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2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: BGS Index Nowcasts and Forecasts Alan Thomson and Ellen Clarke, BGS, Edinburgh SDA Objectives There appears to be a consistent (even increasing?) demand for near real time proxies and forecasts of common geomagnetic indices, for space weather applications, and for other studies. This SDA is therefore designed to make available BGS forecasts and near real time estimates of common geomagnetic and solar indices, for academic and other communities, and to make use of BGS real time data capabilities to provide the highest accuracy in index estimates. BINCASTS is not a package as such, but a collection of data and plots found at www.geomag.bgs.ac.ukwww.geomag.bgs.ac.uk Need to integrate these index data with
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: User Survey and Needs No survey of the user community was done: data were solicited by ESA for SWENET. Some History: In the 1990s ESOC commissioned 1-27 day forecasts of Ap, F10.7 & solar cycle predictions of smoothed monthly Sunspot number, F10.7, Ap, Aa. Forecast software was written >10 years ago and only recently updated (on request from ESOC) to include a 1-3 day neural network forecasts of Ap. Nowcasts : Daily Aa est, 3-hourly aa est, daily Ap est, 3-hourly ap est, Forecasts : Daily solar radio flux F 10.7, geomagnetic Ap est index and DRX index (the daily average of hourly range in the north component of the field in the UK) all for 1-27 days ahead. Solar cycle forecasts of monthly F 10.7, Ap est, Aa and Sunspot number.
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: User Satisfaction Survey For the community to decide! Do you need more, or different indices and forecasts? Are you happy with the near-real time aspects and the quality? NB: we do not keep a detailed list of user types or names, but no commercial access is allowed. BGS indices and forecasts access 1988-2005
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: Business Plan BGS is committed long term to near real time operations, e.g. > We are a World Data Centre for geomagnetism > We have good working relationships and data access to observatories that contribute to IAGA indices and to INTERMAGNET > These data products are free to non-commercial users (since a UK public service commitment), at annual staff cost ~5keuro Forecast and nowcast data will be maintained for the foreseeable future > can integrate with other data providers if asked > can develop new proxy indices if there is a need. We encourage the advertising of these data and feedback: firstname.lastname@example.org Real time estimated Ap/ap
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: Prospects for Improvements Daily 1-27 day Ap and DRX forecasts The community is encouraged to suggest developments that would keep system attractive to users: - Range indices, dB/dt, … for GIC applications – commercial? We will continue to make our proxy indices as close as possible to official IAGA endorsed versions. We will work with other index institutes for the benefit of the space weather community. -INTERMAGNET has begun developments towards real-time operations
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: Solar Wind Monitoring and Induction Modelling for Induced Currents SDA.
The SWENET Online Archive: 10 years of a European Space Weather Community Resource H. Laurens¹, A. Glover¹², JP. Luntama¹, E.Amata³, E.Clarke ⁴, P. Beltrami.
SWWT Space Situational Awareness Briefing for SWWT topic groups Mike Hapgood Chair, ESA Space Weather Working Team.
Eta_max space Richard-Wagner-Str. 1, Braunschweig Updates and Developments of the SWENET Software Infrastructure 3 rd European Space Weather Week.
MMMM T S R S Summary of TSRS Objectives The Trieste Solar Radio System (TSRS; INAF-Trieste Astron. Obs.), is a set of two multichannel solar radio polarimeters.
Monday 13 th November GSY/050388/ © BAE SYSTEMS All Rights Reserved ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project Service Development.
Incorporation of geomagnetic data and services into EPOS infrastructure Pavel Hejda 1, Aude Chambodut 2, Juan-Jose Curto 3, Simon Flower 4, Elena Kozlovskaya.
6th November 2007SWENET Developer Forum1 SWENET Developers Forum Review and discussion on the status of the Space Weather European Network (SWENET) –Recent.
Splinter: SSA Space Weather Service Network Splinter: SSA Space Weather Service Network Tuesday 18th, 15: :00 1.Overview of the P2-SSA activities.
P.Beltrami 4 th June 2008 ESTEC SWENET Infrastructure Status Report 23rd SWWT Meeting.
DIAS home page Second European Space Weather Week, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, November 2005 European Digital.
IONOSFERA SKW-0040 “Second European Space Weather Week” ESA/ESTEC : 14-18/11/2005 Gaston Bertels, on4wf.
Ground Effects Topical Group ESWW4 Brussels 2007 Spokespersons Risto Pirjola (FMI, Finland), Alan Thomson (BGS, UK), What are we interested.
Ionospheric Services The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Space Weather Services setion (formerly the Ionospheric Prediction Service, IPS) provides a.
B. Zolesi *, Lj.R. Cander **, A. Belehaki ***, I.Tsagouri ***, M.Pezzopane * and S.Pau * Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy; ** Rutherford.
14-18 Nov 2005ESWW – SAAPS1 SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC) Two year project (April 1999 – June.
Forecasting GPS Scintillations For Low Latitude Stations, in Brazil, using Real-Time Space Weather Data. Enivaldo Bonelli Federal.
© NERC All rights reserved Chris Turbitt Observatories Manager Geomagnetism Team British Geological Survey BGS Observatory Network.
Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna M. Yamauchi 1 Different Sun-Earth energy coupling between different solar cycles Acknowledgement:
ISGI objectives The International Service of Geomagnetic Indices is an academic research body. It is the federation of the academic research institutes.
March 2006TAAPT conference Long Term Analysis of 20 MHz Solar Radio Events P. Mason, M. Villarreal, Dr. C. Higgins MTSU Department of Physics and Astronomy.
“Quickmaps and history of the effects of ionospheric scintillations on GPS/GLONASS signals” SDA for ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project J.J. Valette,
ESA Pilot Project: Real-time forecast service for geomagnetically induced current H. Lundstedt 1, P. Wintoft 1, M. Wik 1, L. Eliasson 1, Risto Pirjola.
ATMOP Partners Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France 7 th framework project selected.
SWENET Developers Forum 5th European Space Weather Week – Splinter Session 1.
5 th European Space Weather Week, November 2008, Brussels Operational implementation of the SWIF model in DIAS system Tsagouri Ioanna Koutroumbas.
SWS for PIPELINES L. Trichtchenko Geomagnetic Laboratory Natural Resources Canada SPACE WEATHER SERVICE FOR PIPELINE OPERATIONS.
2nd European Space Weather Week Nov 2005, ESTEC1/5 SEIS: The INTEGRAL Experience F. Di Marco – INTEGRAL FCT- VEGA IT GmbH, Germany A. Baumgartner – SOLENIX.
Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna Variable Sun-Earth energy coupling: dependence on solar cycle strength M. Yamauchi
IPv4 Depletion IPv6 Adoption 3 February /8s Remaining.
29 April 2011Viereck: Space Weather Workshop 2011 The Recent Solar Minimum: How Low Was It? What Were The Consequences? Rodney Viereck NOAA Space Weather.
CLRN Evaluation Update Educational Support Systems May 28, 2009
IAGA Symposium A12.2 Geomagnetic networks, computation and definition of products for space weather and space climate Melbourne, Australia, 2011 GLOBAL,
ESA SSA SWE element status and near future plans 7th European Space Weather Week November, Brugge, Belgium Juha-Pekka Luntama Space Weather.
Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction n Ken Schatten n colleagues - Scherrer, Svalgaard, Wilcox, Sofia, Hoyt, Pesnell, + others.
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey USGS contributions to unified space weather.
Space Weather Service in Indonesia Clara Y. Yatini National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN)
Japanese Activities for eGY * T. Iyemori and Japanese eGY committee * Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University CODATA-20, Beijing Contents:
Institutional Framework - Improving Customer Service in Registers of Scotland Marcus Mackenzie Customer Service Centre Manager
Establishing the Economic Impacts of Kevin F. Forbes Research Supported by the United States National Science Foundation Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge.
Space Environment Center Service Start to Finish Joe Hirman SEC Lab Review July 2000.
CHAPTER 3 FORECASTING.
The day after solar cycle 23 IHY 2009 September 23, 2009 Yu Yi 1 and Su Yeon Oh 2 1 Dept. of Astronomy & Space Science, Chungnam National University, Korea.
VTEC prediction using a recursive artificial neural networks approach in Brazil: initial results Engineer School - University of São Paulo Wagner Carrupt.
Vr: A New Index to Represent the Regional Geomagnetic Activity Dongmei Yang, Yufei He, Chuanhua Chen, Yahong Yuan Changchun.
Slide 1 Second European Space Weather Week, ESA - ESTEC, 14 –18 November, 2005 The GPS Validation Project Identify and describe Space Weather conditions.
BDO Monthly Business Trends Indices July 2010 Page 1 Current Confidence Index BDO Output Index BDO Optimism Index Movement in Month BDO Inflation Index.
Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Space Weather Workshop.
North American Experience with GIC David Boteler Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa Workshop on Geomagnetically Induced.
Splinter Session – ‘Space Weather Metrics, Verification & Validation.’ Thursday 20 th Nov., 16: :00 Splinter session - Space weather metrics, verification.
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