1. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS1 SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC) Two year project (April 1999 – June 2001) Peter Wintoft, Lars Eliasson, and Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics

2. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS2 SDA Objectives Create database with relevant data: –Geomagnetic indices (Dst, Kp), –Energetic particles (GOES MeV electron flux), –Solar wind plasma and magnetic field, –Spacecraft anomalies. Real-time update of database. Tools for post-analysis: –Plotting, –Statistics (Superposed Epoch Analysis, Correlation,…), –User tailored prediction model. Tools for forecasting: –Internal charging events at geostationary orbit, –Surface charging events at geostationary orbit.

3. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS3 User needs Spacecraft engineers –Access to as many as possible geomagnetic and space particle data for mainly post-event analysis. Spacecraft operators –Access to key and easy to check relevant geomagnetic and particle data mainly for forecast but also post- analysis. Web based access. Real-time operation.

4. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS4 User satisfaction SAAPS has been tested by users at ESRANGE and at ESA. The service was considered as overall good in meeting user requirements. The database and post-event analysis facilities were considered as very appropriate tools for checking rapidly the possible environmental cause of effects. The service was found without any other equivalent elsewhere. Some users complained on problems encountered with firewall blocking some functionalities using the Java Remote Invocation Methods. Current database is not easily maintained. One user estimated that using SAAPS for post-event analysis can save a couple of man days of work per analysis compared to existing services (e.g., NOAA-SEC).

5. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS5 Sustainability of the service Software is implemented on a server that –downloads real-time data and store in database, –operates a dynamic web service (using Java and RMI). Depends on –reliable internet connection, –real-time ACE and GOES data. Requires approx. 200 man hours per year (~20 k€/y) to ensure continuous operation of server. An upgrade of the software <1 man month.

6. 14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS6 Improvement of service At the time of development (1999-2001) an in- house database was developed. Should be updated using a professional database server. Service developed for GEO s/c. LEO s/c should also be included. The forecast models operate on daily average data. Could be refined using higher temporal resolution and including local time effects. Work in close collaboration with one (or a few) specific s/c operators. Possibly best achieved in private enterprise.