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2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: Solar Wind Monitoring and Induction Modelling for Induced Currents SDA Objectives To build on service developed for Scottish Power plc in 1999: GIC monitoring data Magnetic Activity Forecasts To add new relevant functions for grid management Solar Wind shock monitor (as geomagnetic storm precursor) Model GIC flow everywhere in the Scottish power grid (in addition to measurements made at 4 sites) Alan Thomson, Allan McKay, Ellen Clarke, Sarah Reay, Orsi Baillie
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: User Needs Questionnaire sent to Scottish Power - to add to knowledge built up from existing contract - engineers backed planned development Main Needs: Big Picture Real-time geomagnetic monitoring data for GIC confirmation. At 15 minute update. Daily magnetic activity forecast to 3 days ahead. Existing service basically OK. Solar wind shock monitor for warning of magnetic storm onset. Since any accurate and advance warning is ideal. Would prefer to know hours ahead of storms. Scottish Power grid network model and estimated GIC in the grid. Keen to know whats happening anywhere in the grid at any time. Whats the long term risk? Measured and Grid Modelled GIC
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: User Satisfaction 1. Based on discussions and a questionnaire completed by Scottish Power and National Grid engineers: SWIMIC is easy to use, intuitive. Would like more science background Would like a complete UK grid Would like forensic analysis rapidly on-line for major storms in progress 2. Science Benefit: BGS View Allowed construction of a state of the art system, complete with model accuracies and with identification of limitations or potential for users. Papers, presentations, public profile. Real Time Geomagnetic Monitoring Data
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: Service Sustainability and Business Plan 1 st Year Adapt to recent UK power market changes. Make minor adjustments in service (NB: SWIMIC benefits from existing real time processing set up for observatories, development work ~100keuro). Interface with Subsequent Years Use SWIMIC as an industry state of art demonstrator of capability? Would like an industry champion to promote within power industry. Possibly need European consortium of users to share costs of service. Since … Single user for current system ~20-30keuro (because need quality, real time, observatory data). NB: UK government supports UK magnetic observatory operations ~150keuro, and BGS is not- for-profit government institute. Real Time Shock Detector
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved SWIMIC: Prospects for Improvements Midterm Review In ~18 months Update models: e.g. new grid layout Check model accuracy statistics Sustainability in Longer Term Any developments will depend on other studies/contract work. Add a predictive element to service, giving more advance warning of GIC. Difficult! Extend grid across UK for new grid operator. Or, integrate with European wide grid model? Add rapid forensic analysis of storms/GIC Build an online historical database. Higher level of quality controlled solar wind data for shock monitor would increase reliability. Real Time GIC Estimates
2 nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005 © NERC All rights reserved BINCASTS: BGS Index Nowcasts and Forecasts Alan Thomson and Ellen Clarke, BGS,
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