1. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Detection and Monitoring of Agricultural Drought for Famine Early Warning James Verdin USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science verdin@usgs.gov

2. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Agricultural Drought Monitoring Support to USAID Food for Peace Across Multiple Time Scales: Current season…. Season ahead…. Climate change….

3. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Agricultural Drought Monitoring Livelihood systems are based on subsistence agriculture and/or pastoralism, and are highly drought- sensitive Conventional climate station networks are sparse and/or late reporting Satellite remote sensing and models fill the gap, and provide the basis for early detection of agricultural drought

4. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Agricultural Drought Monitoring

5. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Water from Snow Pack Models are needed to fill in spatially and provide homogeneous historical time-series Agricultural Drought Monitoring

6. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. 2010/11 rainfall compared to historical totals since 1950/51 in select pastoral areas of Kenya and Ethiopia Source: FEWS NET Declaration of Worst Drought in 60 Years Chris Funk, USGS

7. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. Timor Leste A B Red – Presence countries Yellow – Remote agroclimatic AND availability/access monitoring Green – Remote agroclimatic monitoring only C Current monitoring domains: A, B, C FEWS NET Monitoring

8. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. 8 Current FS status Food Security Outlooks Other info: Trade, Conflicts, Health… Climate Forecasts Livelihoods Seasonal Calendar Regional & National FSO Scenarios & Updates

9. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C. 20 th Century Global Surface Temperatures and Indian Ocean SSTs Rising in Tandem (Same hockey-stick rise since 1980) Anticipated change in rainfall (as percent) More agricultural drought lies ahead

10. February 29, 2012 – Washington, D.C.

11. Thank you