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THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007

2 9.6 9.0 TOTAL OTHER LOWER 48 CRUDE OIL FIGURE 1 UNITED STATES PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day ALASKA CONDENSATE GULF OF MEXICO SLOPE AREAS NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS Actual Forecast

3 WORLD OIL PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day FIGURE 2 Texas Saudi Arabia 3.5 9.8 Other OPEC 16.0 Other Non-OPEC Eastern Europe Total OPEC 31.2 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 100% Allowables In Texas Natural Gas Liquids Condensate Crude Oil Iraq – Iran WarEmbargo of Iraq Occupation Of Iraq Middle East War U.S. Import Program Middle East War Middle East War Suez Crisis OPEC Formed Viet Nam War Actual Forecast

4 NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day Forecast Actual Middle East Asia Mexico China Latin America Canada U.S. Lower 48 Africa FIGURE 3 Western Europe U.S. Lower 48 Eastern Europe

5 FIGURE 4 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN MEXICO Million Barrels Per Day Total Crude 2.75 3.21 Total Offshore Cantarell Reforma Area 2.10 Chicontepec Actual Forecast 2.50 0.89 0.50

6 Million Barrels Per Day WORLD OIL PRODUCTION 30.8 10.4 Other Non-OPEC Crude Oil Eastern Europe Crude Oil OPEC Crude Oil NGL ** Other * * alcohols, coal liquefaction, and gas to liquids ** condensate, natural gasoline, butanes, propane, and ethane 22.2 12.6 2.4 0.9 28.7 11.4 28.9 10.8 Angola joined OPEC FIGURE 5 Actual Forecast

7 FIGURE 6 WORLD PETROLEUM DELIVERIES Million Barrels Per Day Rest of World United States Japan, Canada, Australia & New Zealand Western Europe 65.9 57.5 China 18.9 15.2 8.9 Includes crude oil, other liquids and processing gain 81.9 84.1 33.2 8.5 20.5 15.1 6.8

8 UNITED STATES GASOLINE MARKET Per Gallon $3.06 Retail $2.31 Cost + 51¢ per gallon subsidy $1.80 Total Cost $1.60 Feedstock (2.5 gallons per bushel) $3.06 Retail $2.30 retail (from crude) $1.55 Domestic refinery or imports B A Case ACase B DEMAND Crude Oil: $60 per barrel Corn: $4 per bushel SUPPLY Mandated Ethanol Volume Gallons FIGURE 7

9 Actual Forecast OIL DELIVERIES IN CHINA Thousand Barrels Per Day Gasoline Residual Fuels Distillate Direct Crude FIGURE 8

10 FIGURE 9 INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY GDP Trillion 2005$ Population Millions Actual Forecast (Normal Weather) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Population 5.31 - 200 - 300 6.70 0.84 7.20 281.4 1.06 237.9 296 310 $5.68 $12.49 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Electricity Gas Trillion kwh Trillion Tcf

11 Tcf Per Year Tight Coalbed Associated Offshore Gas Bubble Onshore Lower 48 Conventional (Non-Associated) Price Controls Section 29 Tax Credits Alaska Actual Forecast Prorationing In Texas FERC Order 436 22.9 Deliverability FIGURE 10 UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

12 FIGURE 11 WORLD LNG Billion Cubic Feet Per Day ProductionConsumption ProductionConsumption 20052015 Indonesia16% Algeria13% Malaysia15% Qatar15% Australia8% Nigeria6% Brunei5% U.A.E. 4% Oman5% Trinidad7% Egypt4% Western Europe 25% South Korea15% Taiwan5% U.S. 9% Japan42% India 3% U.S. Western Europe 20% South Korea12% Taiwan5% U.S.16% Japan21% India 6% Mexico6% China7% Indonesia 8% Algeria 8% Malaysia 6% Qatar19% Australia13% Nigeria14% Brunei2% U.A.E.2% Oman3% Trinidad4% Egypt5% Russia2% Iran8% Yemen2% Peru1% E. Guinea2% 19. 34 18. 63 46.12 44.41

13 Bcf/d Residential & Commercial Boiler Fuel & Other 46.9 60.8 24.0 Fuel Use Act UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION Billion Cubic Feet Per Day 20.0 59.0 47.5 FIGURE 12 Actual Forecast

14 THE OUTLOOK FOR OIL AND GAS Presentation To OKLAHOMA INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION June 11, 2007


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