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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early Release Rollout Presentation Paul J. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University December 16, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

2 Key results from the AEO2014 Reference case 2 Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, with crude oil approaching the 1970 all-time high of 9.6 million barrels per day Light-duty vehicle energy use declines sharply reflecting slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled and accelerated improvement in vehicle efficiency With continued growth in shale gas production, natural gas becomes the largest source of U.S. electric power generation, surpassing coal by 2035, and boosting production and natural gas consumption in manufacturing Strong growth in domestic natural gas production supports increased exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas With strong growth in domestic oil and gas production, U.S. dependence on imported fuels falls sharply Improved efficiency of energy use and a shift away from carbon-intensive fuels keep U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions below their 2005 level through 2040 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

3 Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to a reduction in net imports 3 U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 2012 4% Consumption Production Net imports 16% Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 3% 2034 2040

4 Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high 4 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Tight oil Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Lower 48 offshore ProjectionsHistory 2012 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970

5 Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market 5 transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 ProjectionsHistory 2012 59% Motor gasoline Jet fuel CNG/LNG 12% 13% 3% 44% 31% 3% 4% Other Diesel 22% 2030 47% 13% 3% 30% 1% 2040 Ethanol 4% 5%

6 Shale gas leads U.S. production growth 6 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated offshore Non-associated onshore ProjectionsHistory 2012 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 billion cubic feet per day

7 Electricity generation from natural gas surpasses coal electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours 7 History Projections Coal Natural gas Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 2012 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

8 Manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term 8 manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 Aluminum Glass Iron and steel Paper Food Refining and related Bulk chemicals Other Metal based billion cubic feet per day durables manufacturing

9 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year Alaska LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline imports from Canada LNG imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 9 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 billion cubic feet per day 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day) U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 ProjectionsHistory 2012 2025

10 U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day Other petroleum product imports Distillate exports Motor gasoline exports Other petroleum product exports Distillate imports Motor gasoline imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 10 U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products ProjectionsHistory 2012 Total petroleum product net exports

11 Energy-related CO 2 emissions remain below the 2005 level over the projection period 11 carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Projections History 2012 2005 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the 2005 level in 2040.

12 Petroleum and other liquid supply 12 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

13 U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term 13 U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Consumption Domestic supply Net imports 40% 32% ProjectionsHistory 2012 2005 60% Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 25% 2016 2040

14 Increased production of tight oil and greater fuel efficiency drive decline in petroleum and other liquids imports 14 Note: “Other” includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Natural gas plant liquids Crude oil production (excluding tight) Net petroleum and biofuel imports 32% 17% 12% 23% 12% 13% 40% 2012 Other 23% Tight oil production 16% 12% U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 14% 25% 2016 25% 12% 24% 2040

15 Natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks 15 natural gas use by mode trillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 Freight trucks Buses Freight rail and marine Light-duty vehicles 22% billion cubic feet per day Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040 Freight trucks Freight rail and marine Buses Light-duty vehicles 290 71 38 9

16 Natural gas 16 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

17 U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices 17 energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 2012 Henry Hub spot price Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 Brent crude oil spot price 20182040 Ratio: 7.1 Oil to gas price ratio: 3.4 Ratio: 3.2

18 U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future 18 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 ProjectionsHistory 2012 Consumption Domestic supply Net exports 100 75 50 25 0 -25 billion cubic feet per day

19 19 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation ** 11.2 4.1 1.7 11.0 3.6 9.1 4.2 0.7 8.5 2.9 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

20 Electricity 20 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

21 Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040 21 U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Projections History 2012 Period Annual Growth__ Electricity use GDP 1950s 9.8 4.1 1960s 7.3 4.4 1970s 4.7 3.2 1980s 2.9 3.0 1990s 2.4 3.2 2000-2012 0.7 1.8 2013-2040 0.9 2.4 Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 Gross domestic product Electricity use

22 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation 22 electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release 30% 19% 37% 12% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables 2012 ProjectionsHistory 16% 32% 35% <1% Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 1993 11% 13% 19% 53% 4% 30% 17% 37% 15% 1% 2025 2040

23 Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2012 and 2040 23 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Wind Solar Geothermal Municipal waste Biomass Industrial CHP Power sector 2012 ProjectionsHistory Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

24 For more information 24 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.govwww.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeowww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steowww.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieowww.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergywww.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthlywww.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/statewww.eia.gov/state Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013

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