1. MITRE 1 Fast Modeling Techniques for C4ISR Problems John Furman The MITRE Corporation McLean, Virginia, USA 3 September 2004

2. MITRE 2 The Challenge IO N System Technical Performance System Technical Performance Cognition and Human Factors Cognition and Human Factors High Dimensionality (Options & Factors) High Dimensionality (Options & Factors) How do you calculate the impact of C4ISR* systems on Force Effectiveness? *C4ISR: An older acronym for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Relationship to Operational Effectiveness Relationship to Operational Effectiveness Distributed Functional Processes & IM Performance Distributed Functional Processes & IM Performance

3. MITRE 3 The Taxonomy of C4ISR Analysis Tactical or Operational Task Performance Based on Info Delivery Force Operational Outcome Mission Branch (Impact of Info Delivery) Decision Branch (Choice & Outcome) MoP MoCE MoFE Comparison of Avail Information & Decisions Taken MoCE MoP TimelinessQuality Persistence QuantityAccess Synthesis, Fusion, Human Cognition System Performance Communications Perception MoFE

4. MITRE 4 Basic Principles Identify Fundamental Operational Issues “Drivers” --- most challenging aspects (hard problem) Critical Factors for operational execution What must I do to succeed? What is a “successful” outcome? Model to Support Analysis Based on comprehensive understanding of problem domain Rapid-response: idea to execution in days or weeks Focus on critical variables and processes (can’t do everything) Analyze to Examine the KEY Issues Task analysis Linkages among tasks Time dependencies Parametric representations of performance Quantitative measures for outcomes Influence diagrams as the primary technique Simple, understandable, parametric

5. MITRE 5 Linking C4ISR Capability Mission analysis based on functional decomposition of scenario (Strategy-to-Task) establishes success criteria Parametric analysis of capability yields the required Quantitative Threshold Assessment (QTA) Approach: Strategy-to-Tasks Define OPSITs for each conflict condition: Baseline + Excursions Establish overall operational goals and effectiveness thresholds Use / identify functional breakdown of operations process (single Joint source or hybridize from multiple sources as appropriate) Establish functional performance thresholds Establish (& quantify where possible) relationship between info and functional performance Assess IS support to functions and tasks Directly / inferred from established sources … or By analysis and best professional judgment, validated by gov’t and military authorities Identify gaps, opportunities and potential solution concepts Approach: Strategy-to-Tasks Define OPSITs for each conflict condition: Baseline + Excursions Establish overall operational goals and effectiveness thresholds Use / identify functional breakdown of operations process (single Joint source or hybridize from multiple sources as appropriate) Establish functional performance thresholds Establish (& quantify where possible) relationship between info and functional performance Assess IS support to functions and tasks Directly / inferred from established sources … or By analysis and best professional judgment, validated by gov’t and military authorities Identify gaps, opportunities and potential solution concepts

6. MITRE 6 Quantitative Threshold Analysis Mission area analysis based on functional decomposition and Quantitative Threshold Assessment Operations Combat/War Arms Control Combatting Terrorism Counterdrug Operations Nation Assistance Noncombatant Evacuation Operations ….. Mission Areas Air and Missile Defense Interdiction Kill 1st Echelon Targets SEAD Maritime/Air/Land Superiority ….. Targets Moving Armor Weapons Production National C2I Communications Ports ….. C4ISR Functions Information Acquisition / Situation Monitoring Information Assessment Decision Making Planning Execution Management (Force & Unit) Objective Deploy Forces Halt Invasion Defeat Enemy Redeployment ….. C4ISR Tasks - Detect - ID - TLE/AOI - Report CONOPs Rollback In-depth ….. Domain Assessment Communications Command & Control ISR Info Technology Info Operations Info Assurance Assessment Levels Exceeds Meets Does Not Meet (But Useful) Compromises Performance Thresholds High Medium Low None

7. MITRE 7 Common Modeling Approach Parametric system dynamics modeling Implemented in easily available tools Analytica™, MatLab, Mathematica, Python, Smalltalk, SimPy Open-source when appropriate (cost, risk, or response time) Mission analysis based on functional decomposition and quantitative threshold assessment

8. MITRE 8 Example Model Concept Approach Posit evolution of adversaries, forces and capabilities Lay down adversary forces into defense zones Time dynamic, 2-sided, parametric calculation of expected damage If E(damage) < tolerance threshold, then access to zone is obtained on day N Forecast force lethality vs. ground mobile targets relative to “complete access” Simple --- Aggregate --- Rapid Maritime Engagement Model - MEM

9. MITRE 9 MEM Top-level Structure Defense Zones Analysis Case Combat Power Threat Forces, Capabilities, Disposition & CONOPs US Maritime Forces, Disposition, Capabilities & CONOPs Attrition of Threat Forces Attrition of US Forces Access Achieved by US Forces E( KPD) / Max( KPD) Decision nodes Chance nodes Result nodes Data Modules contain a process (collection of nodes)

10. MITRE 10 ISR Modeling in MEM The probability that each ISR system independently detects the target is calculated ISR performance can be degraded by a variety of factors including physical attack or use of countermeasures Allows individual sensor capabilities to detect/identify/track to be accounted for and influence the output Probability of detection, classification (ID), and track used as appropriate in expected damage calculations throughout MEM Decision nodes: controlled set of decisions (tables) Chance nodes: events not controlled by the decision maker

11. MITRE 11 ISR Systems Modeled Space Air Ground Sea EO / IRRadarSIGINTAcoustic Commercial Adversary Ally Missile LaunchDet. TACAIRRecce MPA UAV Monitor shore / straits FPB D-E sub Scientific Adversary Ally Gov’tOwned TACAIR Recce MPA UAV Monitor shore / straits Counter-battery Radar IADS / ATC Merchantman Patrol Adversary Ally Gov’tOwned TACAIR ESM MPA UAV Monitoring networks Patrol D-E sub Acoustic D-E sub Other / Cyber Space - Commercial EO/IR Space - Adversary Ally EO/IR Space – EO/IR Space - Missile Launch Detect EO/IR Space - Scientific Radar Space - Adversary Ally Radar Space – Radar Space - Adversary Ally SIGINT Space – SIGINT Air - TACAIR RECCE EO/IR Air - MPA EO/IR Air - UAV EO/IR Air - TACAIR RECCE Radar Air - MPA Radar Air - UAV Radar Air - TACAIR ESM SIGINT Air - MPA SIGINT Air - UAV SIGINT Ground - Monitor Shore/Straits EO/IR Ground - Monitor Shore/Straits Radar Ground - OTH Radar Ground - Counter-Battery Radar Ground - IADS/ATC Radar Ground - SIGINT Ground - Offensive EW Sea - Fast Patrol Boat EO/IR Sea - Diesel Electric Sub EO/IR Sea - Modern Diesel Electric Sub EO/IR Sea - Merchantman Radar Sea - Patrol Craft Radar Sea - Patrol SIGINT Sea - Diesel Electric Sub SIGINT Sea - Modern Diesel Electric Sub SIGINT Sea - Sea Bed Acoustic Sea - Diesel Electric Sub Acoustic Systems can be categorized by time to expedite portfolio analysis Categorization ensures proper consideration of all systems

12. MITRE 12 Assessing Operational Effectiveness Maritime Mission Weighted Sum Minimum Maximum If( (A & B) > GRN ) then Min (C, D) else Min (A, B) x... Average A B C D A1A2A3B1B2B3C1C2C3D1D2D3 Base case Option 1 Option 2 Quantitative Threshold Methodology (QTA) Decompose Operational Mission into its basic functions Develop rules for aggregating children into their parents Assess capability at lowest level functions based on defined quantitative capability thresholds Lowest level assessments and therefore the overall assessment may change for each option considered

13. MITRE 13 Automating the Assessment Automated using Portfolio Analysis Machine (PALM) Changes in “leaf” nodes are automatically reflected all the way to the top. PALM identifies the critical failure path = functions for improvement Calculates and displays the rate of increase of the overall mission value for each unit of increase in node Calculates cost and improvement in operational effectiveness for all combinations of possible improvements Explores Solution Space Automatically

14. MITRE 14 Investment Analysis PALM - Exhaustive Automated Analysis of Alternatives - PALM: Portfolio AnaLysis Machine

15. MITRE 15 Extensible Modeling Approaches Mission analysis based on functional decomposition and quantitative threshold assessment – multiple missions Linked parametric system dynamics modeling Model Development Rationalize and extend previously developed C4ISR models for conventional combat Calculate bounds on MOPs --> conflict MOFEs in minutes Evaluate military worth of … Doctrine and CONOPs changes C4ISR systems improvements Changes to force structure and weapon systems

16. MITRE 16 Analytic Rigor Measure C4ISR effectiveness Quantify performance: Comparative performance  “System A performs 3 times as well as system B.” Absolute performance  “System A is likely to meet 65 of 85 percent of capability needs.” Assess capability needs Evaluates options at the mission or operation level Recommends solutions that address  Future risk tradeoffs,  Force management,  Warfighting capabilities, and  Economic limitations