1. Click to edit Master title style Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry for the Environment

2. Click to edit Master title style Agriculture in New Zealand Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture) 44% of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral agriculture Highly export-dependent country (64% of total NZ exports) Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid

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4. Adaptation – Overview of Options Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change: Extension of growing season Wider range of products / market timing Managing gradual change: Adaptive breeding of cultivars On-going disease / biosecurity management Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies Managing extreme events: Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting Floods: land-use planning; warning systems

5. Click to edit Master title style Assessment Tools Top-down assessments: Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs Development of national impact assesment tools (CLIMPACTS) Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation - Preliminary economic assessments Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research Regulatory approaches – local government planning and strategies Bottom-up assessments: Specific topic and regional studies Cost of specific events – floods and droughts Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers

6. Click to edit Master title style GCM Downscaling Impacts on NZ Agriculture New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than global average due to oceanic influence Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier conditions in east, wetter in west Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most places) and drought risk (eastern regions) Biological effects of extension of growing season, change in species composition / disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation Reductions in cold hardening in some crops

7. Click to edit Master title style CLIMPACTS - Impacts Assessment Tool

8. Click to edit Master title style Impacts assessment – example kiwifruit 1990 2100

9. Click to edit Master title style Climate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment Drought is an important cause of variation in NZs GDP. Economic studies show impacts. Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in drought risk, severity and return frequency Adapting now has important co-benefits for future climate Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of Action on Water: quality, quanity

10. Click to edit Master title style Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)Research

11. Click to edit Master title style FACE Research Assessment now of impacts of future elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological systems IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems Provides insights into national and global adaptation strategies

12. Click to edit Master title style Regional Climate Assessments Farmers using information to manage for current climate variability Examples: GrowOTAGO climate / soil mapping project Kaipara / Far North climate / soil / crop project Southern Climate & Pasture Outlook

13. Click to edit Master title style Enabling Individual Farmers Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have received little attention from farmers Need to engage farmers at local scale with a view from the ground perspective Series of farmer interviews and workshops focusing on sustainability and positive options for managing risks covering: Diversification Water issues Good information at right level / timing

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15. Adaptation – Regulatory Responses Are part of Sustainable Development strategies Regulatory framework for adaptation: Regional Councils develop regional policies and manage natural resources/hazards Resource Management Act requires particular regard to the effects of climate change Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has been developed for local government Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable Development strategies and community-based long- term plans

16. Click to edit Master title style Conclusions Adaptation is very important for agricultural based economies whether developed or developing Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively known or poorly understood Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity. water management, biodiversity) Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but needs to be integrated into business decisions Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries