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Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish.

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Presentation on theme: "Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish."— Presentation transcript:

1 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics

2 IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Why forecast indices? Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for –Analysis –Model evaluation –Model development

3 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Outline Some applications using geomagnetic indices Real-time forecasts The Lund Dst model –Model evaluation –Short term dynamics –Long term dynamics –Real-time operation

4 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Magnetospheric Specification Model http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html - Kp Input: 50 keV el.

5 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment - Solar wind - Dst Inputs: http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons 10 keV to 1 MeV protons

6 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 SWRI http://climatology.space.swri.edu/ Input: - Dst Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV

7 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ KpScale 5G1 6G2 7G3 8 – 9 - G4 9G5

8 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Input: - Kp

9 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.

10 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real-time forecasts IndexURL AE http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/ae.html http://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/vassi/rt/main.html Dst http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/ http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/dst.html http://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/klimas/htmls/dst.html http://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/ http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/ http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index/ http://www.iki.rssi.ru/apetruko/forecast/forecast.html Kp http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/ http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.html http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html Ap http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html http://www.sepc.ac.cn/english/

11 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Models Indices http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/

12 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind Solar Wind Monitor

13 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

14 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Kp at RWC-Sweden

15 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Dst at RWC-Sweden

16 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Matlab Java

17 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Overall performance of different Dst models

18 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

19 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

20 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst tt

21 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Power spectrum

22 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Wavelet of Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 y

23 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Wavelet of predicted Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 y

24 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

25 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Effect of data gaps

26 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Future List of updated forecast models –ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) –Plots, Data, Models –Evaluation Evaluation –RMS error and correlation (overall performance) –Skill scores (comparative overall performance) –Onset times –Long term dynamics –Real time performance

27 Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Indices Power grid Spacecraft

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