1. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Superconductivity and Electric Power: Several Future Scenarios Paul M. Grant EPRI DOE Peer Review Workshop 23 July 1997

2. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 What is Electricity? Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….

3. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity and the Quality of Life Emerging Developing Developed FSUs log [ per capita GDP ] log [ per capita Electricity Generation ] Persian Gulf b Electricity directly related to standard of living in most of the world b Enormous increase in electricity usage seen for the 21st century

4. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity & QoL: Asian Scene China Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Laos

5. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity & Energy Conservation E/GNP (index: 1900=100)Electricity (%) E/GNP ratio Electricity fraction Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al., 1990 1880190019201940196019802000 50 40 30 20 10 150 130 110 90 70 50 Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….

6. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity - The Bottom Line

7. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 US Energy Flow - 1995

8. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 US Electricity Flow - 1994 1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh 0.28 TkWh 0.15 TkWh 3.24 TkWh

9. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity Prices: 1995 US & Asia (¢US/kWh) 5.7 6.4 7.4 4.7 1.9 19 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand India China Japan US US: $324 B World:$1.3 T

10. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 U.S. Electricity Production/Loss Summary

11. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 The Electricity Paradigm b Generation/Storage b Transmission/Distribution b Delivery/End Use

12. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 The Electricity Paradigm and Superconductivity b Generation/Storage Generators, SMES, FlywheelsGenerators, SMES, Flywheels b Transmission/Distribution Cables, Transformers, FCLsCables, Transformers, FCLs b Delivery/End Use Motors, ElectromagnetsMotors, Electromagnets

13. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Superconductivity and Efficiency

14. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 The Electricity Paradigm and Deregulation b Generation/Storage GenCoGenCo –Deregulated, Open Market, Commodity Bidding b Transmission/Distribution TranCoTranCo –Regulated, ISOs, Stewardship? b Delivery/End Use ServCoServCo –Deregulated, MultiUtility (Elec, Gas, Telecom,…)

15. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity- Transportation Analogy

16. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity Transmission and Deregulation b Public Stake in Viable Grid b Freeway System Analogy b Who’s in Charge?

17. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 California AB 1890 Summary b Implements electricity deregulation and mandates CEC to set up RD&D program b CEC RD&D Program Mission “Public interest RD&D activities to advance energy science or technology not adequately provided by competitive and regulated markets”“Public interest RD&D activities to advance energy science or technology not adequately provided by competitive and regulated markets” b Funded by utilities and access rate levy $62 M/yr$62 M/yr

18. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 California AB 1890 RD&D Focus Areas b Renewable Energy b Energy Efficiency Superconductivity?Superconductivity? b Environmental Protection b Strategic Energy Research Superconductivity?Superconductivity?

19. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Gas or Electricity? Pipes or Wires?

20. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 North American CH 4 There’s Lots of It EPRI Natural Gas Industry Estimates of Remaining Reserves 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 0 3D Seismic Imaging EPRI Tcf Trendline GRI PGC 3D Seismic Imaging Plus Directional Drilling 50 Years at ‘97 Prices!

21. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Natural Gas: Monthly Price Fluctuations

22. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Electricity from Gas Gas Turbine Steam Turbine Generator Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (Aeroderived) >60% TE, $500/kW GE, ABB, Hitachi

23. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Distributed Generation: US &Europe b Use widespread NG pipeline network b Generation plants sited locally Community of 60,000:50-100 MWCommunity of 60,000:50-100 MW Subdivision of 1-2000: 3-5 MWSubdivision of 1-2000: 3-5 MW Single Family Dwelling: 20-30 kWSingle Family Dwelling: 20-30 kW (100,000 btu/hr) (100,000 btu/hr) b Some level of storage required b “Loosely” connected to grid

24. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Distributed Generation: Approaches b Internal Combustion (GRI) b “Micro-turbines” (EPRI) b Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

25. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Power by HTSC: Middle East

26. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Power by HTSC: North America b Two Wheeling Scenarios: Hudson Bay Hydo Power into New England/New York Vera Cruz Gas Fields to Texas

27. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Power by HTSC: Asia Location of Asian Gas Fields and Major Energy Use Centers

28. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Power by HTSC: Southeast Asia

29. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 The Superconducting Electricity Pipe! b Total Cryo System b Power: 5 GW dc b Cost: 500 Miles

30. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Operating Parameters Capacity50 kA, ±50 kV; %GMW Length1610 km Temperature Rise, 1 K every 10 km, 65 K, 1 W/m heat input 21,600 liters LN 2 /hr, 100 kW coolers, 120 gal/min Vacuum 10 -5 -10 -4 torr10 stations/10 km need 200 kW

31. Powering Progress EPRI P.M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Gas/HVDC Comparison