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Current Warning System of India Meteorological Department.

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Presentation on theme: "Current Warning System of India Meteorological Department."— Presentation transcript:

1 Current Warning System of India Meteorological Department

2 Most of the natural hazards are weather related WINTER (JAN-FEB) PRE-MONSOON (MAR-MAY MONSOON (JUN-SEP) POST-MONSOON (OCT-DEC) WESTERN DISTURBANCES COLD WAVE, FOG CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES HEAT WAVE THUNDER STORMS, SQUALLS HAIL STORM TORNADO SOUTHWEST MONSOON CIRCULATION MONSOON DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST MONSOON CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES

3 Nodal agencies for monitoring and assessment of natural hazards India Meteorological Department : Cyclone, Floods, Drought, earthquakes and other meteorological hazards Central Water Commission : Floods Geological Survey of India : Landslides Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) : Tsunami Defence Research and Development Organisation : Snow and Avalanches India has more than 100 sites back to the 19th century) Source: Rob Allan, UKMO

4 North Region Central Region South Region West Region East Region North East Region Regional Centres Delhi, Kolkata, Guwahati, Nagpur, Mumbai, Chennai Pune Centre for Research /Training and surface instrumentation National Weather Forecasting Centre at New Delhi

5 Meteorological Centres 1.Srinagar 2.Chandigarh 3.Shimla 4.Dehra Dun 5.Lucknow 6.Patna 7.Itanagar 8.Jaipur 9.Ranchi 10.Agartatala 11.Ahmedabad 12.Bhopal 13.Raipur 14.Bhuvaneshwar 15.Hyderabad 16.Bangalore 17.Thiruvananthapuram 18.Panjim 19.Gangtok

6 Nowcasting for next 6-12 hours (Venue/ location specific) Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division) Medium Range for next 3-7 days (District) Extended range for days (Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions) Long range for month/season (Homogeneous regions/country) Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast

7 Nowcast, short, medium and extended range Forecast Public Weather Local Forecast Long Range Forecast Tropical Cyclone Forecast & Warnings Warnings related to all other Disaster Sea State Forecast Coastal Zone Forecasts Forecasts to Aviation Forecasts for Agriculture Customized Forecasts to different Sectors- Power, Tourism, Defense, Adventure, Road/Railway transports, Public Utility, VIP functions, Strategic operations, Space, event based etc IMDs Forecast & Warning

8 General Weather Forecasting Three tier forecasting system (National, Regional and State) Issued 4 times to Media (Doordarshan /AIR), NDM General weather for 3 days with 4 days outlook Rainfall/Snowfall, Temperature (cold/Heat wave, Thunderstorms, Squall, Hailstorm, Fog/Frost, Cyclone forecasting

9 Heavy rainfall/snowfall Thunderstorm/Squall/Hailstorm Heat/Cold Wave Frost Fog Strong winds Storm surge Warning criterion defined for each parameter SOP in place Linkages with Media, Disaster authorities Scheduled time of issue Warnings Parameters

10 National Weather Forecasting Centre

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12 SHORT RANGE FORECAST & WARNINGS Day 1Day 2Day 3

13 13 Heavy Rainfall Warning (15 July 2012) Heavy rain at one or two places >6.5 cm or more Heavy to very heavy at one or two / at a few places >12.5 cm or more Heavy to very heavy at a few places or extreme heavy >12.5 cm or more No warningNil

14 14 Heat wave & Thundersquall warning (25 May, 2012) Heat wave (5.0 to C above normal) Thundersquall at one or two places >22 kts and above Severe heat wave ( C above Normal or station reported C or more) Thundersquall at a few places >22 kts and above Severe heat wave ( C above Normal or station reported C or more) at wide area Severe Thundersquall at many places >22 kts and above No warning Nil

15 15 Fog/visibility warning (17 January, 2012) Visibility at one or two places <500M Visibility at a few/many places <200 M Visibility at most places <200 M or less than <50 M No WarningNil

16 16 Heavy rain/snow & hail storm warning (16 January, 2012) Very heavy snow at one or two to many places >65 cm Ths + hail+Squall Heavy snow at a few places >35 cm Ths+ hail+ squall Heavy snow at one or two places >35 cm Ths+ squall No warningNil

17 17 Cold wave/ visibility & ground frost warning, (11 January, 2012) Cold wave (5.0 to C below normal) Ground frost at one or two places Visibility at one or two places < 500 M Severe cold wave ( 7 0 C below normal) Ground frost at a few places Visibility at a few/many places <200 M Cold day ( day temp. <15 0 C) or severe cold wave Ground frost at many places Visibility at most places <50 M No warning

18 Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications Forecast for VVIP Movement Forecast of Weather like rain, thunderstorm etc Cloudiness Max /Min Temp Humidity Disseminated through Fax and Forecast for Navy Synoptic Conditions Wind SST Sea conditions

19 Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications

20 S. No Height (AMSL) Wind Direction Wind Speed ( Km/hour) Temperature ( Deg C ) Weather 13.1 kmSOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY 24.5 km SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY 35.8 km SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY 47.6 km SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY 59.5 km WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY Forecast for Joint Indo-UK Army mountaineering expedition (MAHADEV) Lat N/ E Valid for 24 hrs commencing from 1330 hrs IST of /09/2012………….. to 1330 hrs IST of 17 /09/2012………………. WEATHER: GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-60 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY KMPH Outlook for subsequent 48 hours IST from 1330 hours IST of ………… to 1330 hours IST of ……… GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-70 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY KMPH Wind and temperature in free air Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications

21 City forecast Local forecast for 211 citiesLocal forecast for 211 cities Local forecast is issued 4 times a dayLocal forecast is issued 4 times a day Forecasts are available in IMDs web siteForecasts are available in IMDs web site Forecasts are provided to All India Radio, Door Darshan and local pressForecasts are provided to All India Radio, Door Darshan and local press Extreme weather and climatological informations for these cities are also available in IMDs websiteExtreme weather and climatological informations for these cities are also available in IMDs website Disseminated to Public, WMO through , website

22 City Climatology of extreme events

23 Nowcasting Services

24 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC)- Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan) and Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAO

25 Issue of Cyclone Bulletins Bulletin for India coastBulletin for India coast Tropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observationTropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observation Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and 1200 UTC observation during depression stageSpecial Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and 1200 UTC observation during depression stage Tropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone periodTropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone period Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO every six hourly during cyclone periodTropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO every six hourly during cyclone period Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)

26 BULLETINS AND WARNINGS 1.Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic disturbance – potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and the coastal belt likely to be affected. 2.Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs in advance indicating expected adverse weather conditions. 3.Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and actions suggested. 4.Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12 hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collectors of interior districts besides the coastal areas are also informed. 5.Finally a De-Warning message is issued when the Tropical Cyclone weakens.

27 BULLETINS AND WARNINGS Sea area bulletin Sea area bulletin Coastal weather bulletin Coastal weather bulletin Bulletins for Indian navy Bulletins for Indian navy Fisheries warnings Fisheries warnings Port warnings Port warnings Aviation warning Aviation warning Bulletins for departmental exchanges Bulletins for departmental exchanges Bulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ press Bulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ press CWDS bulletins CWDS bulletins Warnings for registered/ designated users. Warnings for registered/ designated users. Telephone, Tele-fax Telephone, Tele-fax VHF/HFRT VHF/HFRT CWDS CWDS Police Wireless, Police Wireless, AFTN AFTN Internet ( ), Internet ( ), Websites Websites Radio/TV network Radio/TV network Mobile Phones Mobile Phones SMS SMS

28 PWS-Cyclone Improvement in lead period of forecast and warning The cyclone track, landfall, intensity and wind forecasts are now issued upto 72 hrs which was earlier issued for 24 hrs only. Value added services The cone of uncertainty in cyclone track forecast Cyclone wind forecast in different quadrant, Forecast map, Multi-hazard warning map of India

29 Flood Prone areas in India~ 40 million Ha Coordination through 10 Flood Meteorological Offices of IMD 166 Flood Forecasting Centres of Central Water Commission --- { 134 level forecasting & 32 inflow forecasting } Flood Hydrometeorological services through Real time rainfall monitoring, quantitative precipitation forecast (flood forecasting) Dissemination to State Govt and CWC Mode of communication: Telefax Website

30 Monitoring Meteorological drought. Preparation of Drought Climatology Delineation and identification of Drought Prone areas Monitoring Agricultural drought conditions during SW and NE monsoon seasons by preparing aridity anomaly maps. Drought Monitoring

31 District Level Agromet Advisoy Service Milestones 1932, 1945, State Agromet Service Centre in collaboration with SDA Agro-advisory preparation - Monday & Thursday Composite Agro-advisory preparation- Tuesday & Friday Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print media, Website Farmers Weather Bulletin : Issued daily once/twice by MCs and RMCs and disseminated to public through AIR and to district collectors through fax/

32 Weather Forecasting Web Page

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35 Cyclone Web Page of IMD

36 Monsoon Web Page of IMD

37 LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES NATIONAL LEVEL : 1.CONCERNED MINISTRY 2.NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY 3.HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, TELECOM AUTHORITIES 4.NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA STATE LEVEL : 1.CHIEF SECRETARY 2.SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER 3.STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY 4.REGISTERED WARNEES 5.FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS 6.LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA

38 User Workshops Print and Electronic Media briefing Media workshop FAQ and Terminology Publication of leaflets Public Education and Reaching out

39 Thrust areas The thrust areas of IMD include : Improvement in scientific understanding, Improvement in monitoring and prediction of disastrous weather like heavy rain/snowfall over data sparse Himalayan region and adjoining plains and cyclonic disturbances over north Indian Ocean using land/Ocean and space based tools Improvement in nowcast of meso-scale disastrous events like thunderstorm, hailstorm and tornado, Improvement in space based telecommunication measures and Forecast Demonstration Projects on Cyclone Thunderdstorm Fog heavy rain during monsoon due to Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ)

40 Thank you


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