1. Topic 5 – Migration and Urbanization
A – Migration Issues
B – Migration Theory
C – Refugees
D – Urbanization

2. A Migration Issues 1. Types of Migration 2. Selective Migration
What are the major forms of migration?
2. Selective Migration
Why migration can be considered as a selective process?
3. Brain Drain
What is the extent of movements of skilled labor?

3. 1 Types of Migration Emigration and immigration A Requires information
Change in residence.
Relative to origin and destination.
Requires information
People and conditions.
Two different places.
Two different times.
Duration
Permanent.
Seasonal / Temporary.
Choice / constraint
Improve one’s life.
Leave inconvenient / threatening conditions. A
Problems or benefits?
Emigrant
Immigrant B
Problems or benefits?

4. 1 Types of Migration Gross migration Net Migration
Total number of people coming in and out of an area.
Level of population turnover.
Net Migration
Difference between immigration (in-migration) and emigration (out-migration).
Positive value:
More people coming in.
Population growth.
44% of North America and 88% of Europe.
Negative value:
More people coming out.
Population decline.
Gross migration
Immigration
Emigration
Net migration

5. Annual Net International Migration by Continent, 1990-95
Between 1990 and 1995, 45 percent of overall population growth in developed countries was due to immigration; in Europe the proportion was 88 percent. For more information see
Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, International Migration Policies 1995 (U.N., New York, 1996).

6. 1
Net Migration,

7. 1 Types of Migration International Migration
Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a society.
Crossing of a national boundary.
Easier to control and monitor.
Laws to control / inhibit these movements.
Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year.
Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people have migrated:
3% of the global population.

8. Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns1
Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns
Period
Policies
Pattern
Before 1914
Open policies (“showing up”). Immigration as a source of labor and development.
From developed (Europe) to developing countries (Americas, Africa, Australia). Immigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.
1920s and 1930s
“Closed door” linked with the economic depression. Deportation of immigrants.
Limited migration.
After 1945
More open policies. Reconstruction in Europe (12% of labor force) and economic growth in America.
Beginning to shift from developing to developed countries (12%).
After 1973
Relatively open policies, but with more stringent requirements. Growth of refugees and illegal immigration.
From developing to developed countries (88%). 3 million illegal immigrants entering the US per year.

9. World Migration Routes Since 1700
Source: adapted from Getis et al. (1991) “Introduction to Geography”. 3rd edition.
European
African (slaves)
Indian
Chinese
Japanese
Majority of population descended from immigrants

10. Total Slave Population, United States (1790-1860)

11. Major International Migration Patterns, 1990s

12. International Migration: Main Destination Countries, 1997
Source: OECD.

13. Immigration to the United States, 1820-2003
Latin America
Asia
Southeast
Europe
Germany
Scandinavia
British
Isles
Source: Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services,

14. Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 1999, INS, Note: incomplete data for 2000.

15. Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal Immigrants, 1995-2003
Country Estimated population Growth, Percent of total population of origin
(1) (2) (3)=(1)-(2) (4) (5)
All countries
Mexico El Salvador Guatemala Colombia Hondurasa
China Ecuador Dominican RepublicPhilippinesBrazil
Haiti India Peru Korea Canada
All other countries
7,000 3,500 3, % %
4,808 2,040 2, % 58.3%
% 8.5%
% 3.4%
% 1.4%
% 1.2%
% 2.0%
% 1.0%
% 1.3%
% 2.0%
% 0.6%
% 1.9%
% 0.8%
% 0.8%
% 0.7%
% 0.7%
Source: USCIS.

16. US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050
Source: US Census Bureau.

17. 1
Illegal Aliens in the United States by Country of Origin, (in 1,000s)
Source: USCIS. 10 million illegal immigrants are estimated to be in the US.

18. 1 Types of Migration Internal Migration Within one country.
Crossing domestic jurisdictional boundaries.
Movements between states or provinces.
Little government control.
Factors:
Employment-based.
Retirement-based.
Education-based.
Civil conflicts (internally displaced population).

19. 1
Migration by Major Metropolitan Areas in the United States, (in 1,000s)
Source: The Economist, March 11th 2000.

20. 1 Types of Migration Local Migration Central City Suburb
No state boundaries are crossed.
Buying a new house in the same town or city.
Difficult to research since they are usually missed in census data.
Based on change of income or lifestyle.
Often very high levels of local migration.
Americans change residence every 5 to 7 years.
Central City
Suburb

21. 1 Types of Migration Voluntary migration Involuntary
The migrant makes the decision to move.
Most migration is voluntary.
Involuntary
Forced migration in which the mover has no role in the decision-making process.
Slavery:
About 11 million African slaves were brought to the Americas between 1519 and 1867.
In 1860, there were close to 4 million slaves in the United States.
Refugees.
Military conscription.
Children of migrants.
Situations of divorce or separation.

22. 1 Types of Migration Type Characteristics International
Crossing a boundary; easier to control; regulated; difference in income; 2-3 million per year.
National
Between states or provinces; little control; employment opportunities; education; retirement.
Local
Within a city/region; change of income or lifestyle.
Voluntary
The outcome of a choice.
Involuntary
The outcome of a constraint.

23. 2 Selective Migration Context Age-specific migrations
Many migrations are selective.
Do not represent a cross section of the source population.
Differences:
Age.
Sex.
Level of education.
Age-specific migrations
One age group is dominant in a particular migration.
International migration tends to involve younger people.
The dominant group is between 25 and 45.
Studies and retirement are also age-specific migrations.

24. 2
Population Pyramid of Native and Foreign Born Population, United States, 2000 (in %)
Foreign Born
Native
Male
Female
Age
Male
Female
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000.

25. 2 Selective Migration Sex-specific migrations Males: Females:
Often dominant international migrations.
Once established, try to bring in a wife.
Females:
Often dominate rural to urban migrations.
Find jobs as domestic help or in new factories.
Send remittances back home.
Filipino females to Hong Kong and Japan.
“Mail-order bride”:
100,000 – 150,000 women a year advertise themselves for marriage.
About 10,000 available on the Internet at any time.
Mainly from Southeast Asia and Russia.
Come from places in which jobs and educational opportunities for women are scarce and wages are low.

26. 2 Selective Migration Education-specific migrations
May characterize some migrations (having or lacking of).
High level of education attained by most contemporary Asian immigrants to the USA and Canada.
Educational differences:
21% of all legal immigrants have at least 17 years of education.
8% for native-born Americans.
20% of all immigrants do not have 9 years of schooling.
Foreign students:
Often do not return to their home countries after their education.
Often cannot utilize what they have learned.
Since 1978 some 130,000 Chinese overseas students have returned while some 250,000 have remained abroad.
Most research-oriented graduate institutions have around 40% foreign students.

27. 2 Selective Migration Immigration and jobs
Related to the economic sector.
High level:
Filling high skilled position in science, technology and education.
Not enough highly trained personnel in the US.
Result in recruiting abroad (see brain drain).
Low level:
Filling low paid jobs (minimum wage) that most people do not want (agriculture and low level services).
Maintain low wages in low skilled jobs.
Possibility of an informal economy.

28. 3 Brain Drain Definition Receiving country
Relates to educationally specific selective migrations.
Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their population.
Can be both a benefit for the receiving country and a problem to the country of origin.
Receiving country
Getting highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away.
Promotes economic growth in strategic sectors: science and technology.
Not having to pay education and health costs.
30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.

29. 3 Brain Drain Country of origin
Education and health costs not paid back.
Losing potential leaders and talent:
Between 15 and 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the US.
Long term impact on economic growth.
Possibility of remittances.
Many brain drain migrants have skills which they can’t use at home:
The resources and technology may not be available there.
The specific labor market is not big enough.
May eventually come back with skills and connections:
Korea, Taiwan, China and India.

30. 3
Non US Citizens with Science and Engineering Doctorates in the United States, 1999
Source: OECD (2001). International mobility of human capital.

31. Likelihood of the Well-Educated to Stay, 19983
Likelihood of the Well-Educated to Stay, 1998
Source: The Economist, July 10th 1999
10 = most likely

32. Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living Abroad
Source: World Bank

33. H-1B Work Visas by Major Occupation, 1999-20003
H-1B Work Visas by Major Occupation,
Source: INS

34. H-1B Work Visas by Level of Education, 1999-20003
H-1B Work Visas by Level of Education,
Source: INS.

35. B Migration Theory 1. Push - Pull Theory 2. Economic Approaches
What are the major “push” and “pull” factors behind migration?
2. Economic Approaches
How can migration be explained from an economic perspective?
3. Behavioral Explanations to Migration
How can migration be explained from a human behavior perspective?

36. 1 Push - Pull Theory Context
Migrations as the response of individual decision-makers.
Negative or push factors in his current area of residence:
High unemployment and little opportunity.
Great poverty.
High crime.
Repression or a recent disaster (e.g., drought or earthquake).
Positive or pull factors in the potential destination:
High job availability and higher wages.
More exciting lifestyle.
Political freedom, greater safety and security, etc.

37. 1 Push - Pull Theory Intervening obstacles The problem of perception
Migration costs / transportation.
Immigration laws and policies of the destination country.
The problem of perception
Assumes rational behavior on the part of the migrant:
Not necessarily true since a migrant cannot be truly informed.
The key word is perception of the pull factors.
Information is never complete.
Decisions are made based upon perceptions of reality at the destination relative to the known reality at the source.
When the migrant’s information is highly inaccurate, a return migration may be one possible outcome.

38. 1 Push - Pull Theory Intervening obstacles Origin Destination
Source: adapted from Peters and Larkin (1999), p. 199.
Origin
Destination
Positive factors
Neutral factors
Negative factors

39. 1
Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding to Say in the United States, 1997
Source: US China Embassy.

40. 1
Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding to Return to China, 1997
Source: US China Embassy.

41. 2 Economic Approaches Labor mobility Remittances Migration
The primary issue behind migration.
Notably the case at the national level.
Equilibrate the geographical differences in labor supply and demand.
Accelerated with the globalization of the economy.
Remittances
Capital sent by workers working abroad to their family / relatives at home.
$62 billion in 1999:
$16 billion each year goes out of Saudi Arabia as remittances.
2nd most important most important source of income for Mexico (after oil and before tourism); 16.6 billion in 2004.
Labor shortages
High wages
Migration
Surplus labor
Low wages

42. Worker’s Remittances, top 10 countries, 1995-1999 (in $US)2
Worker’s Remittances, top 10 countries, (in $US)
Source: United Nations.

43. Behavioral Explanations of Migration3
Behavioral Explanations of Migration
Life-cycle factors
Migration linked to events in one’s life.
People in their 30s are the most mobile.
Education, career, and family are being established.
Later in life, flexibility decreases and inertia increases.
Retirement often brings a major change.
Large migrations of retired people have been occurring in the direction of amenities-oriented areas. 25 50 75
Stay with parents
Move to college
First job
Marriage
Promotion
Children leave home
Retirement
Loss of mobility

44. Behavioral Explanations of Migration3
Behavioral Explanations of Migration
Migrants as risk-takers
Why, among a population in the same environment (the same push factors), some leave and some stay?
Migrants tend to be greater risk-takers, more motivated, more innovative and more adaptable.
Non-migrants tend to be more cautious and conservative.
Can be used to explain the relative dynamism in some societies, like the USA since the 1800s.
Summary
No one theory of migration can adequately explain this huge worldwide phenomenon.
Each brings a contribution to the understanding of why people move.

45. C Refugees 1. Definition 2. Contemporary Evolution
What is a refugee and how one qualifies for this status?
2. Contemporary Evolution
How the refugee situation has evolved in time?

46. 1 Definition The United Nations definition
The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees:
“..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.…” .
The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee.
There are no international agreements to protect people who cross boundaries for their economic survival.

47. 1 Definition Conditions to qualify for refugee status
Political persecution must be demonstrated.
An international boundary must be crossed:
Domestically displaced persons do not qualify.
Protection by one’s government is not seen an alternative:
The government may be the persecutor.
Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.

48. 1 Definition Environmental and economic refugees
People who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of what are primarily environmental or economic factors of unusual scope.
Sources:
Natural disaster.
Human alterations to the environment; climate change.
Contamination (pollution) of the environment.
Lack of development and opportunities.
Render continued residence in that particular location unsustainable.
Mozambique, February 2000:
Floods made 1 million people homeless.
Destroyed agricultural land and cattle.

49. Contemporary Evolution2
Contemporary Evolution
Origins
The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who left France to avoid religious persecution.
About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century.
Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the English colonies in North America.
Pre-WW II and during WW II
Primarily political elites:
Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them.
Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to them.
War-driven refugees:
About 12% of the European population displaced.
Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.

50. Contemporary Evolution2
Contemporary Evolution
Post WW II
Change in the patterns of refugee flows:
The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world.
De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean:
Political unrest in many newly independent states.
Multi-ethnic nature of those states.
The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans.
The Cold War also increased political instability in a number of countries.
Political instability in Latin America increased due to the vast social inequalities existing in that region.
New kind of refugee flow:
Large and of long (or permanent) duration.

51. Contemporary Evolution2
Contemporary Evolution
Current issues
Refugees are a controversial issue:
Especially in the developed world.
Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status.
Less than 20% for the European Union.
Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted.
Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal status.
1996 amendment to US immigration law:
Enforcing detention for all refugees entering the United States.
INS can summarily deport those who arrive without valid travel documents.
4,000 detained on any given day.

52. Refugees per Continent, 1981-2003
Source: Worldwatch Institute. United Nations.

53. Origins and Destinations of Refugees, 2003
Source: UNHCR.
Red = Origin
Green = Destination

54. Main Asylum Countries and Internally Displaced Population, 2001
Refugee population includes asylum seekers (refugee status pending). Internally displaced include forced migrants (Russia)
Source: UNHCR, 2002

55. D Urbanization 1. Context and Issues
What is urbanization and what are its causes?
2. Why People Move to Urban Areas?
3. Megacities and Urban Regions
What is the current state of global urbanization?
4. Shantytowns
What characterizes the prevailing urban environment?

56. 1 Context and Issues What is urbanization? Population growth
(Natural increase or
migration)
What is urbanization?
Urbanization is the agglomeration of population in cities:
Growth of the proportion of the population living in cities.
Demographic process:
Urban population growth (natural increase or migration).
Infrastructure process:
Expansion of urban infrastructures and land use.
Economic process:
Creation of secondary, tertiary and quaternary sectors.
Creates a society where values and lifestyles are urban.
Urban expansion

57. 1 Context and Issues Causes of urbanization Historical: Social:
Defense.
Trade routes.
Social:
Increased social interactions.
Institutions representing a society (government, religion & education).
Economic:
Linked with agricultural surpluses.
Increased economic opportunities.
Access to labor.
Specialization.
Economies of scale and of agglomeration.

58. 1 Context and Issues The urban explosion
Urban population growth is the most important change in population geography.
About 50% of the global population, 3 billions, lives in cities.
Almost all the population growth between 2000 and 2030 will occur in cities.
By 2050, 6.2 billion people will live in cities, more than the current (2000) population.
Much of this growth will come in the world’s poorest countries.

59. 1
World Urban Population, with Projections to 2020 (in billions)
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision.

60. Annual Growth of World and Urban Populations, 1950-2030 (in millions)
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects (1999).

61. 1 Context and Issues Developed countries Developing countries
Developed countries are already urbanized.
Passed through the rural - urban migration process.
Concurrent with demographic transition and industrialization.
Developing countries
Going through a major phase of urbanization.
Urbanization mainly occurs in developing countries:
Will account for 93% of the 2 billion increase in the global urban population between 2000 and 2030.
Latin America and East Asia is farthest along.
The rest of Asia is a little further behind.
Africa is urbanizing more slowly than the other world regions.

62. Stages of Urbanization1
Stages of Urbanization
Initial Stage
Transition Stage
Terminal Stage
100
Demographic transition
Rural to urban migration
Developed countries 80
Rural
Society
Developing
countries
Urban
Society 60
Urban Population
Source: Adapted from Peters and Larkin, 1999. 40
Least developed
countries 20
Urbanization
Time

63. Percentage of Population Urban, 20001
Percentage of Population Urban, 2000

64. 1
% of Urban Population,
Source: United Nations Population Program.

65. Urban Population, 1950-2030 (in millions)
Source: United Nations Population Program.

66. Why People Move to Urban Areas?2
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
Context
50 million new urbanites each year.
1 million new urbanites each week.
About 155,000 new urbanites each day.
About 75,000 rural poor migrate to cities each day.
Major changes in the developing world.
Migration:
Makes a significant contribution to the growth of urban areas.
Accounts for between 40% and 60% of annual urban population growth in the developing world.
Huge rural-to-urban migration potential in areas having a large rural population.

67. Why People Move to Urban Areas?2
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
Push-Pull considerations
Both are affecting rural-urban migrations.
“Pull” of the cities may determine the destination.
Migrants are pulled toward cities:
Prospect of jobs and higher incomes.
Most early urbanization was the result of pull considerations.
Pushed out of rural areas:
“Push” factors predominate as the motivation to move.
Poverty, lack of land, declining agricultural work, war, and famine.
Play more importance today than push considerations.

68. Push - Pull Factors for Urbanization in the Third World2
Push - Pull Factors for Urbanization in the Third World
PUSH
PULL
Rural
Urban
Instability
Rural structures
Low employment
Demographic pressure
Employment market
Better services
Low barriers
Modernity
Migration
18-35

69. Why People Move to Urban Areas?2
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
Factor
Condition
Issues
Instability / Disasters / Wars / Famines
Push
Creation of refugees. Cities as safe heavens.
Expectation of jobs
Pull
Higher wages but higher living costs. Large labor markets. Informal sector dominant.
Deterioration of rural life
Demographic growth. Land tenure (landless peasants). Mechanization (surplus labor).
Transportation
Intervening opportunities
Increased mobility. Lower costs. Construction of roads and rails. Access to rural markets.
More and better services
Better schools and health services. Access to water and electricity. Overcrowding and pollution.

70. 2
% of the Population Having Access to Public Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990

71. Why People Move to Urban Areas?2
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
Urbanization and economic survival
Decision to move to an urban area:
Part of a complex survival strategy.
Families minimize risk by placing members in different labor markets.
Largest labor market maximizing the chances of employment and survival.
Cities are the largest labor markets.
Favelas (squatter settlements) of Rio de Janeiro:
Cannot be understood without reference to the latifundia land system in rural Brazil.
Characterized by large landholdings owned by a limited elite.
Peasants as contract labor with no ownership.

72. Megacities and Urban Regions3
Megacities and Urban Regions
Concentration
An increasing share of the global population lives in megacities:
Megacities (over one million).
Supercities (over 4 million).
Supergiants (over 10 million).
First modern megacity, Beijing 1770.
1900:
233 million urbanites (14% of the global population); 20 megacities.
1950:
83 megacities.
34 cities in developing countries.
2000:
3 billion urbanites (50%); 433 megacities.
All new millionaire cities are in developing countries.
11 of the 15 largest cities are in developing countries.

73. Number of Cities with Populations of 5 Million or More, 1950-20003
Number of Cities with Populations of 5 Million or More,
Source: Worldwatch Institute.

74. Cities of more than 8 million, 1950-20003
Cities of more than 8 million,
1950
1970
1990
2000
Developed countries
New York
London
Tokyo
Los Angeles
Paris
Moscow
Osaka
Developing countries
None
Shanghai
Mexico City
Buenos Aires
Beijing
Sao Paulo
Calcutta
Bombay
Seoul
Rio de Janeiro
Tianjin
Jakarta
Cairo
Delhi
Manila
Lagos
Dhaka
Karachi
Bangkok
Istanbul
Teheran
Bangalore
Lima

75. Cities with more than 5 Million People, 20003
Cities with more than 5 Million People, 2000

76. The 15 Largest cities in the world, 2000-20153
The 15 Largest cities in the world,
Source: United Nations.

77. 4
Shantytowns
Context
Many of the new urban dwellers, particularly women and their children, are among the poorest people in the world.
Difficulty to access housing:
Economic costs.
Availability.
100 million people are homeless.
928 million live in precarious housing conditions (slums).
Shantytowns; informal habitat or squatter housing:
Favelas (Brazil).
Pueblos jovenes (Young towns).
Asentamiento irregulares (Irregular settlements).
Villas miserias (Miserable villages, Argentina).
Jughi Jopri (India).

78. 4 Shantytowns Definition
Dwellings are built by the current or original occupant:
Rudimentary construction materials.
Did not receive a construction permit.
Do not follow norms in terms of housing and sanitation.
Inhabitants have no legal title to the land:
Most are located in areas being declared inhabitable.
Own by the municipality.
Abandoned private land.
Exploiting a legal vacuum of land ownership.
Lack of urban services:
Generally not serviced by public utilities such as tap water, electricity, roads, public transportation and sewage.

79. 4
Shantytowns
Setting
Shantytowns are constructed over the least desirable land.
Put the population at risk.
Caracas, Venezuela, 1999:
Mudslides killed 50,000 inhabitants.
Created 400,000 homeless.
500,000 of the 6 million inhabitants were considered at high risk.
Bhopal, India, 1984:
Union Carbide release of toxic cocktail.
500,000 people exposed.
16,000 deaths.
Disamenity
Disamenity
CBD
Bophal, India: 1984, Union Carbide release of toxic cocktail. 500,000 people exposed. 16,000 deaths.
Commercial/Industrial
Elite Residential Sector
Zone of Maturity
Zone in Situ Accretion
Zone of peripheral
squatter settlements

80. 4 Shantytowns Habitat Informal settlements:
Perhaps the most visible sign of widespread poverty.
About 25% of the surface of cities in developing countries is covered by shantytowns.
30-60% of the urban population.
Emerged in all Third World cities:
Following the demographic explosion.
Now the norm more than the exception.
Incapacity of private and public instances:
Provide low price housing for the majority of the population.
The State more concerned about providing housing for its public servants and its middle class.
Housing crisis that could not be solved.

81. 4 Shantytowns Growth process Is there any hope?
People expelled from gentrification in downtown areas.
Inflow of people expelled from poverty in rural areas.
In several cases, rightful owners of land have divided it in small lots and sold it in order to have a higher profit.
In some instances, land was illegally sold to dwellers being framed.
Is there any hope?
Housing has always been a priority for investment.
As the population of Third World cities gets higher incomes, the priority will be improving their housing conditions.
On the long run, shantytowns are likely to disappear (or at least become less significant).

82. Shantytowns as Share of the Total Population4
Shantytowns as Share of the Total Population
Source: World Population Crisis Committee, Washington