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2. 2 ADMIN NOTES Mid-Term Results - - Part III, Balkans

3. 3 SAMPLES OF BEHAVIOR - - - Identify the three vital interest the United States and its NATO allies had at stake during the Kosovo crisis. - - - State the five NATO objectives established in April 1999. - - - State the three key strategic objectives of Operation ALLIED FORCE. - - - Identify the key lessons learned by the US military in Operation ALLIED FORCE.

4. 4 The Balkans: A Brief History - After World War II, monarchy abolished; Communist Party leader Tito proclaimed the country the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia, with himself as prime minister - Eliminating opposition, the Tito gov’t executed Mihajlovic in 1946 - Tito died in 1980, and the fragility of the federation he ruled quickly became apparent Tito

5. 5 Three ethnic groups fell into conflict Serbs—Dominant in Yugoslavia's politics and army, orthodox Christianity makes them natural allies of Russia Croats—Roman Catholics, closer to the West than Serbs and exposed to Western influences Muslims—Living mainly in ethnically mixed towns and cities in Bosnia-Herzegovina

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7. 7 The Crisis in Bosnia  28 Feb 1994, NATO aircraft shot down four warplanes violating the no-fly zone over Bosnia-Herzegovina This was the first military engagement ever undertaken by the Alliance   Oct 1992, UN Security Council Resolution 781 established a no-fly zone over Bosnia-Herzegovina   Operation Deny Flight Enforced the no-fly zone Provided close air support to UN troops Conducted approved air strikes under a dual-key command arrangement with the UN

8. 8 The Crisis in Bosnia  NATO objectives Bosnian Serb compliance to cease attacks on Sarajevo and other safe areas Withdrawal of Bosnian Serb heavy weapons from the total exclusion zone around Sarajevo Complete freedom of movement for UN Forces and personnel, and nongovernment officials Unrestricted use of Sarajevo airport

9. 9 The Crisis in Bosnia  NATO missions of Operation Deny Flight To conduct aerial monitoring and enforce compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 816 To provide close air support for UN troops on the ground at the request of, and controlled by, UN forces To conduct approved air strikes against designated targets threatening the security of the UN-declared safe areas

10. 10 The Crisis in Bosnia  Operation Deny Flight lasted from 12 Apr 1993 to 20 Dec 1995 Almost 100,000 sorties flown  A formal closure ceremony was held in Vicenza, Italy on 21 Dec 1995 Forces associated with Operation Deny Flight were then transferred to Operation Decisive Endeavor as part of the overall NATO operation Joint Endeavor.

11. 11 The Crisis in Bosnia Lessons Learned  Lack of doctrine  Tactical air and space power problems  Bases weren’t large enough to accept the contingency surges  Coalition/Joint problems  Technological problems

12. 12 KOSOVO

13. 13 Kosovo Crisis  Kosovo lies in southern Serbia and has a mixed population, the majority of which are ethnic Albanians (Muslims)  Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic altered the status of the region, removing its autonomy and bringing it under the direct control of Belgrade, the Serbian capital  The Kosovar Albanians strenuously opposed the move

14. 14 United States and NATO Interests at stake  Serb aggression threatened peace throughout the Balkans and the stability of NATO’s SE region  Belgrade’s repression in Kosovo created a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions  President Milosevic’s conduct directly challenged the credibility of NATO

15. 15 NATO Action  After the failure of repeated international diplomatic efforts since the spring of 1998 to peacefully resolve the conflict in Kosovo  North Atlantic Council decided on 23 March 1999 to authorize NATO air strikes  Aimed at strategic targets in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to end the repression of Kosovar Albanians by the Yugoslav government

16. 16 NATO’s Objectives  A stop to all military action and the immediate ending of violence and repression  The withdrawal from Kosovo of the military, police, and paramilitary forces  The stationing in Kosovo of an international military presence

17. 17 NATO’s Objectives (cont’d)  The unconditional and safe return of all refugees and displaced persons  Establish political framework agreement for Kosovo in conformity with international law

18. 18 Military Objective “Degrade and damage the military and security structure President Milosevic has used to depopulate and destroy the Albanian majority in Kosovo.” William Cohen, SECDEF 15 April 1999

19. 19 NATO Strategic Objectives  Demonstrate the seriousness of their opposition to Belgrade’s aggression in the Balkans  Deter Milosevic’s attacks on helpless civilians, and reverse ethnic cleansing  Damage Serbia’s capacity to wage war against Kosovo

20. 20 Lessons Learned on Kosovo War Objectives US Grand Strategy  Maintain a peaceful, prosperous US-led Europe  Convince NATO to transition from old Cold War common defense against external threats to new Continental security coalition  Persuade NATO to acquire means and will to conduct out of area military ops European Strategy  Maintain a peaceful, prosperous, and independent Europe  Prevent spillover into Albania and Macedonia, then to Greece and Turkey  Maintain NATO relationship with Russia and give it a role in helping end the crisis  Demonstrate European unity Kosovo War Aims   Stop the Serbian slaughter and expulsion of ethnic Albanians   Remove Milosevic from power   Accomplish the above with minimal collateral damage and NATO casualties Common Effort Concealed Widely Differing Objectives

21. 21 Lessons Learned by US Military  United States air refuelers were stretched thin during the operation  Force structure numbers and resources were inadequate for current level of commitments (all services); support and training as important to victory as strike  Older platforms with smart weapons may be seen as good enough; smart weapons may be better than smart platforms  Need the right force structure for the future  C4ISR is currently the weakest link in joint and coalition ops  On the brink of another “hollow force”

22. 22 Political Lessons Learned by Europeans  Militarily, Europe remains dependent on Americans Best technology, weapons, and platforms “Made in USA.” Politicians unwilling to pay the cost of matching unique US capabilities  United States cannot always be counted on to serve the Alliance’s interests US focus shifted with opinion polls Fear US commitment could falter if US forces take heavy casualties  European Union can provide diplomatic muscle (Martti Ahtisaari saves the day); many foreign policy interests are similar among EU Nations Refugee issue Humanitarian (ethnic cleansing) Threat of rising Islamic fundamentalism Need to build external identity  Europe can overcome internal diversity to maintain cohesion German Luftwaffe conducted first combat missions since 1945 Greece provided logistical support despite popular opposition Italy and France (which have Communist ministers) offered air bases

23. 23 Impact of Kosovo Lessons Learned on Future DOD Budget Trends  No DOD/Allied spending surge like post-Desert Storm  International defense market continues to shrink  Readiness and retention will increasingly consume $$$$ for modernization  Inevitable tax cut legislation will further erode DOD budgets  Services must eventually deal with the bow wave  Old platforms with smart weapons were good enough  Congress may balk at big bills for new platforms (JSF, F-22, CVX, DD-21)  Support Forces will need big $$$$ too “We have to make a trade between smart weapons and platforms...We need to encourage the services to concentrate more on smart weapons.” Jacques Gansler “We have to make a trade between smart weapons and platforms...We need to encourage the services to concentrate more on smart weapons.” Jacques Gansler

24. 24 Summary  Background to the Gulf War Conflict  Iraqi Threat  Air Defense Threat  The Plan of Attack  Concept of Operations  Five Strategic Rings  Target Systems  Campaign Overview  Video Clip - Beyond the Wild Blue

25. 25 Summary  Operation PROVIDE COMFORT/NORTHERN WATCH Background to conflict and lessons learned  Operation SOUTHERN WATCH Background to conflict and lessons learned  Operation PROVIDE RELIEF/RESTORE HOPE Background to conflict and lessons learned  History of the Balkans Background Ethnic Groups

26. 26 Summary  Operation DENY FLIGHT Background to conflict and lessons learned  Operation ALLIED FORCE Background to conflict NATO actions Operation ALLIED FORCE begins  Operation ALLIED FORCE Lessons learned by US Military Political lessons learned Impact of lessons learned on future DOD budget  CFD Review

27. 27 Next Week - Air and Space Power Today: The Global War on Terrorism -- Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), Enduring Freedom, Iraqi Freedom and GWOT Read Chapter 21