1. i M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k Preliminary report on highlights in the various TEAP and TOC Assessment 2010 Reports on behalf of TEAP co-chairs and members Lambert Kuijpers, TEAP co-chair

2. TEAP Assessment Report 2010 will be based on TOC Assessment Reports 2010, to be finalized by the end of 2010 Selection of relevant topics from TEAP Assessment Reports done in the years 2009 and 2010 It cannot be finalized before the end of 2010 This is therefore a preliminary report on highlights in the Assessment Reports M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k ii

3. 1 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok Chemicals TOC Assessment 2010

4. Process Agents In the last four years, 17 process agent uses have been added and 12 uses have been deleted from Table A Parties have so far incompletely reported to Table B Laboratory and Analytical Uses There are very few uses of ODS in laboratory and analytical procedures in non-A5 countries, but some uses continue in several A5 countries The Ozone Secretariat and experts identified by the CTOC could be directed by Parties to work with national and international standards bodies to establish new standard methods of analysis that do not use ODS Relevant Findings (1) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 2

5. Feedstocks The reported volumes of production and emissions of ODS feedstocks have been compiled from expert knowledge and cannot be verified. It will be necessary to identify more complete public data sources to estimate ODS feedstock usage Possible reporting of ODS volumes used as feedstocks by Parties through the Ozone Secretariat may enable a proper verification Solvents The major challenge is the complete phase-out of ODS solvents in Article 5 countries. Preferable alternatives have been identified and are generally available Another hurdle to overcome is the economic impact on the small and medium users who make up a major portion of the remaining ODS solvent market R elevant Findings (2) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 4

6. n-PB update n-PB is rapidly destroyed in the lower atmosphere and so has a very low ODP n-PB toxicity is an occupational health and safety concern Destruction Technologies In 2009, CTOC identified 176 destruction facilities in 27 countries including new technologies not listed in the 2002 Task Force Report Recently several companies have requested evaluation of new technologies, which will be reviewed when technical details are made available A review of available destruction technologies will be necessary to provide updated technical guidelines for CFCs, HCFCs, halons, methyl bromide and other ODSs No relevant findings on CTC emissions Relevant Findings (3) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 5

7. 7 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k Foams TOC Assessment 2010

8. Hydrocarbons are currently the dominant blowing agent in domestic appliances Energy standards are driving the use of cyclopentane in blends with HFCs and also the evaluation of HFOs (unsaturated HFCs) both on their own and in blends with hydrocarbons On-going tests with HFO-blown foams are showing better thermal performance than liquid HFCs Some HFOs will not be available for the first phase of developing country HCFC phase-out projects. Some appliance manufacturers might therefore consider a two-step transition to take advantage of the HFOs, when available Relevant Findings on Appliances M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 7

9. The last decade has seen unprecedented growth for insulation foams in the construction sector. Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate as blowing agents in regions where economies of scale support the capital investment for plant safety. In developing countries, where the average plant size is much smaller, the successors to HCFCs are much less obvious. The range of potential alternatives includes pre-blended hydrocarbons, methylal, methyl formate and, in the short- term, liquid saturated HFCs. Relevant Findings in Construction (1) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 8

10. The spray foam sector is growing rapidly as refurbishment programmes are used to boost the energy efficiency of existing buildings. Replacements for HCFCs are still to be proven; there is growing interest in three-stream processes using super-critical CO 2 or gaseous HFOs. In XPS, a wide range of technologies are in current use; the long-term choice of blowing agents is still unclear. HFOs are a potential replacement for saturated gaseous HFCs, particularly in blends. In Europe, where market and regulatory pressures are significant, early transition from saturated HFCs is likely. In North America transition to saturated HFCs have only just occurred. Relevant Findings in Construction (2) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 9

11. Future bank estimates have been updated up to 2020 to take into account the latest assessment of blowing agent consumption The climate benefit arising from ODS recovery in appliance waste streams will change over time as the proportion of CFCs declines The climate value of CFC recovery from appliances in developing countries can justify new investment in recovery, particularly where population density is high. There are additional benefits from improved energy efficiency of replacement appliances The economics of recovering ODS from foams in buildings is considerably less attractive with costs in the range of US$100- 300 per tonne of CO 2 -eq. where segregation of demolition waste is not practiced routinely Relevant Findings on ODS Banks M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 10

12. 12 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok Halons TOC Assessment 2010

13. The HTOC maintains its opinion that adequate global stocks of halon 1211 & 1301 currently exist to meet the future needs of all existing halon fire equipment until the end of their useful life The HTOC is concerned that if the bank of halon 2402 continues to get depleted through use in non-fire protection applications and/or in new products, then supplies for existing, important fire protection will be compromised There has been an unanticipated lag in the establishment of halon banking and management programmes in Article 5 Parties. Relevant Findings M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok

14. HFCs continue to dominate the in-kind gaseous fire protection alternatives. A few important fire protection applications continue to rely on recycled halons or very high-GWP HFCs as the only option. Parties may wish to consider the total environmental impact of using an already produced recycled halons verses producing a very high-GWP HFC The demand for recycled halons remains high. To date, no Party has reported that it is unable to satisfy its needs, although some Parties users have expressed cost concerns Relevant Findings (2) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok

15. The recent introduction of Carbon Credits (CC) for ODS destruction makes halons attractive for CC, as they are readily accessible for collection, storage, and disposal Owing to the demand for halons in applications such as aviation, oil & gas production, and military uses, HTOC recommends that all halons be banked for potential future use. Destruction should only be considered if the halons are too contaminated for reclamation HTOC continued its cooperation with ICAO in the development of a revised resolution containing mandated, amended halon replacement dates. The dates were agreed by industry and adopted at the ICAO 37 th Assembly in September 2010 as Resolution A37/9 Relevant Findings (3) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok

16. 16 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k Methyl Bromide TOC Assessment Report 2010

17. Global production of MB is now about 13% of the baseline and global consumption about 11% of the baseline Consumption in A5 Parties was higher than that in non-A5 Parties for the first time in 2007 and the trend continues; Latin America has made the smallest reduction (24%) in this period The EU completely phased-out all uses of MB in 2010, including QPS Many A5 Parties have phased-out well before the 2015 deadline SAP reports a 20% decline in atmospheric concentrations of chlorine equivalent MB emissions, which is the result of Montreal Protocol controls Relevant Findings - Controlled uses M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 16

18. Key chemical alternatives include MI, 1,3-D/Pic, Pic, metham sodium and metham potassium There is significant uptake of non-chemical alternatives including grafting, biofumigation, solarization, soil-less production and steam The main remaining challenges in non-A5 Parties are finding alternatives for the treatment strawberry fruit in California and certified nursery plant materials in Australia, Canada and USA. The remaining crops where MB is still used in A5 Parties include tomatoes, melons, strawberries and some flowers, but the majority is being phased-out through MLF projects Relevant Findings - Soils uses M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 17

19. Slow registration of key alternatives is delaying phase out in key sectors e.g. IPM tools and techniques including sulfuryl fluoride and heat treatments and controlled atmosphere have improved pest control in milling and food processing. A remaining challenge is finding suitable alternatives for high moisture dates. Relevant Findings - Structures and Commodities M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k ok

20. QPS consumption in 2009 exceeded non-QPS consumption. QPS consumption trend is downward in non-A5, upward in A5. The largest increase in QPS consumption is in Asia (mainly due to increased consumption reported by Israel), while other regions have reported decreased or stable consumption. More than 70% of reported total QPS use is for logs, sawn timber and wood packaging material, grains and similar foodstuffs, and pre-plant soil fumigation. MBTOC reports that 30% to 50% of QPS consumption for these uses can be replaced immediately. The EU phased out MB for all QPS uses in 2010. Brazil reported that by 2015 all QPS uses will be phased out. Relevant Findings - QPS M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 18

21. 21 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k Medicals TOC Assessment 2010

22. CFC MDI phase-out is progressing well in most countries Remaining transition of CFC MDIs to alternatives is just a matter of time For other pharmaceutical aerosol products, some small consumption of CFCs remains in developing countries, presumably from stockpiles Summary findings MDIs & other pharmaceutical aerosols M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 21

23. Global CFC consumption for sterilisation uses is minimal HCFC consumption in sterilisation is declining with restrictions in HCFC use being introduced Alternatives are available to replace ODS consumption in this sector Summary Findings - Sterilisation M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 22

24. 24 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k Refrigeration, AC and Heat Pumps TOC Assessment 2010

25. Conversion to HCs in domestic refrigeration continues. RTOC estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, 75% of appliances globally will use hydrocarbons in 2020 Commercial refrigeration replacement options depend on the subsector: Stand alone equipment mainly using HFC-134a will increasingly use HCs Condensing units (used in bakeries, butchers, convenience stores, etc.) currently only use HFCs; HCs and carbon dioxide are being tested but are not yet commercialized Main Findings Domestic - Commercial Refrigeration M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 24

26. There are a range of options for commercial refrigeration (current systems mostly use HFCs): Indirect systems using HFCs (-134a, -32), ammonia, HCs, CO 2 (R-744) in first loop (carbon dioxide in secondary loop as heat exchange fluid) Cascading systems with a CO 2 system in the low temperature loop Pure CO 2 subcritical system (low ambient temperatures) Two stage systems, including those that use only CO 2 Main Findings Commercial Refrigeration (2) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 25

27. In AC, hydrocarbons and CO 2 are increasingly used HFC-32 is expected to take some market share from R-410A; lower GWP blends containing HFC-32 are being developed Equipment to replace HCFC-22 systems can be designed to operate in locations with high ambient temperature Centrifugal chillers continue to use HFC-134a and HCFC-123 The proportion of ammonia chillers is increasing Hydrocarbons are used in a limited number of chillers. In regions where companies/governments are supportive, safety concerns have been largely resolved Main Findings Air Conditioning and Chillers M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 26

28. HCFCs (-22) are mainly used in buses and trains; the alternatives are HFC-134a and carbon dioxide All AC units in new cars operate with HFC-134a The original replacement options for HFC-134a (below the EU GWP threshold of 150) were carbon dioxide and HFC-152a The emerging global car manufacturers apparent choice is HFO-1234yf HFC-134a will be phased out in this subsector over the next decade, starting in 2011 Main Findings Vehicle Air Conditioning M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 27

29. 29 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 2 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k TEAP Assessment 2010

30. TEAP proposes a classification of GWPs as HIGH >1000, MODERATE 300 – 1000 and LOW < 300 Each Sector / Subsector has a variety of low or moderate GWP alternatives available or under development Some Sectors / Subsectors have not-in-kind alternatives that are not Global Warming Substances Parties may wish to select alternatives with the lowest Climate Impact based upon life cycle analyses, such as LCCP and not based solely on GWP, as energy use or other life cycle emissions may contribute significantly to the total carbon equivalent emissions TEAP Proposed GWP Scale M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 27

31. Thank you ! M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 22 m e e t i n g, 8 - 12 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 0, B a n g k o k 27