1. Population Geography

2. 1800=almost 1 billion 1900=2 billion 1965=3.3 billion 2000=6 billion
2020=?????
TCL_11e_Figure_02_08_L

3. Population Distribution
Population cartogram. Size of country shown in proportion to its total population.

4. China 1.35 b. India 1.26 b. U.S. 314 m. Indonesia 241 m. Brazil 194 m.
Pakistan m.
Nigeria m.
Russia m.
Bangladesh 153 m.
Japan m.
Mexico m.
Philippines 94 m.
Vietnam m.
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5. Population Density
Arithmetic & Physiological

6. Tells us more about access to resources
Tells us more about access to resources. The greater the physiological density, the greater pressure exerted on land used for farming. Can a country have high arithmetic AND physiological density even if it has a lot of arable land?

7. Fertility CBR TFR CBR: Monaco=6 46 in Mali, Niger, Zambia World CBR=20
U.S.=13
TFR=2.1 replacement level

8. Total Fertility Rates (TFR):
average number of children per childbearing years per woman
Niger: South Korea: 1.23
Mali: Singapore: 0.78
Italy: 1.40
France: (highest in Europe!)

9. Why Variability in Fertility?
Economic factors
Health factors
Gender equality
Social/cultural factors
Government policy
Moscow, Russia
Jaipur, India

10. Mortality
CDR
None higher than 23 today.
Lowest in Middle East (1-2 in Qatar & Kuwait), highest in Africa (Lesotho, 23, Sierra Leone, 20)
Why does death rate NOT tell us about quality of life in a country?

11. Indicators of quality of life: life expectancy & infant mortality rates
Okinawa, Japan: 50 centenarians per 100, x higher than similar countries. Any other such “blue zones”?
Can life expectancy decline for a country? Impact of AIDS/HIV?
AIDS in Kenya

12. IMR reflects access to prenatal care as well as nutrition and safe water.
At beginning of 1900, US had an IMR over 100, today it is about 6.

13. Population Structure & Change
Population pyramids: age and sex cohorts
Age dependency ratios

15. Population Pyramids: reflect the structure of a population
Dependency and Sex Ratios

16. Japan’s Changing Population Pyramid

17. Dependency Ratios—under age 15 for every 100 aged 15-64
Dependency Ratios can also include over age 65 for every 100 aged
TCL_11e_Figure_02_15_L
Both the Philippines & Japan have high age-dependency ratios—why?

18. Natural sex ratio: 105 boys: 100 girls born Extremes:
Sex Ratios
TCL_11e_Figure_02_16_L
Natural sex ratio: 105 boys: 100 girls born
Extremes:
China 118:100, 160:100 for 2nd births India :100

19. How fast is a population growth?
RNI=CBR-CDR/1000x100=% increase World’s RNI=1.2%=85 mill/2012

20. World Population Doubling Times
Ethiopia RNI 2.4%=29 years doubling time
Spain RNI 0.2%=350 years doubling time
Date
Estimated Population
Number of Years in Which Population Doubles at Current Growth Rate
400,000 bce
500,000
8000 bce
5,000,000
59,000 1
300,000,000
1354
1750
795,000,000
1250
1800
985,000,000
163
1850
1,266,000,000
136
1900
1,656,000,000
129
1950
2,516,000,000 85
2000
6,080,000,000 40

21. England’s Demographic Transition:
What causes death rates to drop in 1750?

22. Demographic Transition Model:
Stage 1: Low Growth
Stage 2: High Growth
Stage 3: Slowing Growth
Stage 4: Low Growth

23. Doesn’t account for migration.
Limits to the model:
Doesn’t account for migration.
Can’t be used to make predictions.
Based on Europe—can we expect all countries to ‘behave’ as European countries did?
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24. Theories on Population
Thomas Malthus
Optimists: Cornucopian Theory
Social Critics: Food Insecurity

25. Was Malthus Correct?
Neo-Malthusians—Malthus essentially correct: carrying capacity

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27. Case Studies China’s One Child Policy Kerala, India’s Social Justice
Romania’s Pro-Natalist Policy

28. China’s Later, Longer, Fewer Campaign
Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

30. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

31. I CAN’T GET A DATE!!
“As a result, approximately 30 million more men than women will reach
Adulthood and enter China’s mating market by 2020.” CNN

32. Fareed Zakaria on China’s “Looming Demographic Catastrophe”

33. The Kerala Model Health Indicators Kerala India Crude Birth Rate 14
(US is 16) 25
Infant Mortality 12 53
Total Fertility
1.7
2.9
Maternal Mortality
110
301
Life Expectancy (women)
76.3
64.2
Literacy Rate (female) 1951
36.43%
Literacy Rate (female) 2011
92.12%