g. cyclone or flood protection centre (DRM) Risks Cope/Adaptation/ Mitigation: Climate- resiliency/ ASP Creation of protected infrastructure, river de-siltation, rain water harvest by long-term ex ante SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) Rehabilitation of infrastructure by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Immediate relief by short-term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN)

19. SSN program Major beneficiary level Current potentiality of integration Scale-up potentiality to foster climate change Adaptation (CCA) VGDHouseholdEnhancing adaptive capacity through promotion of sustainable income generation and microfinance activities, and household saving RE-RMPHousehold+ Community /state Incorporation of embankment/polder maintenance, tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation FFWHousehold+ Community /state Elevating and widening the road or embankment against flood, tidal surge or salinity; de-siltation of dead river/canal which would reduce the risk associated with flood or water logging; excavation or re-excavation of pond for harvesting rain water which facilitates agricultural production in salinity or drought prone areas CLPHouseholdCollection of soil from dead rivers (if any) for plinth rising which would reduce the flood risk; developing marketing system of their products, extending the programme to the other flood prone areas SSNDRMSSNDRMSSNDRM SSN CCADRM Selective SSN programs: Effectiveness & scale-up potentialities to CCA Obj # 3

20. FFW Programme: Creating & maintaining rural roads or embankment or coastal polder; excavation or re-excavation of dead river/canal/pond; creating/ maintaining irrigation channels or like other infrastructures; tree plantation etc. Climate Change Adaptation/CCA: Facilitates crop production in climatically fragile areas like salinity, drought, flood, water logging areas; fish cultivation etc. Disaster Risk Management/ DRM: Reduce risks from flood, cyclone, tidal surge, salinity etc. Answer: Workfare program like Food For Work (FFW) How to integrate? Which SSN program can widely be replicated for better integration to DRM and CCA in climatically fragile rural areas of Bangladesh? Obj # 3

21. ❶ More than 2.8 million rural poor where 1.7 million live with extreme poverty were exposed to some common weather events like flood, cyclone, drought, erratic rains etc. throughout Bangladesh in 2010, a good year when no such extreme weather event struck the country. The figure would account as 3 to 5 times as many in a year if any extreme climate shock is occurred. The SSN programmes should cover these poor segments of the population. ❷ The households of Khulna region have higher degree of adaptive capacity to climate change followed by Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions whereas the adaptive capacity was found minimum for the households from Sylhet division followed by Chittagong and Dhaka divisions. The Barisal division ranked intermediate in this regard. ❸ Households of Barisal division show extreme climate change vulnerability followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division shows minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet or Dhaka division kept Chittagong division in middle. The vulnerable Barisal, Rangpur and Khulna divisions housed about 67 thousand, 943 thousand and 537 thousand rural poor of which 63, 73 and 52 percent are extreme poor, respectively who are currently affected by regular weather events like irregular rains, drought, flood, cyclone etc. VI. Key Findings

22. ❹ About 47 percent poor households whose livelihoods are affected by different type of climate change shocks received benefit from SSNPs throughout the rural Bangladesh in 2010. A maximum of about 73 percent climate-poor households received benefit from SSNPs in Khulna division followed by 44 percent from Rangpur division, 40 percent from Chittagong division, 36 percent from Dhaka division, 33 percent from Sylhet division, 25 percent from Barisal division and a minimum of 22 percent from Rajshahi division. ❺ Among the climate-shocked SSN users in rural Bangladesh, a larger proportion of non-poor households (about 40-75 percent depending on division) have also been benefitted with SSNPs. If the SSN benefits are distributed exclusively to the poor households it would be possible to cover another 22 percent rural climate-poor households. Thus the SSN coverage to climate poor would be elevated to 69 percent nationally. Similarly such figures would rose to about 40, 67, 63, 107, 31, 58 and 52 percent for Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur and Sylhet divisions, respectively. ❻ Among the benefitted households with thirty SSN programmes as mentioned in the HIES 2010 the VGD, RERMP, FFW and CLP in-combined covered less than a percent household throughout Bangladesh. Key Findings (…cont’d/2)

23. ❼ The safety net intervention in Bangladesh with the VGD, RERMP and FFW tools is SSN-DRM oriented which have minimum scope to climate change adaptation as the safety net operation in Bangladesh is mainly poverty response. However the said tools are important especially for disadvantaged women for creating employment opportunity as well as poverty reduction in rural areas of Bangladesh. ❽ Agriculture development programmes or project in integration in Bangladesh are mostly DRM-CCA orientated except a few initiatives of NGOs. ❾ Currently operating safety net tool – CLP is found as a concrete example for full integration among the SSN, DRM, CCA interventions to uplift the socio-economic status of chronic poor char dwellers to recurrent floods in Jamuna and Brahmaputra basins. ❿ Among the Asian nations Bangladesh saw the greatest momentum (followed by India), in integrating among the SSN, CCA and DRM elements into their vulnerability-reducing agricultural programmes, although the trip should go another long way as the country is the worst victim of climate change in the world. Key Findings (…cont’d/3)

24. ❶ The coverage of SSN programmes can be extended to all the divisions to support more poor in the locality. As the Khulna division is already received the largest allocation of SSN coverage, the next priority should be given to extremely climate vulnerable Barisal division and highly vulnerable Rangpur division. ❷ The VGD beneficiaries can properly be engaged to sustainable income generation and microfinance activities for future saving to promote adaptive capacity which would enhance their resiliencies to cope with climate change. ❸ The RERMP beneficiaries can also be engaged to maintain embankments/polders and tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation etc. The trees would not only be appeared as a productive asset (facilitates CCA in various ways) for future but may also play an important role for environmental protection. ❹ The CLP can be extended from 18 months to a two-year period and should have to spread-up to the chars of other vulnerable flood prone areas of Bangladesh. A good agricultural marketing system is also essential for proper and timely marketing of CLP- products in the locality. Based on the CLP-concept, some new types of safety net programme can be designed which integrate the DRM and CCA for tackling the water logging issue in Bangladesh. VII. Policy Recommendations

25. ❺ Better result can be achieved through deploying more workforces from chronically poor households to various earthen infrastructural works in rural Bangladesh with FFW as this programme exclusively reaches the poor. ❻ The dead or silted-up rivers, canals or ponds and irrigation channel can be excavated or re-excavated by operating the major workfare programme like FFW and the excavated soil can be utilized for creating, maintaining or elevating the rural roads, polder/embankment and other infrastructures which are quite crucial for mitigating the flood, storm surge, water logging, salinity or drought issues. The canals or ponds can additionally be utilised for enough harvesting of monsoon rain or flood water thus salinity and drought problems would be minimised for a better agricultural interventions in the affected areas. The venture may facilitate fish cultivation too. ❼ The Agriculture Rehabilitation Programme can be strengthened/spread-up to Rangpur, Barisal and Rajshahi divisions for promoting agricultural productivity in climate-disadvantaged areas like salinity or drought. Policy Recommendations (…cont’d/2)

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