Presentation on theme: "The Outlook for Energy:"— Presentation transcript:
1The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040Slide Overview: Introduction (image of world at night)[Personalized intro]I am pleased to be here today to share ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy: A View to Energy is critical to virtually every aspect of modern life.Energy can be taken for granted given its convenience and reliability, and the fact that much of the world's energy is used "behind the scenes" -- for businesses, manufacturing, agriculture, the Internet and public services, just to name a few.ExxonMobil's task is to help ensure that people continue to have reliable and affordable energy. That’s why we have developed an outlook for more than 50 years – it helps us make wise investment decisions based on long-term fundamentals affecting energy.Looking ahead, we see population and prosperity continuing to expand around the world – most notably in non-OECD countries.As a result, we see the world’s energy needs increasing by 35% from 2010 to 2040, even with significant gains in efficiency.Practical options to meet people’s energy needs continue to expand.Advances in technology will continue to play a critical role – by enhancing energy efficiency as well as unlocking vast new energy resources , e.g. tight oil, shale gas.It should be noted, however, that overall global energy demand growth is slowing, and energy-related emissions are declining in some countries.I’m looking forward to sharing the results of our Outlook with you. In our view, since everyone needs energy, it’s important that everyone understand our energy future -- including the challenges and opportunities in the years ahead.I’ll be happy to take your questions at the end. Let’s continue….[Click]Muhammad NurdinVice President - Planning and CommercialExxonMobil IndonesiaUGM, December 20, 2014This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
2Energy Outlook Development Motor GasolineDistillateNaphthaJet FuelFuel OilLPGLubesAsphaltNatural GasNuclearBiomass/OtherCoalHydroGeothermal20 fuel typesSolarWindBio-mogasBio-distillateElectricityMarket Heat15 demandsectorsResidentialCommercialLt. TransportationHvy. TransportationAviationMarineRailChemicalsAsphaltLubricantsFlaringEnergy IndustryAgricultureHeavy IndustryPower GenerationTrade FlowsTechnology & Policy100 countriesExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
3Slide Overview: How we build the Energy Outlook Let me begin by noting a few points about how we develop our Outlook.The Energy Outlook is a bottom-up, data-driven process focused on the future of energy worldwide.The EO is updated each year, using a mix of public and proprietary data.This year's edition covers the period to 2040.The Outlook seeks to answer several fundamental questions:How much energy will the world need?Where will that energy be needed?What types of energy will most likely be used to meet demand?To arrive at answers to these questions, we rely on a detailed build up of energy demand and supply – looking at:100 different countries, [Click]15 different demand sectors [Click]and 20 different fuel types [Click]We also factor in assumptions related to technology advances – those that will affect demand as well as those that will extend/diversify suppliesWe also consider assumptions related to public policies like those targeting vehicle fuel economy, nuclear power or GHG emissions [Click]Assumptions related to trade are incorporated because trade has always been an important aspect of world energy markets and will be even more important in the future. [Click]In the end, our Outlook represents our view of how we expect the energy future will unfold – reflecting the path forward to address challenges related to economic growth, industrial competitiveness, energy security and the environment.We share key results to help people better understand energy and related issues.The Outlook is unique to ExxonMobil, but many of our conclusions are in line with those from other major forecasters, including the IEA and EIA.Lastly, we use the results as a foundation for our own strategies and investments (~$40 billion in 2012).[Click]
4Global Progress Drives Demand PopulationGDPEnergy DemandEnergy DemandBillionTrillion 2005$Quadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsAverage Growth / Yr.2010 – 20400.8%Average Growth / Yr.2010 – 20402.8%Average Growth / Yr.2010 – 20401.0%Energy Saved ~500Slide Overview: Relationship between population, GDP and energy demandLet’s look at a couple key elements that underpin our demand Outlook – namely the number of people in the world and the ongoing quest we all have to improve our standard of living.The last two centuries have seen remarkable changes in global population as well as a remarkable transition to today’s modern economy and lifestyle for much of the world.Looking ahead, the fundamental drivers of energy demand remain population and economic activity. Global population is likely to grow by more than 25%, to nearly 9B people.World GDP is expected to increase by ~130%. This means greatly improved standards of living for billions of people.Economic growth will be led by Non OECD countries. In developing countries such as these, expanding prosperity and securing improvements in living standards are particularly important.[Click]Global energy demand is projected to grow by about 35% through 2040, a much slower pace than economic growth, reflecting large gains in energy efficiency. Most of the growth in energy demand is in the Non OECD countries, where rapid economic growth is outpacing gains in efficiency.In developing countries in Africa and Asia Pacific, one of the most significant challenges is extending access to modern energy and technologies as even today 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity and 2.6 billion still use biomass fuels for cooking.In mature economies of the OECD, energy demand will be flat-to-lower, even as GDP in OECD countries is expected to rise by about 80%. This reflects ongoing efficiency gains and an already-high level of energy usage.If efficiency did not improve from current levels, global energy demand in 2040 would be about 500 Quadrillion BTUs higher than projected. As the world's population expands, and living standards continue to improve, the world will need more energy even as we use energy more efficiently.Non OECDOECDExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
5Key Growth Countries (2040) Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 20402040 Energy DemandPercent ShareQUADS60+ CountriesTurkeyEgyptThailandOther25%South AfricaChina~40%NigeriaKey Growth20%MexicoIndia~15%IranSaudi ArabiaHere on the left we show developing countries economic growth from 2010 to 2040, broken down by country/region.China and India make up over half of this economic growth. This allows us to focus on 10 countries that we call “Key Growth”. They will make up slightly more than 20% of the developing economy GDP growth.This means that about 75% of growth can be accounted for by 12 countries (China, India and Key Growth), while the remaining 25% occurs in over 60+ other countries.Total energy demand in 2040 for these 10 countries, when combined, is equal to about 80 percent of China’s demand. This group represents ~30% of incremental energy demand growth globally. (China 27% and India 22%). This group includes two OECD countries – Mexico and Turkey which we selected because of growing economic output and energy demand.[Click]10 CountriesIndonesiaBrazilExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
6Southeast Asia Energy Trends PopulationGDPEnergy DemandBillionTrillion 2005$Quadrillion BTUsAverage Growth / Yr.2010 – 20400.9%Average Growth / Yr.2010 – 20404.2%Average Growth / Yr.2010 – 20402.2%Let’s begin with a look at what drives energy trends in Southeast Asia. It is important to understand the linkage between population growth, economic progress and the amount and type of energy used around the world. Growing populations continue to advance economically over time and seek better living standards, which impacts energy use. Studying these linkages gives us a more accurate assessment of future energy demand.Starting with the chart on the left, you see that in 2010, South East Asia’s population was roughly 700 million people and this is expected to increase an average of 0.9% per year to reach about 900 million by 2040.The middle panel looks at economic output in South East Asia, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP at market exchange rates). GDP is expected to more than triple by 2040 versus 2010 with annual growth averaging over 4% per year.The right panel shows the forecast for energy demand in quadrillion BTUs (quads). Energy demand is expected to grow significantly from 2010, nearly doubling by 2040.Even so, it is striking to note that energy demand is growing at a much slower rate than GDP. This reflects that we expect South East Asia to be much more energy-efficient in the future.[Click]ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
7Southeast Asia Energy Demand by Country By FuelBy CountryQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsRest of Southeast AsiaOther RenewablesPhilippinesBiomassSingaporeNuclearCoalVietnamMalaysiaGasThailandStarting on the left, overall Southeast Asia energy demand is almost doubling from 2010 to 2040Fossil fuels will continue to meet most of the needs during this period. Oil demand grows the most primarily in the Transportation sector. Coal is a close second, but as a mentioned earlier there is considerable uncertainty around this growth. Gas grows rapidly for both Industrial use and Electricity Generation as distribution pipelines are expanded.Traditional biomass is about flat as crop, industrial, and municipal waste is consumed in more industrial and power plants but this is offset by a decline in use for cooking and heating as it is replaced by LPG and natural gas.Other renewables grow strongly with some large hydro projects planned and rapid growth in wind and solar from a small base.On the right, we show energy demand broken out for the key countries in Southeast Asia. All the countries show strong growth in demand, driven by increasing incomes. While Indonesia and Thailand account for about half the energy demand, no one country dominates the demand mix within this region.[Click]OilIndonesia7
8Residential/Commercial Slide Overview: Residential/Commercial demand by sector, region and fuel types (including electricity)The majority of the growth in energy demand used in buildings is expected to come from the residential sector, although energy for commercial and other public facilities will actually grow at a faster pace.These energy needs reflect rising populations as well as an ongoing shift of people from rural to urban settings.This shift generally leads to greater energy use in homes and other buildings for cooking, indoor temperature control, lighting, appliances and other equipment (e.g., computer/information systems).Residential/Commercial energy demand grows by 30%.Most of the growth is in the residential sector, as the total households in the world are expected to rise from 1.9 billion to 2.8 billion.Rising incomes also drive increased energy demand for air-conditioning, appliances and electronics.Growth will be led by non-OECD countries, reflecting more households as well as more rapidly growing economies.[Click]In addition to overall demand growth, the Residential/Commercial sector is shifting to cleaner and more convenient forms of energy – primarily natural gas and electricity.This is an important transition since the use of biomass carries major health consequences today in many developing nations where ~2.6 billion people use it for basic cooking. Over time, as access to modern energy and technology expands, the use of biomass will begin to decline.Demand for electricity is expected to grow by ~90% over the Outlook, helping extend access to 1.3 billion people that are without electricity today.Semanggi - Jakarta
9Residential/Commercial Outlook By SectorBy RegionBy FuelQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsOtherCommercialRest of WorldElectricityAfricaIndiaChinaBiomassResidentialCoalThree significant drivers of global energy needs – population, urbanization and improving living standards – are evident in the residential and commercial sectors.OECDGasOilExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
10S.E. Asia Residential/Commercial Demand By SectorBy FuelQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsCommercialElectricityOther RenewablesBiomassResidentialResidential/Commercial demand is expected to grow 55% by 2040 versus This is the result of growth in the number of households as population continues to grow and people per household declines.Residential demand grows relatively slowly as household creation slows and many households transition from traditional biomass to more modern fuels like LPG and electricity accelerates and. The increased efficiency of these modern fuels relative to biomass means that growth in Southeast Asia’s residential sector demand will slow even as more households gain access to modern household appliances and electronics.The Commercial sector demand shows robust growth, more than doubling as urbanization and increased personal incomes support demand for offices, schools, hospitals, shopping areas and other public buildings.[Click]GasCoalOilExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy10
11IndustrialThe industrial sector is a major consumer of energy – this is intuitively obvious when you begin to contemplate all the physical structures and products in our world today. All these required energy throughout a variety of industrial processes to take raw materials and transform them into a finished state for our use.
12Southeast Asia Industrial Demand By SectorBy FuelQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUsChemicalsElectricityBiomassCoalHeavy IndustryGasOverall Industrial demand increases 85% from 2010 to About 95% of the growth is in the two largest sub-sectors, Chemicals and Heavy Industry.Heavy Industry demand (Steel, cement, textiles, and general manufacturing) increases about 130% from 2010 to 2040, driven by rapid infrastructure build in several countries in Southeast Asia and the associated steel and cement production.Chemicals demand increases 70% over the period as production increases to meet demand growth.The right panel shows Industrial demand by fuel. Oil growth is primarily as a Chemical feedstock. We expect industrial coal demand growth to slow in the later half of the Outlook as lower direct emission energy sources like natural gas and electricity gain share.[Click]Energy IndustryOilOtherExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy12
13Transportation Alun-alun Selatan Transportation is one of the most familiar and prominent sectors, and it's the one that has the biggest influence on oil demand. That's because right now, nearly all [95%] the world's transportation is powered by oil products. Liquid fuels are so prevalent because small volumes, at affordable prices, provide lots of energy, making them easy to transport and widely available. For example, the energy concentrated in one gallon of gasoline is equivalent to the energy that your smartphone needs to run for 3000 days or more.*[Click]* Comparison is based on “top 10” smartphone models, reflecting a range of battery capacities. Results range from 18 years for the Apple iPhone 5 (1440 mAh, 3.8 volts) to about 8 years for the Motorola DROID RAZR MAXX HD (3300 mAh, 3.8 volts). The straight average for the 10 phones selected is ~11 years.Alun-alun Selatan
14Transportation Demand Sector DemandCommercial Transportation by RegionCommercial Transportation by RegionMBDOEMBDOERailMarineAviationHeavy DutySlide Overview: Transportation demand by sectorIn assessing energy for transportation, we look at five distinct sub-sectors.Overall energy demand in the Transportation sector is being driven by the commercial activity in the heavy duty, aviation, marine and rail sub-sectors.Demand for commercial transportation is expected to increase by 70% -- driven by economic growth in all regions.The largest driver of commercial transportation demand is heavy-duty vehicles, whose demand is expected to rise by about 70 percent.Commercial transportation demand grows in nearly every country, with Asia Pacific leading the way (Asia Pacific demand more than doubles).Demand for light-duty vehicles will be essentially flat, as two big changes cancel each other out:First, we expect the world’s passenger car fleet to double by 2040.At the same time, fuel economy will also double – so overall demand will be flat.[Click]All regions will see growth in transportation demand.Asia Pacific and North America are the biggest consumers of energy for commercial transportation in 2010Growth will be most prominent though in Asia Pacific reflecting rapid economic growth that drives commercial transportation, as well as significant penetration of light duty vehicles as incomes grow.2010Light DutyExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
15S.E. Asia Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift Light Duty Vehicle FleetMBDOEMillion CarsRailMarineAviationHeavy DutyHere we look at the Southeast Asia’s transportation sector with units of Million Barrels per Day Oil Equivalent (MBDOE). We use MBDOE because liquid fuels make up the majority of transportation fuels.On the left, we show total transportation-related energy demand through 2040, broken down by sub-sectors. Over this period, ExxonMobil sees total transportation demand nearly doubling.Almost 80% of this increase will be for Commercial transportation demand, which covers Heavy Duty Vehicles (e.g. freight trucks and buses), Aviation, Marine and Rail. This is driven by strong growth in freight traffic and increasing incomes enabling air travel for a larger part of the population.If you look at the bottom wedge of the graph, you see demand for light-duty vehicles, cars, SUV’s and light pickup trucks, increases about 70%. This is due to rapid growth in the car fleet that is partially offset as conventional vehicle fuel economy improves and the fleet mix changes. Let's take a closer look at that.[Click]Here we show the Southeast Asia light-duty fleet in millions of cars split between conventional vehicles, namely gasoline and diesel, and advanced technologies such as full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicles.The Southeast Asia car fleet more than triples from ~20 million in 2010 to over 75 million in During this period several countries in Southeast Asia are in the “sweet spot” income per capita when families can buy their first car.Conventional vehicles continue to get more efficient. At the same time advanced vehicles gain share versus as they become economic to a broader range of consumers. By 2040, advance vehicles make up about 30% of the fleet – with the majority of those being full hybrid vehicles.Light DutyExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy15
16Electricity Generation Only a century ago, electricity was just emerging for general use. It’s remarkable, then, that power generation today is the world’s single-largest source of energy demand.Worldwide electricity use is projected to increase by 90 percent from 2010 to 2040, with developing countries accounting for the overwhelming majority of that increase.
17Southeast Asia Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Fuel ConsumptionThousand Terawatt HourQuadrillion BTUsOther RenewablesWind & SolarBiomassNuclearStarting on the left, electricity demand in South East Asia electricity demand is expected to more than triple from 2010 to The growth is across all sectors supported by increasing personal incomes, increasing industrial production, and electricity capturing a greater share of energy delivery. About 45% of this growth is in Heavy Industry for steel and cement production and general manufacturing.The right panel shows the fuel consumed to generate electricity. The largest growth is in coal. Natural gas continues to play a significant role in regional power generation. Renewables also grow, with several large hydro projects underway or planned and expansion of geothermal in Indonesia and the Philippines. Some countries are also pursuing nuclear power [Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam].Gas for electricity generation more than doubles across the period driven by factors in addition to base load plant economics. These include the relatively low SOX, NOX and CO2 emissions – up to 60% lower than coal – and the fact that gas is very economic to meet varying electricity demand loads that peak with air conditioning and other appliance use. This is extremely important because more and more electricity demand in rapidly developing countries is varying load with high demand during the day and during the hot season.Coal grows the most volumetrically but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the extent of coal use in South East Asia. Thailand has plans for a large increase in coal power plants but historically has seen strong opposition from local populations. In Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, growth in coal electricity generation is subject to potential increased availability of domestic gas, local environmental concerns, and in some cases the challenge to get long term coal import contracts in place to underpin coal power plant development. Prolonged delays of new coal plants would increase the opportunity for more gas use for electricity generation.[Click]CoalGasOilExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy17
18Emissions Semanggi - Jakarta In recent years, many nations have begun to identify and address climate risks associated with rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since energy use is a significant contributor to GHG emissions, climate policies that target these emissions are likely to play a significant role in the world’s energy future by directly and indirectly affecting people’s energy choices.Since energy use is pervasive in every aspect of life around the world, and since policies to address GHG – and more specifically CO2 – emissions will tend to raise the cost of energy and related activities, many countries are taking care in structuring both thenature and the pace of GHG policy initiatives. This approach is understandable as a way to manage climate risks associated with GHG emissions while also minimizing related policy impacts on local economies, industrial competitiveness, energy security and the people’s ability to pay higher costs.[Click]EmissionsSemanggi - Jakarta
19CO2 Emissions Plateau Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Emissions per CapitaBillion TonnesTonnes / Person2010Asia Pacific2040Middle EastAfricaSlide Overview: Emissions by region and per-capitaAs a global society, we need to identify and assess climate risks associated with rising GHG emissions. Although climate policies remain uncertain today, for purposes of the Outlook to 2040, we assume that governments will continue to gradually adopt a wide variety of policies to help stem GHG emissions.Over time, as these policies advance and people respond to rising energy costs, we anticipate greater adoption of energy-saving technologies and practices, as well as lower CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed.Worldwide energy-energy related CO2 emissions will plateau around 2030 and then decline through 2040.Regionally, we see a variety of emission patterns through 2040, reflecting the different stages of economic development and varying degrees and types of energy used at a national level.Non-OECD emissions surpassed OECD emissions in 2004, largely due to significant economic progress and a carbon-intensive energy mix heavily dependent on coal.Increasingly, the world’s CO2 emissions will be driven by developing nations.Overall, non-OECD emissions are likely to rise about 50 percent, as energy demand rises by about two-thirds.Over the same period, OECD emissions are likely to decline approximately 25 percent and approach a 25 percent share of global emissions – down from about 40 percent in 2010.Looking ahead to 2040, we anticipate OECD and non-OECD nations will continue to improve the energy-efficiency of their economies, but also shift toward less carbon-intensive energy sources. Together, these factors will help global CO2 emissions peak around 2030.[Click]On a per-capita basis, we expect OECD nations will reduce emissions per capita over the Outlook, but still be much higher than the level in non-OECD countries even by 2040.Latin AmericaRussia/CaspianEuropeNorth AmericaExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
20SupplyAdvances in technology continue to make a wide range of energy supplies available to consumers. At the same time, the fuels that people and businesses choose to meet their needs continue to evolve. These choices are based not just on price, but also on attributes like convenience, performance and environmental effects.Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing major fuel through 2040, while oil is expected to remain the number-one source of energy worldwide.
21Liquids Supply Liquid Supply by Type Crude and Condensate Resource* MBDOETrillion barrels of oilBiofuelsOil SandsTight OilDeepwaterOtherRemaining ResourceNGLsConventional Crude & CondensateSlide Overview: Liquids supply by type; liquids resourcesOver the coming decades, energy sources will continue to evolve and diversify, driven by changes in technology, consumer needs, and public policies. But liquid supplies — primarily crude oil — are projected to remain the single biggest source of energy and vital to transportation.Globally, conventional crude production will likely decline slightly over the Outlook period though still account for more than half of all liquids production.At the same time, rising production from supply sources enabled by new technologies — including tight oil, deepwater and oil sands – will serve to meet increasing global demand.Deepwater supplies will grow by more than 150 percent by 2040.Tight oil production is projected to rise by more than 1,000 percent from 2010 to 2040, led by North America.Oil derived from oil sands will rise by almost 300 percent over the Outlook period; supplies are concentrated in Canada and Venezuela.By 2040, more than 40% of global liquid supply will be from sources other than conventional crude and condensate.[Click]Ongoing advances in exploration and production technology continue to expand the size of the world’s recoverable crude and condensate (C&C) resources.Despite rising liquids production, in 2040 over 60% of estimated crude and condensate recoverable resources will have yet to be produced.Based on current C&C production levels (~78 MBD in 2012), the estimated recoverable resource (~4.4 TBO excluding NGLs and kerogen per the IEA) represents about 150 years of future supply.This reflects is a positive and consistent trend over many years – namely that the assessment of recoverable resources continues to grow as human innovation continues to find new ways to access more of the world’s resources. This is great news in light of people’s growing needs for energy.Cumulative Production through 2040* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
22Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies Remaining Recoverable Resource*Gas Production by RegionGas Production by TypeThousand TCFBCFDBCFDROWAfricaAfricaAPUnconventionalMiddle EastMiddle EastNAUnconventionalAsia PacificAsia PacificRussia/CaspianRussia/CaspianSlide Overview: Natural gas resources and production by region/typeNatural gas will continue to play an increasingly important role in meeting global energy needs. Utilities, industries and other consumers are choosing this fuel because it is widely available, versatile, affordable and produces relatively low emissions.Natural gas will be the fastest growing major energy supply through 2040.Growth is supported by remaining resources equivalent to ~200 years supply.Estimates of recoverable gas have doubled in the last 10 to 15 years as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies have unlocked the prospect of recovering unconventional gas — the natural gas found in shale and other dense rock formations that only recently became economic to produce.Unconventional natural gas – shale gas, tight gas and coal bed methane – accounts for ~40 percent of the global resource base.[Click]Natural gas resources are geographically diverse. Production through 2040 will reflect this diversity, with strong growth in most regions.Unconventional gas resources unlocked by technology -- the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing -- are playing an important and increasing role in meeting demand.The safe and economic supply of gas from these resources is one of the most significant developments in assessing our energy future -- made possible by breakthroughs developed in the United States.These resources will account for ~65% of the growth in global gas production, led by North America.This abundant supply is expected to enable North America to shift from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 as production outpaces demand.ConventionalEuropeConventionalEuropeLatin AmericaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaNorth America2012* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
23Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Mix of FuelsQuadrillion BTUsOther RenewablesNuclearHydroGasSlide Overview: Global energy mixOver the past two centuries, advances in technology have fundamentally changed our world and the energy people use to sustain and improve their lives.As technologies and needs have evolved, people have naturally sought practical solutions with energy that are reliable, affordable and convenient.Global energy supplies once were dominated by wood and coal.Today, the mix of fuels is far more diverse, efficient and cleaner-burning. We expect that evolution to continue.Over time, new technologies can create new sources of energy; they also can create new demands for energy (e.g. cars, commercial aviation, telecommunications).Today's energy needs/supplies reflect unprecedented levels of scale, complexity and diversity.The transition in the world's energy mix has been dramatic, but significant change is measured in decades.In addition to time, the transition of energy also takes huge investments – the IEA estimates investment in new energy infrastructure will need to be ~$1.6 trillion per year over the next couple of decades.The evolution of human progress, technology and energy will continue – reflecting actions and choices by consumers, suppliers and policymakers.[Click]OilCoalBiomass180018501900195020002040Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( )ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
24Positioned to Take on the Challenges HistoryCorporate CitizenshipBusinessStrengthWorkforceBut ExxonMobil is well positioned to tackle these challenges – and others that have yet to be defined.First, we have a long history of overcoming obstacles. We excel at meeting complex issues head-on and producing positive results for our customers, suppliers, shareholders and others.We’ve been doing so since the late 19th century, and we have a breadth and depth of experience that is unmatched.In addition, our superior business strength and strong financial performance means that we can consistently devote resources where needed.We create and use breakthrough technology in major facets of the energy business, and we’re always working on new technologies. In fact, we believe that technology is the key to ensuring that sufficient energy supplies are available to meet growing needs.Finally, our workforce is skilled and experienced, and committed to creating innovative solutions to the industry’s challenges.Our business principles and dedication to good corporate citizenship are embedded in all the strengths I just mentioned – history, business strength, technology and workforce.In other words, ExxonMobil is dedicated to meeting the world’s growing energy needs, and we’ll do so in an economically, environmentally and socially responsible manner.That’s the commitment we’ve made as a company, and that’s the commitment we make each day as employees.Technology
25Technology and Innovations Advanced Drilling —Surpassing 7 Miles HorizontallyUnconventional GasArcticLNG tankerThe use of technologies such as 3D seismic imaging and horizontal drilling have enabled us to access more reservoirs ... and recover higher percentages of what we reach. In our Sakhalin operations in northeast Russia, for example, [CLICK] we’ve been using leading-edge directional drilling technology to reach oil and gas reserves more than seven miles from the shore -- about the distance from this room to [insert local reference] -- with pinpoint accuracy. [CLICK] The image at bottom left is derived from 3D Seismic imaging – a technology invented by ExxonMobil. By utilizing advanced software and our own geological knowledge, seismic imaging has vastly improved our ability to see beneath the earth’s surface to identify new energy sources.[CLICK] And advances in LNG technologies are enabling natural gas to be delivered safely and efficiently anywhere in the world. For example, new liquefaction trains, developed in partnership with Qatar Petroleum, are 60 percent larger than the previous generation, and new LNG tankers are 80 percent larger than ships built just two years ago. That’s enabled us to cut costs by more than 25 percent, making imported LNG globally competitive.These are just a few examples – innovations that have gone from concept to reality in recent years. Together, these innovations are making the unconventional ... conventional – and enabling us to produce energy more effectively, more efficiently, and with less environmental impact than ever before.Oil Sands
26Global OrganizationI’d like to draw your attention to the map shown here.If you focus on the countries in green This is where ExxonMobil has operations.ExxonMobil conducts operations in more than 200 countries in the world, and is the world’s largest non-government owned petroleum company.We are an industry leader in almost every aspect of the energy and petrochemical business from exploration and production, to refining and supply including petrochemicals, mining and electrical power generation around the world. ExxonMobil employs 88,000 people worldwide, with 60% of these outside the US.This is an extremely positive message, as this outlines the scope and opportunity for a varied career both in Indonesia and overseas. Currently there are over 30 Indonesia expatriates and rotators on assignment around the world.
27115 Years of Presence in Indonesia With 115 years of experience in Indonesia, ExxonMobil remains committed and is invested for the long term. We look forward to the continued involvement of its employees in the successful pursuit of exploration, development and production opportunities in Indonesia.Our good corporate citizenship and superior business strength and financial performance, make ExxonMobil the partner of choice to develop Indonesia’s energy resources.ExxonMobil continues to invest in the communities in which we operate with National Content i.e. supplier development, workforce development and strategic community investment.ExxonMobil works in a safe, reliable and socially responsible manner with our partners to bring the Banyu Urip resources into full production as planned to help meet Indonesia’s energy needs.We tackle challenging environment through effective dialogue and cooperative action by governments, business and civil society.
28Aceh Production Operations Cepu BlockBanyu Urip Project StatusBanyu Urip is being built by 10,000 Indonesian workers, who make up 95 percent of the overall workforceInitial production of oil with a capacity of up to 40,000 barrels per dayThe project is expected to reach daily production capacity of 165,000 barrels in 2015.Banyu Urip will continue to ramp up production until it reaches full-field capacity in 2015.Three onshore gas fields. Divided in two Arun PSCs, South Lhoksukon (SLS) A and D, as well as one offshore gas field, the North Sumatra Offshore (NSO) A.Gas produced from fields is sent to a facility owned by PT Arun NGL then managed to become LNG. Until now, PT Arun has supplied more than 4000 cargoes of LNG to Pertamina for sale to consumers in Korea and Japan.
29ConclusionsSlide Overview: Wrap up (featuring cover of 2014 Outlook for Energy report)The Outlook for Energy highlights the fact that energy is all around us – providing benefits in every aspect of modern life.By 2040, global needs for energy will grow by 35% as economies expand, living standards rise and the world’s population increases by close to 2 billion people.We are confident in the world's ability to meet future energy demand.Good, practical energy options continue to expand, including the oil and natural gas that will be the world's top two fuels by 2040.This expansion is the result of ongoing advances in technology and decades of investment on the part of energy companies.To ensure reliable, affordable energy, we should continue to pursue all practical options.No option should be arbitrarily denied, dismissed, penalized -- or promoted. And we should encourage and facilitate and free trade.Governments should foster innovation and free markets that leave consumers free to pursue more and better options, while also promoting more opportunities and better living standards across society.We should all promote sound cost/benefit analysis, and transparent legislative and regulatory processes. These elements are important for promoting economic growth, competitiveness, energy security and environmental protection.By continuing to support the advancement of technology and the pursuit of all practical energy options, the world will be able to safely and responsibly meet global energy demand and expand prosperity.We hope this overview of our energy future is useful to you.I’ll be glad to take questions now.[Click]ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy