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Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model.

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Presentation on theme: "Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model."— Presentation transcript:

1 Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model

2 World Trend of Natural Gas Supply  Natural gas supply has steadily increased. Source: OECD/IEA, Energy Balances of OECD/Non-OECD Countries

3 EMF23: World Natural Gas Markets and Trade  Will the world gas market become more fully integrated or will markets remain essentially balkanized?  What institutions, policies and conditions are needed to alleviate concerns about safety and other delays and allow globalization to occur?  How competitive will the US be relative to Europe and Asia? Will gas flow between north and south or between east and west?  Is it cheaper to pipe or ship natural gas? Focus:

4 EMF23 Current Status and This Study  EMF23 decided simulation cases to study last month.  Our model analyses cannot provide the answers to all the questions, but can provide useful answers to many of the questions.  This presentation is not necessarily consistent with the EMF23 case studies.  The analyses of the simulation cases for the EMF23 are the future work.

5 Contents  Outline of the world energy model, DNE21+  Model assumptions and simulation cases  Preliminary analysis results  Final remarks Technological options for CO 2 emission reduction World primary energy production Natural gas production by region Primary energy consumption by region Gas balance in US, EU and China Gas exports from Russia to Europe and China

6 Outline of DNE21+ Model  Linear Programming Model (minimizing world energy system cost)  Evaluation time period: (up to 2100)  World divided into 77 regions  Energy supply side: bottom-up, demand side: top-down  Primary energy: coal, oil, natural gas, hydro&geoth., wind, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear power  Final energy demand: solid, liquid, gaseous fuels, and electricity  Electricity demand and supply are formulated for 4 time periods: instantaneous peak, peak, intermediate and off-peak periods  Interregional trade: coal, crude oil, natural gas, methanol, hydrogen, electricity and CO 2  Existing facility vintages of energy conversion and transportation are explicitly modeled.

7 Notes for the DNE21+ Results  The DNE21+ model enables to treat and analyze complicated systems consistently and quantitatively on certain assumed conditions.  DNE21+, which is utilized to analyze and evaluate global warming mitigation options, explores the least-cost global energy system (energy flow, energy facility capacities, etc.) under given assumptions on the final energy demands, the costs of various technologies, etc. for the case of no-CO 2 - constraint (Reference case) and  also for the case of CO 2 constraint. For the case of CO 2 constraint, the reduction in the final energy demands that is caused by the rise of energy costs is calculated inside the model and the least-cost energy system that meets the reduced final energy demands is obtained for this case.  DNE21+ does NOT consider the energy security.

8 Model Regions in DNE21+ Model The world is divided into 77 regions.

9 Model Assumptions

10  Fossil fuel resource  Renewable energy resource Coal : 885 Gtoe Oil : 241 Gtoe (conventional), 2,340 Gtoe (unconventional) N.Gas: 243 Gtoe (conventional), 19,600 Gtoe (unconventional) Source: WEC, USGS, Rogner  Electricity generation efficiency (LHV base %) Cost reduction assumption: Wind power %/yr Photovoltaics %/yr Source: based on EPRI Coal : 22 ~ 52 % Oil : 20 ~ 60 % N.gas : 24 ~ 62 % Hydrogen : 52 ~ 65 % etc.

11 Assumed Distribution of Conventional Oil Resources Source: USGS

12 Assumed Distribution of Conventional Natural Gas Resources Source: USGS

13 Assumed Cost and Potential of CO 2 Storage

14 CO 2 Sequestration Potential into Aquifer Note: The potential was estimated by RITE based on a sedimentary basin map of USGS. The “ideal” potential of aquifer sequestration is shown.

15 Assumed Transportation Costs Note: The facility costs are assumed in the model, and the costs per energy or CO 2 transportation are decided within the model. The costs of gas, hydrogen and CO 2 by tanker includes these liquefaction costs.

16 Assumption of Final Energy Demand  Population: IPCC SRES B2 (Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment (TGCIA))  Growth rate of GDP per cap: IPCC SRES B2  Growth rate of final energy per GDP for reference case: IPCC SRES B2 Only selected regions

17 Model Analysis Results  Reference Case (No-CO 2 -Constraint)  550 ppmv Stb. Case (IPCC WGI S550) (Full emission trade is assumed.)

18 Technological Options CO 2 Emission Reduction Technological Options for CO 2 Emission Reduction ppmv Stb. Case -

19 World Primary Energy Production Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case Note: 1TWh=0.086/0.33Mtoe is used for primary energy conversion of nuclear, hydro, wind powers and photovoltaics.

20 Conventional N.Gas Production by Region Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case Note: The divided regions in the figure are aggregated from the 77 model regions.  The production shares of Middle East and Russia increase in both cases.  The production in US decreases.

21 Primary Energy Consumption Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case Reference Case US UK 550 ppmv Stb. Case

22 Primary Energy Consumption (Contd.) Reference Case Japan China 550 ppmv Stb. Case

23 Gas Balance in US Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case  The production of conventional gas decreases.  The production of unconventional gas increases from the year  The import share increases until the year 2030 and thereafter decreases.

24 Gas Balance in EU Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case  The total consumption of natural gas in the 550 ppmv stabilization Case is larger than in Reference Case.  The share of import in the total supply increases from the year 2010.

25 Gas Balance in China Reference Case 550 ppmv Stb. Case  Natural gas consumptions in China drastically increase in both Reference and the 550 ppmv stabilization cases, but a large reduction of gas consumptions is observed in the the 550 ppmv Case relative to Reference Case after  Almost all the consumptions depend on the import.

26 Natural Gas Exports in Russia - Reference Case - Russia - China 10 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 710 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Russia - Belarus, Ukraine 60 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 340 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Belarus, Ukraine - Poland, Czech, Hungary, Romania, etc. 40 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 220 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Poland, Czech, Hungary, Romania, etc. - Germany, Austria, etc. 40 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 170 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Note: Only the lines from Russia to Europe and China are shown. The values are the capacity of natural gas pipeline.

27 Natural Gas Exports in Russia Russia - China 100 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 410 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Russia - Belarus, Ukraine 120 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 410 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Belarus, Ukraine - Poland, Czech, Hungary, Romania, etc. 80 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 280 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Poland, Czech, Hungary, Romania, etc. - Germany, Austria, etc. 40 Mtoe/yr (Y2020) 220 Mtoe/yr (Y2050) Note: Only the lines from Russia to Europe and China are shown. The values are the capacity of natural gas pipeline ppmv Stb. Case -

28 Final Remarks  The importance of natural gas is almost unchanged between no-CO 2 -constraint and 550 ppmv stabilization until the middle of the 21st century.  Conventional natural gas production decreases and unconventional gas production increases in US till  Import share of natural gas significantly increases in EU.  The gas production shares of Middle East and Russia in the world increase till  Natural gas flow from Russia to China is larger than that to Europe in 2050 in Reference Case, and almost same in the 550 ppmv stabilization Case.  The analyses will be conducted under the harmonized simulation cases for the EMF23 study.

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30 Assumed Conversion Processes of DNE21+

31 Assumed CO 2 Capture Cost

32 Assumption on Fuel-cell Vehicle (FCV)  FCV Average life: same as gasoline vehicles (150,000 km)  Wheel efficiency of FCV: 3.1 times of gasoline vehicles (8km/L)  Cumulative installation of FCV: 0.05 and 5.00 million vehicles in 2010 and 2020, respectively  Cumulative installation of gasoline vehicles of hybrid type: 5.0 and 20.0 million vehicles in 2010 and 2020, respectively Source: WE-NET Task 1 (2003) 1US$=120Yen - Supply costs of hydrogen are endogenously determined in the model. - The above differences in efficiency and vehicle price are converted to the cost penalty on the supply costs of hydrogen.


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