1. Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh Dated: November 28, 2012 (15:15) Venue: Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Ball Room, 1 Minto Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh Workshop on ‘Research to Inform Food and Nutrition Security Policies’ Presented by Professor Dr. M.A. Awal Principal Investigator Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh ToR #11

2. 1. Professor Dr. M.A. Awal, Principal Investigator Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 2. Professor Dr. M. Harun-Ar Rashid, Co-Investigator Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 3. Mr. A.F.M. Tariqul Islam, Co-Investigator Remote Sensing & GIS Lab, ASICT Section, Training & Communication Wing, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh 4. Mr. M. Farouq Imam, Research Assistant Department of Agricultural Statistics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 5. Mr. M. Shameem Hossain, Research Fellow Department of Crop Botany, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh Team Members

3. Why is the climate change issue important to Bangladesh? ●Spatial geographic position, presence of Bay of Bengal; ●Monsoon climate, variability in rainfall leads to flood or drought; ●Physiographic factors, riverbed siltation, low elevation in coastal region: great risk to sea- level rising, water logging and salinity; ●Higher incidence of poverty: poor (31%, HIES 2010) are more vulnerable to climate shocks. I. Rationale Study concerned to ❶ Flood ❷Cyclone (coastal zone) ❸Water logging (S-W zone) ❹Salinity (coastal zone) ❺ Drought (N-W zone)

4. ❶ To quantify the number of rural poor whose livelihoods is threatened by climate change and describe the type of climate risks facing them; ❷ To identify successful examples of coordination/integration of disaster risk management (DRM), social safety nets (SSN) and climate change adaptation (CCA)/rural development in Bangladesh and abroad; ❸ To draw implications for the design and implementation of the safety nets in Bangladesh and for the coordination among ministries such as the MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC. II. Objectives

5. ❶Literature collection & synthesise: National & Global ❷Collection of secondary data: HIES- 2005 & 2010, climate maps, climatic data, BBS, budget document (MoFin) etc. ❸Collection of primary data: FGDs, Case studies, PRA sessions etc. ❹Stakeholder consultations: Service providers & users from GO & NGOs Official – Local & Central/Higher Level ❺Quantitative analysis of secondary data: Number of poor affected by climate risk, construction of vulnerability index, analysis of safety net variables etc. ❻GIS mapping on household vulnerability III. Methodology

6. Tools ● Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) ● Case Studies ● Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) Collection of primary data

7. IV. Results & Discussion SLContents & SequenceNo. of Slides A.People exposure to climate shocks with number affected2 B.Concrete examples in integrating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions2 C.Social safety net financing in Bangladesh1 D.Safety net distribution by HH type, Divisions, etc. (HIES 2010)1 E.Selective SSN programmes (VGD, RE-RMP, FFW & CLP): Effectiveness in dealing with climate shocks like flood, cyclone, water logging, salinity & drought, and scale-up potentialities to CCA 1 F.Climate change vulnerability and strategy to reduce5 G.Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh (multi-stakeholder approach) 2 getting started…………………….

8. Rangpur division is most exposed to flood & Khulna division for erratic rain or cyclone (Survey year 2010) %Household experienced by different type of climatic shocks in the different divisions of Bangladesh A1) Exposure of poor household to climate shocks

9. A2) Number of people affected by climate shocks in Bangladesh Due to recurrent flood & higher incidence of poverty (46%) Due to higher incidence of cyclone & monsoon rains Due to larger size of population (47 million) & flood incidence

10. B) Concrete examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions B1) Some Global/International & Asian experiences Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM interventions is relatively new field where some nations have just completed or being passed a pilot phase………………………. SL # Project nameEnterpriseClimate shock SSN tool/services usedNation/ Refs. ❶Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Livelihood for food insecure HHs DroughtMulti-year resource transfers Ethiopia (DFID, 2009) ❷Seed voucher and fair programme Crop diversityProlong drought Seed delivery/distribution Kenya (Davies et al., 2008) ❸Drought Mitigation through Irrigation and Conservation Agriculture Extension (DICE) project Crop productionDrought & flood Promotion of small- scale, sustainable and replicable irrigation systems Malawi (CARE, 2009) ❹Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) Extreme povertyDrought & flood Asset transfers, infrastructure development, credit & training etc. Rwanda (Siegel et al., 2011) ❺Sustainable Livelihoods Program (SLP) & Index- Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) Project Livestock husbandry for vulnerable herders community Drought & severe winter- spring colds Community-based resource management, land use & contingency planning etc. Mongolia (Belete, 2007).

11. B2) Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM is emerging in Bangladesh………………… CDMP is working to select and recommend the best feasible CCA options for a community through exploring, consulting, piloting and screening the locally practiced options on the different climate change issues like flood, drought, salinity, safe drinking water etc. Climate Change Cell addresses current impacts and manage future risks of climate change and variability at all levels in all stages toward a climate resilient Bangladesh. It facilitates management of long term climate risks and uncertainties as an integral part of national development planning. Some examples for integrating SSN, DRM & CCA are (Arnall et al., 2010): ❶ Char Livelihood Programme, CLP (DFID), ❷ Mainstreaming Livelihood-Centred Approaches to Disaster Management (Practical Action) ❸ Social Investment Programme (World Bank/GoB), ❹ Food Security for Sustainable Household Livelihoods (CARE/European Commission), ❺ Flood-Resistant Housing through Micro-Loans (Grameen Bank), ❻ Disaster Management Programmes (includes several initiatives) (Caritas, Bangladesh), ❼ Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change (LACC, phases 1, 2, 3) (DAE, GoB/FAO), ❽Challenge Fund for Economic Empowerment of the Poorest (DFID/GoB) etc………………

12. C) Social safety net financing in Bangladesh Although the budget for SSN is slowly increased, however, its allocation to national budget and GDP is gradually decreased 1 st Phase (2004-2010) DFID : £50 million GoB : BDT 100 million 2 nd Phase (2010-2016) DFID : £70 million AusAid : £8.235 million GoB : BDT 140 million CLP’s budget VGD = Vulnerable Group Development RE-RMP = Rural Employment- Rural Maintenance Programme FFW = Food-For-Work CLP = Char Livelihood Programme

13. D) Safety net user distribution by HH type, Division, etc. (HIES 2010) Very minimum

14. SSN program Major beneficiary level Current potentiality of integration Scale-up potentiality to foster climate change Adaptation (CCA) VGDHouseholdEnhancing adaptive capacity through promotion of sustainable income generation and microfinance activities, and household saving RE-RMPHousehold+ Community /state Incorporation of embankment/polder maintenance, tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation FFWHousehold+ Community /state Elevating and widening the road or embankment against flood, tidal surge or salinity; de-siltation of dead river/canal which would reduce the risk associated with flood or water logging; excavation or re-excavation of pond for harvesting rain water which facilitates agricultural production in salinity or drought prone areas CLPHouseholdCollection of soil from dead rivers (if any) for plinth rising which would reduce the flood risk; developing marketing system of their products, extending the programme to the other flood prone areas E) Selective SSN programmes: Effectiveness & scale-up potentialities to CCA SSNDRM SSN CCADRM SSNDRM SSNDRM

15. Barisal, Rangpur & Khulna divisions: Higher vulnerability due to frequent experience of cyclone/flood events Rajshahi division: Minimum vulnerability due to minimum climate sensitivity like flood or cyclone F1) Climate change vulnerability Vulnerability consists of adaptive capacity, sensitivity & exposure (IPCC TAR, 2001)

16. ComponentsDirection of change Adaptive capacityIncrease SensitivityDecrease ExposureDecrease F2) Strategy/policy to reduce climate vulnerability

17. ResponsibilityPromotion of HouseholdIncome, house quality, remittance, microfinance activity, school enrollment, literacy rate, alternative livelihood options (handicrafts, poultry/cattle rearing, plant nursery, aquaculture etc.), on standby during disastrous time with food, fuel and saving etc. CommunityAwareness to disaster and its preparedness training, security of livestock and food storage system, cooperative society, protection of dam/embankment, and cottage industries at local level like tailoring, bamboo and cane, jute goods, earth goods, jewelries etc. StateRoad, bridge, culvert, public transportation, educational institutes, hospital/health service, cyclone/flood protection centre or boat shelter for fisher men, poverty reduction, social safety net service etc. F2a. Improvement of Adaptive Capacity/Resiliency

18. F2b. Reduction of Sensitivity to climate change Extreme eventMeans of reduction FloodConstruction of strong embankment with adequate sluice gate and modern flood protection centre, river or canal dredging/de-siltation CycloneEstablishment of strong embankment/polder with adequate sluice gates, modern cyclone centre with coastal design, multi-layered green belt with monocotyledons tree Water loggingElevating the beels, roads, homestead, institutes etc. SalinityInhibit the intrusion of saline water from sea by strong coastal embankment, proper management of sluice gates, rain water harvest DroughtConstruction of water reservoirs, excavation or re- excavation of ponds, channels/canals, ditches, mini-pond; rain/flood water harvest

19. F2c. Reduction of Exposure to climate change Climatic eventMeans of reduction FloodIntroduction of early/short duration (e.g. BRRI-33, BINA-7 etc. for rice) and submergence tolerant (e.g. BRRI-42, 43. BINA Shail etc. for rice) or tall statured/deep water (e.g. local aman rice) crop varieties, floating agriculture (e.g. vegetable production, seedling production etc.), planting water tolerant tree species CycloneEarly harvest with early planting or with short duration varieties, plantation of water and storm resistant tree like coconut, palmyra palm, date palm etc. Water loggingAlternation in livelihood (i.e. from crop to fish or ducks), floating agriculture, encouraging existing water-logged tree species SalinityCoastal zoning e.g. rice and/or shrimp production zone, adjustment of crop rotation, cultivation of salinity tolerant crops (cowpea, mung bean, sunflower etc.) or varieties (e.g. BRRI-47 for rice) Drought Cultivation of C4 crops with high water use-efficiency (hence little water user like maize), cultivation of wheat or pulses instead of Boro rice in dry season, introduction of drought/heat resistant or drought escaping (BRRI-33; short duration 118 days, hence drought escaper ) crops

20. In all fairness we need a model/framework for Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) through better integration the SSN/SP, DRM & CCA domains. The model should coordinate multi-stakeholders from relevant ministries like MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC. DRM CCASSN What is that model? ASP/Proper integration G) Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh

21. Climate sensitivity & exposure Support to targeted groups by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) People vulnerability due to shocks/disasters Disruption of infrastructure & institutions Asset formation, income generation, insurance etc. by ex ante SSN (short- & long-term) (SSN-CCA) Immediate recovery by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Landless/micro holding ultra poor: food & basic needs + employment opportunity by SSN programmes: saving life Medium households: cash + input supports+ improved agricultural extension services: returning them into production Adaptive research on climate change agenda Small/marginal households: food & basic needs + cash: saving life and starting their own income generation activities Proposed conceptual model/ analytical framework for integrating CCA, SSN and DRM in Bangladesh Temporary structural supports e.g. cyclone or flood protection centre (DRM) Risks Cope/Adaptation/ Mitigation: Climate-resiliency/ ASP Creation of protected infrastructure, river de-siltation, rain water harvest by long-term ex ante SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) Rehabilitation of infrastructure by short- term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Immediate relief by short-term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) DRM CCASSN DRM CCASSN DRM CCASSN

22. ❶More than 2.8 million rural poor where 1.7 million live in extreme poverty were exposed to some common weather events per year throughout the country in 2010. The figure should account as 3 to 5 times as many in any extreme year of climate shocks. The SSN programmes should cover these poor segments of the population. ❷Households of Barisal division show higher climatic vulnerability followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division shows minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet division. The highly vulnerable Barisal, Khulna and Rangpur divisions housed about 67, 537 and 943 thousand poor people (of which 63, 52 and 63% are extreme poor), respectively who are currently affected by regular weather events like irregular rains, drought, flood, cyclone etc. V. Key outputs & Policy recommendations

23. Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 2) ❸The VGD, RE-RMP & FFW programmes have minimum scope in dealing with climate shocks, although the programmes are important especially for disadvantaged women in rural areas for creating employment opportunity as well as poverty reduction. ❹The CLP is found as a good example for integrating DRM and CCA which can be more effective with developing proper marketing system of their products. The programme can be extended to the chars of other flood prone areas of Bangladesh. Based on the CLP-concept, some new types of safety net programme can be designed which integrate the DRM and CCA for fostering cyclone or water logging issue in Bangladesh with the aim of achieving a better coordination of the social protection interventions. ❺The aforesaid SSNs especially workfare programmes can be extended to cover more poor in the locality as these programmes addressed remarkably less number of households than others.

24. Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 3) ❻The VGD beneficiaries can properly be engaged to sustainable income generation and microfinance activities for future saving to promote adaptive capacity which would enhance their resiliencies to cope with climate change. ❼The RE-RMP beneficiaries can also be engaged to maintain embankments/polders and tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation etc. The trees not only be appeared as a productive asset (facilitates CCA In various ways) for future but may also play an Important role for environmental protection.

25. Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 4) ❽The dead or silted-up rivers, channels, canals or ponds can be excavated or re-excavated by operating the major workfare programme like FFW and the excavated soil can be utilized for creating, maintaining or elevating the rural roads, embankment and other infrastructures which are quite crucial for mitigating the flood, storm surge, water logging or salinity issues. The canals or ponds can additionally be utilised for enough harvesting of monsoon rain or flood water thus salinity and drought problems would be minimised for a better agricultural interventions in the affected regions. ❾Dhaka and Khulna divisions have received the lion’s share of Agriculture Rehabilitation Programme (47 and 31%, respectively). The programme can be spread-up to other regions for promoting agricultural productivity in climate-disadvantaged areas like salinity, drought or water-logging.

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