1. RE and the Climate Change Challenge: Can RE Technologies Deliver? Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace International

2. Defining the Challenge UNFCCC Article 2 UNFCCC Article 2 Millions at Risk Millions at Risk

3. UNFCCC Article 2: Objective The ultimate objective of this Convention is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system …in time to… allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

4. Additional millions at risk in 2050s

5. Additional millions at risk in 2080s

6. That’s Quite A Challenge Can RE technologies deliver ALL of that? NO!

7. What RE can’t do  Cope with IEA projected increases in electricity consumption;  Reverse global deforestation trends;  Energy efficiency MUST play a major role;  Unsustainable patterns of consumption and production must be transformed; production must be transformed;  Transport

8. What RE technologies CAN Do  By the end of the century, renewables have the potential to provide nearly 100% of our energy needs…indeed they must if we are to meet the climate change challenge.  Existing RE technologies can provide a significant share of global electricity demand by 2020, and a very large share by 2040.

9. Working with the Industry  Greenpeace working with industry? European Wind Energy Association European PV Industry Association Solar Thermal Power Industry Association And others

10. Wind Force 12  Wind Force 10 to Wind Force 12  27 fold increase in a decade

11. WHAT CAN WIND DELIVER? 2020 : 11 % of world electricity 2040 : 22 % of world electricity

12. WIND FUTURES Global Wind Power will be equivalent to reducing...

14. SOLAR GENERATION  Enormous technical potential, but expensive so far, although costs are coming down;  Growth is fast, but starting from a very small base.

15. WHAT CAN SOLAR pv DELIVER? 2020 : 1 % of global demand 2040 : 26 % of global demand

16. SOLAR THERMAL  New report  Feasibility study like WF12 and SG  Working with BOTH European and US industry associations  Results

17. Solar Thermal Can Deliver:

18. Three Technologies Today20202040 Wind64.5 (twh) 3021 (twh) 12%8100 (twh) 22% Solar pvCa. 2,5 TWh 276 (twh) 1%9113 (twh) 26% Solar Thermal Ca. 0,7 TWh 43 (twh).16%3174 (twh) 5% Total3340 (twh) 13%20,387 (twh) 53%

19. Next (for us)  Geothermal: technical potential w/existing technology = 1 X current global energy demand  ‘Modern Biomass’: technical potential w/existing technology = 40% of current global energy demand;  Marine Energy: technical potential w/existing technology = 5% of current global energy demand

20. Meeting the Challenge?  Role for government, industry and civil society  Growth rates achievable similar to other energy technologies (Fax machines, PC, mobile phones, etc).

21. An Important Step on The Road to Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change and A Clean Energy Future

22. Steven Guilbeault Greenpeace International G www.greenpeace.org