1. VULNERABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND OTHER LAND COVER TYPES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES R.D. Lasco, F.B. Pulhin, R.V.O. Cruz, J.M. Pulhin and S.S.N. Roy University of the Philippines at Los Banos

2. Outline of Presentation Introduction Objectives Methods Results and discussion Adaptation strategy and options Watershed scale impacts and adaptation Conclusions

3. Introduction World’s forests contain majority of the world’s biodiversity resources Forests are highly dependent on climate Philippine forests have high floral and faunal diversity Harbor 13,000 species or 5% of world’s total Effects of climate change have not been studied

4. Objectives Determine the potential vegetative cover of the Philippines without human intervention using the Holdridge Life Zones; Simulate changes in present vegetative cover as a result of climate change using GIS and the Holdridge Life Zones; Assess the vulnerability of forest and biodiversity resources in the Philippines to climate change; and Identify and assess potential adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

5. 2. Assess Current Vulnerability 1. Scope Project Design 3. Characterize Future Climate-related Risks 4. Develop Adaptation Strategy 5. Continue Adaptation Process Increase Adaptive Capacity Engage Stake- holders UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

6. Methods 0.125 Wet Forest Wet Forest Moist Forest Moist Forest Dessert Scrub Dessert Scrub Rain Forest Rain Forest Rain Forest Rain Forest (Rain Paramo) Rain Tundra Rain Forest Wet Forest Wet Forest (Paramo) Wet Tundra Wet Forest Moist Forest Moist Forest (Puna) Moist Tundra Moist Forest Dry Forest Steppe Dry Scrub Dry Tundra Dry Forest Dessert Scrub Dessert Very Dry Forest Dessert Thorn Woodlan d Dessert Dessert Scrub Dessert Thorn Steppe Thorn Woodland FROST LINE OR CRITICAL TEMPERATURE LINE 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 250 125 0.25 0.50 1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 LOWER MONTANE PREMONTANE MONTANE SUBALPINE ALPINE NIVAL WARM TEMPERATE SUBTROPICAL COOL TEMPERATE BOREAL SUBPOLAR POLAR TROPICAL 1.5  C 3C3C 6C6C 12  C 24  C LATITUDINAL REGIONS ALTITUDINAL BELTS Average Total Annual Precipitation in Millimeters Potential Evapotranspiration Ratio The Holdridge System of vegetative cover classification Mean Annual Biotemperature

7. Precipitation= annual rainfall (mm) Biotemperature: Mean annual biotemperature (MAB)= Σ (0 < T < 30)/ 12 months or Mean annual biotemperature= Σ (0 < T < 30)/365 days Moisture: Mean Annual PET= (MAB) (58.93) PET Ratio= Mean Annual PET/Mean Annual P

8. Table 1 Synthetic climate change scenarios Increase in Rainfall (% relative to present) Increase in Temperature ( o C) 11.52.0 50Scenario 1aScenario 1bScenario 1c 100Scenario 2aScenario 2bScenario 2c 150Scenario 3aScenario 3bScenario 3c

9. ArcGIS 8.1 was used to process the maps needed for the Holdridge Life Zone. Average rainfall (1961-1990) ranges from 1000mm – 4000mm. A Thiessen map was created from the 55 stations all over the Philippines. Average temperature (1949-2002) ranges from 19.3  C – 28.2  C. Land use map is based on 1993 map prepared by the Presidential Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management. 6 million hectares of forests left (excluding brushland and man-made forest)

10. Forest vegetation types in the Philippines: closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50% open canopy, mature trees covering < 50% mossy forest pine forest Potential and actual Holdridge Life Zone determined Impacts of climate change analyzed

11. Results and Discussion

12. Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp No Classification Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Dry Forest Legend Figure 2a: Potential Holdridge life zones in the Philippines without human influence.

13. Comparison of potential and actual (based on 1993 data) life zones in the Philippines Life Zone Type Area Distribution (Ha) PotentialActual Dry Forest8,763,6961,082,197 Moist Forest15,149,3153,534,636 Rain Forest 00 Wet Forest5,646,4142,266,455 TOTAL29,559,4266,883,289

14. Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp No Classification Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Dry Forest Legend

15. Life Zone (1a) - precip (50%  ) - temp (1  C  ) Life Zone (1b) - precip (50%  ) - temp (1.5  C  ) Life Zone (1c) - precip (50%  ) - temp (2  C  ) Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 1 (50% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase. No Classification Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Dry Forest Legend

16. Life Zone (2a) - precip (100%  ) - temp (1  C  ) Life Zone (2b) - precip (100%  ) - temp (1.5  C  ) Life Zone (2c) - precip (100%  ) - temp (2  C  ) Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 2 (100% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase. No Classification Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Dry Forest Legend

17. Life Zone (3a) - precip (200%  ) - temp (1  C  ) Life Zone (3b) - precip (200%  ) - temp (1.5  C  ) Life Zone (3c) - precip (200%  ) - temp (2  C  ) No Classification Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Dry Forest Legend

18. Scenario 1 Life Zone Type Area Distribution (Ha) Actual1a1b1c Dry Forest1,082,197 0 00 Moist Forest3,534,6361,201,671 Rain Forest0 365,181361,099321,736 Wet Forest2,266,4555,316,4365,320,5185,359,880 No Classification TOTAL6,883,288

19. Life Zone Type Area Distribution (Ha) Actual2a2b2c Dry Forest1,082,197 0 0 0 Moist Forest3,534,6361,082,197 1,201,671 Rain Forest 02,266,455 2,007,262 Wet Forest2,266,4553,534,636 3,674,354 No Classification TOTAL6,883,288 6,883,286,883,288 Scenario 2

20. Life Zone Type Area Distribution (Ha) Actual3a3b3c Dry Forest1,082,197 0 0 0 Moist Forest3,534,636 0 0 0 Rain Forest0 5,316,4365,320,5185,359,880 Wet Forest2,266,4551,201,671 No Classification 365,181361,099321,736 TOTAL6,883,288 Scenario 3

21. Adaptation Strategy and Options little consideration of an overall climate change adaptation strategy and its various options for Philippine forest ecosystems. 1999 Philippines Initial National Communication contains adaptation options for watershed management that partly apply to forest ecosystems There are many laws and polices governing the use and conservation of forest resources in the Philippines

22. the government has been actively pursuing several initiatives in spite of its limited resources. Conservation of remaining forests in NIPAS sites and watershed areas. Reforestation and rehabilitation of barren upland areas through tree planting and agroforestry. Community-based forestry activities such as community organizing and development.

23. Climate change is hardly being considered at all in the planning process of forest resources. Its more urgent concern is to save the remaining forests from human exploitation which is the more imminent threat.

24. Philippine forests in general are not in danger of disappearing with climate change. certain forest types especially the dry forest types are highly vulnerable and could be replaced by other types of forests. an overall adaptation strategy should probably focus on identifying which forest areas are more at risk and which species are unique in these areas. Specific adaptation options could include helping vulnerable species migrate, assisting local communities shift from forest products from forests at risk, etc.

25. Watershed Scale: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Multi-stakeholder workshop Farmers, NGOs, DENR, LGUs

27. GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS Climate Variability ImpactDegree of Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Early or late onset of rainy season |La NinaLess fires El NinoForest fires Indicator: number of fires; area burned Highly vulnerable Indicator: Frequency of fires Area burned Fire brigade IEC Indicator: number of fire brigades, High Temperature/ Summer season Forest fires Indicator: number of fires, area burned Frequency of fires Area burned Fire lines Fire brigade Rainy seasonLess fires

29. TREE PLANTATIONS Climate Variability ImpactDegree of Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Early or late onset of rainy season High mortality of out planted seedlings (late) Indicator: % survival HighPlant after xx days of rain; Mulching; Irrigation (not practical); choice of species |La NinaHigher survival? El NinoForest fires Indicator|: frequency; area burned HighFires lines; fire brigades; IEC; choice of species High Temperature/ Summer season Forest fires Rainy seasonHigher survival?

31. NATURAL FORESTS Climate Variability ImpactDegree of Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Early or late onset of rainy season |La NinaMore landslides Indicators|: area; frequency Low El NinoForest fires on edges; increase slash and burn farming Indicators: area, frequency Medium High Temperature/ Summer season Fires on edges Rainy seasonMore landslides Indicators: area, frequency Low

33. UPLAND FARMS Climate Variability ImpactDegree of Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Early or late onset of rainy season Late: low yield Indicator|: yield Choice of early maturing crops |La NinaDamage to crops \Indicator\: yield Choice of varieties El NinoShortened planting season; lower yield; fires Indicator: yield; area and frequency of fires Choice of varieties High Temperature/ Summer season FiresChoice of varieties Rainy seasonFlooding of crops

35. LOWLAND FARMS Climate Variability ImpactDegree of Vulnerability Adaptation Measures Early or late onset of rainy season |La NinaFlooding of crops |Indicators|: area flooded HighChoice of variety El NinoLack of irrigation water |Indicators|: crop yield MediumChoice of variety; mulching High Temperature/ Summer season Rainy season

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