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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones Florida International University February 5, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements.

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Presentation on theme: "The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones Florida International University February 5, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones Florida International University February 5, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors Residential Commercial Lt. Transportation Hvy. Transportation Aviation Marine Rail Chemicals Asphalt Lubricants Flaring Energy Industry Agriculture Heavy Industry Power Generation Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass/Other Coal Hydro Geothermal 20 fuel types Solar Wind Bio-mogas Bio-distillate Electricity Market Heat Technology & Policy Trade Flows

3 Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.8% OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

4 People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

5 People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

6 People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

7 Energy Saved ~500 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 1.0% Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.8% OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

8 Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010) 2010 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010 City – 10 million + Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

9 Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040) 2040 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010 City – 10 million + 2040 City – 10 million + Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

10 Tale of Two Worlds Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Biomass Other Renewables Oil Nuclear Quadrillion BTUs OECD Coal Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

11 Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2010 2025 2040 Electricity Generation Leads Growth ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

12 Residential/Commercial

13 Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Commercial Residential By Region Quadrillion BTUs Rest of World OECD By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs India Africa China Oil Gas Coal Biomass Electricity Other ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

14 Industrial

15 By Sector Energy Industry Chemicals Heavy Industry Other Percent Share By Fuel Percent Share Other Oil Oil NGLs Naphtha Other Electricity Coal Gas Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India Rest of Non OECD 2010 2040 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

16 Heavy Industry in China and India Global Iron & Steel Production Billion Tonnes Heavy Industry* Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India Rest of World ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy* Iron & Steel, Cement and General Manufacturing OECD China India Rest of World

17 Transportation

18 Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand MBDOE 2010 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

19 Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon U.S. Average Fleet Europe Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Car Fleet by Type Million Cars ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

20 Transportation Fuel Mix by Region Asia Pacific MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Biodiesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Natural Gas North America MBDOE Europe MBDOE ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

21 U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics 3-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Heavy Duty Vehicles Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost 5-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Light Duty Vehicles Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost LNG Tanks Long Haul Truck ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

22 Electricity Generation

23 Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Residential Commercial Heavy Industry Other Industry Transportation Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

24 2040 1000 KWh per Capita Population (Billions) Electricity Use Electricity Use by Region Growth in Electricity Demand 2010 – 2040 ~90% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

25 Plant Cost, Startup 2030 CCS Onshore Wind Gas Coal Gas 2013 cents/kWh CoalNuclear $60/tonne of CO 2 $0/tonne Solar PV Utility CCS Onshore Wind Gas Coal Gas 2013 cents/kWh CoalNuclear *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs. Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity BaseloadIntermittent Reliability Cost* ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

26 Emissions

27 2030 ~ 60 $/ton CO 2 “Proxy” Cost 2040 ~ 20 $/ton ~ 15 $/ton ~ 80 $/ton < 10 $/ton CO 2 “Proxy” Cost CO 2 Policies ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

28 Emissions per GDP Tonnes / 2005$ k GDP 2010 2040 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Moderate Billion Tonnes CO 2 EmissionsEmissions per Capita Tonnes / Person OECD Non OECD 2010 2040 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

29 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2040 2010 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

30 Supply

31 Liquids Supply Liquid Supply by Type MBDOE Other Biofuels Conventional Crude & Condensate Tight Oil Oil Sands NGLs Deepwater Crude and Condensate Resource* Cumulative Production through 2040 Remaining Resource Trillion barrels of oil * Source: IEAExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA

32 Major New Liquids by Region MBDOE NGLs Deepwater Oil Sands Biofuels North America Latin America Middle East Africa Tight Oil ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

33 Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand 1000 TCF Conventional Unconventional 4.0 North America 3.0 Latin America 1.6 Europe OECD 3.6 Africa 4.8 Middle East 6.7 Russia/ Caspian* 4.9 Asia Pacific Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

34 Gas Supply Diversifies Unconventional Production by Type BCFD Tight Coalbed Methane Shale ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy North America Middle East Gas Production by Region Russia/Caspian Africa Latin America Europe Asia Pacific BCFD Unconventional Conventional ROW Gas Production by Type

35 BCFD Pipeline LNG Local Unconventional Local Conventional By Type Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2040 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

36 LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies BCFD LNG in 2040 Asia Pacific Other 2010 Pacific Basin Europe Middle East Atlantic Basin ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

37 Global Energy Trade ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy Indicative trade flows

38 Liquids Trade North America MBDOE Net Exports Net Imports Latin America Africa Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Russia/Caspian ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

39 Natural Gas Trade North America BCFD Net Exports Net Imports Latin America Africa Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Russia/Caspian ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

40 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Percent Global Percent Mix of Fuels 18001900200018501950 Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960) 2040

41 Conclusions ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy


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