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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Muhammad Nurdin Vice President - Planning and Commercial ExxonMobil Indonesia UGM, December 20, 2014 This presentation.

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Presentation on theme: "The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Muhammad Nurdin Vice President - Planning and Commercial ExxonMobil Indonesia UGM, December 20, 2014 This presentation."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Muhammad Nurdin Vice President - Planning and Commercial ExxonMobil Indonesia UGM, December 20, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors Residential Commercial Lt. Transportation Hvy. Transportation Aviation Marine Rail Chemicals Asphalt Lubricants Flaring Energy Industry Agriculture Heavy Industry Power Generation Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass/Other Coal Hydro Geothermal 20 fuel types Solar Wind Bio-mogas Bio-distillate Electricity Market Heat Technology & Policy Trade Flows

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4 Energy Saved ~500 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 1.0% Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.8% OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

5 Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040 China ~40% India ~15% Key Growth 20% Other 25% Percent Share 60+ Countries 10 Countries Key Growth Countries (2040) 2040 Energy Demand QUADS Brazil Saudi Arabia Iran Mexico Nigeria South Africa Thailand Egypt Turkey Indonesia ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

6 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.2% Southeast Asia Energy Trends Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 4.2% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

7 Southeast Asia Energy Demand by Country By Country Quadrillion BTUs Indonesia Thailand Malaysia By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Vietnam Singapore Rest of Southeast Asia Philippines Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Other Renewables

8 Residential/Commercial Semanggi - Jakarta

9 Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Commercial Residential By Region Quadrillion BTUs Rest of World OECD By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs India Africa China Oil Gas Coal Biomass Electricity Other ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

10 S.E. Asia Residential/Commercial Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Residential Commercial ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Biomass Other Renewables Electricity Coal

11 Industrial

12 Southeast Asia Industrial Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Heavy Industry Chemicals Energy Industry ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Biomass Coal Electricity

13 Transportation Alun-alun Selatan

14 Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand MBDOE 2010 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

15 S.E. Asia Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift Transportation MBDOE Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars Light Duty Aviation Heavy Duty Marine Rail ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

16 Electricity Generation

17 Southeast Asia Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour Wind & Solar Other Renewables ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

18 Emissions Semanggi - Jakarta

19 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes Latin America Middle East Africa Asia Pacific North America Russia/Caspian Europe 2010 2040 Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person CO 2 Emissions Plateau ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

20 Supply

21 Liquids Supply Liquid Supply by Type MBDOE Other Biofuels Conventional Crude & Condensate Tight Oil Oil Sands NGLs Deepwater Crude and Condensate Resource* Cumulative Production through 2040 Remaining Resource Trillion barrels of oil ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA

22 Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies Thousand TCF Gas Production by RegionRemaining Recoverable Resource* BCFD Conventional Unconventional BCFD Unconventional Conventional ROW Gas Production by Type 2012 AP NA Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Russia/ Caspian Europe North America Latin America ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Russia/ Caspian Europe North America Latin America

23 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Quadrillion BTUs Global Mix of Fuels 18001900200018501950 Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables 2040 Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960) ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

24 Positioned to Take on the Challenges History Technology Workforce Business Strength Corporate Citizenship

25 LNG tanker Advanced Drilling — Surpassing 7 Miles Horizontally Technology and Innovations Oil Sands Arctic Unconventional Gas

26 Global Organization

27 115 Years of Presence in Indonesia

28 Aceh Production Operations Cepu Block Three onshore gas fields. Divided in two Arun PSCs, South Lhoksukon (SLS) A and D, as well as one offshore gas field, the North Sumatra Offshore (NSO) A. Gas produced from fields is sent to a facility owned by PT Arun NGL then managed to become LNG. Until now, PT Arun has supplied more than 4000 cargoes of LNG to Pertamina for sale to consumers in Korea and Japan. Banyu Urip Project Status Banyu Urip is being built by 10,000 Indonesian workers, who make up 95 percent of the overall workforce Initial production of oil with a capacity of up to 40,000 barrels per day The project is expected to reach daily production capacity of 165,000 barrels in 2015. Banyu Urip will continue to ramp up production until it reaches full-field capacity in 2015.

29 Conclusions ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

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