1. Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change Jennifer L. Morgan April 24, 2006

2. 2.2. The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere Some solar radiation is reflected by the Earth and the atmosphere Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere.

3. 3.3. Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared with year 1750

4. 4.4. Ultimate objective to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system... within a time frame sufficient to: allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change ensure that food production is not threatened enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner Article 2 of the Climate Convention

5. 5.5. Climate Change Impacts

6. 6.6. Part 1 Danger Threshold 2°C

7. 7.7. Context: Reasons for Concern (IPCC TAR WGII)

8. 8.8.

9. 9.9.

10. 10. Broadleaf tree cover (gridbox fraction) in coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

11. 11. 2005:All-Time Record Year for Hurricanes 26 Tropical Storms in the Caribbean 14 Hurricanes (≥117 km/h) 5 Events in Categories IV & V „Wilma“ Generating Lowest-Ever Air Pressure (882 mb) Highest-Ever Gale Speeds (340 km/h) „Vince“ and „Delta“ Reaching Europe

12. 12. “Millions at Risk”

13. 13. Earth System Achilles Heels

14. 14. Part 1 What CO 2 concentration corresponds to 2°C?

15. 15. Risk of overshooting 2°C (stabilisation)

16. 16. The way to get to low stab. levels: peaking

17. 17. Part 2 What are the necessary global emission reductions?

18. 18. Emissions relative to 1990

19. 19. The Effect of Delay (same risk of overshooting)

20. 20. Sir David King “Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option” (Science, 9 January 2004)

21. 21. For peaking at 475ppm and stabilization at 400ppm: –global GHG emissions have to be reduced by ~50% below 1990 levels by 2050. Industrialised country emissions in 2020 will need to be reduced by about 15-30% below 1990 levels for 400-450 ppm Co2 Eq Participation of the USA and advanced developing countries in reduction commitments well before 2025 is needed Emissions reductions required

22. 22. Contribution of sectors 2002-2030

23. 23. Total emissions (Source: EVOC model, Triptych approach) 450 CO 2 case, A1B scenario Until 2010: Annex I reaches Kyoto targets Non-Annex I follows reference

24. 24. Results towards 450 ppmv CO 2 Towards 450 ppmv CO 2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO 2 eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO 2 GHG per capita

25. 25. Sir David King Solutions exist but are not being implemented at needed rate or scale –Energy efficiency has tremendous potential across sectors –Renewable energy –CCS? Decouple GDP growth and energy intensity Money going into wrong places, have to turn the tide Way forward?

26. 26. Sir David King Assess what this means for our conservation priorities in WWF What does climate change mean for my ecoregion? How to buy some time while we all work together to get emissions down? Way forward?

27. 27. WWF has the heart and the brains to make a huge difference We need the will, the capacity and the courage to act together