1. 1 Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security The Hard Choices facing us University of Tokyo Tokyo: 16 th June 2008 CRed Carbon Reduction N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007

2. The twin critical issues facing us: Global Warming / Climate change need to reduce carbon emissions Energy Security recent high oil prices are a foretaste of what may happen demand is outstripping supply Are there conflicts between these issues? 2 Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security The Hard Choices facing us

3. 3 Evidence of Climate Change 3

4. Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 4 4

5. Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 5 5

6. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 6 6

7. Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001 7

8. 8 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

9. 9 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Increasing Occurrence of Flood

10. 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery 10 1979 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years

11. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Gas and Oil Production - ASPO projection 2004 Billion barrels of oil a year 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Oil and Gas on Earth are running out 11

12. Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 12

13. 13 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap

14. 14 UK Nuclear Capapcity

15. 15 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

16. 16 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK How do UK and Japan compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem?

17. 17 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person On average each person in UK and also Japan causes the emission of ~9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

18. 18 Carbon Emissions and GDP Japan Libya Russia USA China Turkey India Norway France UK Sweden Switzerland Denmark Germany Netherlands Greece Italy

19. 19 Carbon Emissions and Electricity

20. r 20 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

21. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity in UK Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static Business as usual Energy Efficient Future ? 21

22. 22 The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 25% renewables by 2025 Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002) Business as Usual 257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002) Electricity Options for the Future for UK – the conflicts

23. 23 Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO 2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels 25% Renewables by 2025 20000 MW Wind 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

24. What prospects are there for the future? Reduce existing fossil fuel energy use by: Awareness Raising Good Management Improvements in energy efficiency technology Renewable Energy Offsets 24 Good Management and improvements in Energy Efficiency in buildings will be covered in Lecture this evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station

25. 25 ZICER Building Good Energy Management reduced consumption in a Low Energy Building by a further 57% Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the Carbon Trust.

26. 26 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: In our homes 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Measures

27. 27 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business 4.Renewable Energy 5.Offsetting Green Tariffs 3.Technical Measures 1.Awareness 2.Management

28. 28 Comparison of Carbon Emissions from Heating & Hot Water

29. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 29

30. 30 Performance of a Solar Thermal System Data collect 9 th December 2006 – 30 th October 2007

31. 31 Solar Electricity It is still very expensive

32. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation On shore wind 1.5 MW machine will provide energy for 1000 homes in UK New machines are twice as big 66 m 32

33. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation Off shore wind By mid August, 2008 UK will have ~ 450 MW of offshore wind – the highest of any country. 33

34. 34 Scroby Sands Wind Farm has 30 turbines and can provide sufficient electricity for 35 000 houses on average. Performance of UK Wind Farms in East Anglia

35. Hydroelectricity Some countries have a high proportion of hydro electricity - Norway ~ 98.9% UK ~ 1.9% Japan ~ 7.8% 35 Possible opportunities for Micro Hydro. 5.5 kW

36. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Biomass But Land Area required is very large - 10000 sq km would be needed to generated justr 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. 36

37. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Wave 37

38. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal 38

39. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal 39

40. 40 Options for Renewable Electricity Generation Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrages

41. 41 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

42. Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed 42

43. 43 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour in Northern Japan or UK? 2.6 km At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya 43

44. 44 In the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme is aiming to push the agenda towards the 60% cut needed to combat Climate Change CRed

45. 45 CRed Birmingham Carbon Reduction CRed North Carolina Carbon Reduction CRed Japan? Carbon Reduction CRed Shanghai Carbon Reduction CRed Chester Carbon Reduction CRed Australia Carbon Reduction Elsewhere in UK Overseas In the Future CRed Fylde Carbon Reduction

46. 46 CRed already has a WEBSITE in China

47. 47 World’s First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management First cohort January 2008 A partnership between The Norwich Business School and the 5** school of Environmental Sciences Sharing the Expertise of the University

48. 48 Conclusions Climate Change and Energy Security are important issues Effective strategies are needed to explore integrated approaches involving Awareness raising Improvement s in Management Improvements in Energy Efficiency Deployment of Renewable Energy Finally, when all other things have been achieved, Offsetting Offsetting should not be used as the first choice. Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

49. 49 WEBSITE cred-uk.org/ Visit this WEB site. Follow Academic Links this presentation will appear from 19 th June Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) k.tovey@uea.ac.uk Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security The Hard Choices facing us This evening at 18:00 at British Council 1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro Station Low Carbon Strategies for Business The Experience of the University of East Anglia