Presentation on theme: "Islamic Fundamentalist Terrorism"— Presentation transcript:
1Islamic Fundamentalist Terrorism “If there is a single power the West underestimates, it is the power of collective hatred.” Ralph Peters, 1999.
2For More info see…Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror, Michael ScheuerThrough Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America, Revised Edition, Michael ScheuerThe Trouble With Islam Today, Irshad ManjiThe 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on the Terrorist Attacks Upon the United StatesThe Great War for Civilisation: The Conquest of the Middle East, Robert FiskThe Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11, Lawrence Wright
3TerrorismThe unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence to intimidate or coerce societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives (FBI)Potentially politically loaded termOne person’s “terrorist” is another’s “freedom fighter”Terrorism most clearly defined by two characteristicsCombatants do not represent a stateCombatants deliberately target civiliansTerrorism & terrorists violate int’l rules of war
4Popular Beliefs and Misconceptions about Terrorism There is a widespread, but probably incorrectly belief that:Terrorists are psychotic or mentally illTerrorists suffer personality disordersTerrorist violence is the result of personal frustration, or economic deprivationTerrorist violence is a reaction to personal grievances, including personal humiliation, anger, or shameTerrorists are victims of physical or psychological coercion from mastermind recruiters ("brainwashing")
5Terrorism as Strategy Terrorism as weapon in a strategy Terrorist attacks = form of strategic communicationTerrorism is not newTerrorism is not merely religious: 1980 Bologna, Munich attacks; LTTE (Sri Lanka)“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA BomberFirst and foremost, there is general agreement that terrorism is a means to an end, a weapon used as part of a strategy
6The Tactics of Terrorism Six tactics of terrorism:Bombing (most common)HijackingArsonAssaultKidnappingHostage TakingWeapons of mass destruction?
7Effects of Terror Economy Each and every individual Irrational in natureDecreases any feeling of securityDrains resourcesPlaces whole country on alert:?overreaction?False sense of security or irrelevant
8Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strengthCoercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or governmentIntimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from actingProvocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government.
9Terrorism Is TheatreAs stated by Brian Jenkins - terrorism expert - terrorist acts are often deliberately spectacular, designed to rattle and influence a wide audience, beyond the victims of the violence itself.
10Television and Terrorism: A Cozy Relationship Over the years, several studies have pointed to the close relationship between terrorism and televisionThe purpose of television newsNews programming provides information, but it is also designed to keep audiences watchingOne of the purposes is to keep the audience primed with emotion and excitementTerrorism is perfect for this scenario because it is so dramatic
11Television and Terrorism: A Cozy Relationship Basic elements of television dramaViewers are encouraged to “stay tuned”The station provides an expert interpreterThe reports give the illusion that somehow the audience and be in control of the situation
12The Media as a Force Multiplier American media and Arab mediaAmerica broadcasted its versions of truth both domestically and abroad, and American news has always been self-absorbedIn the 1990s a new Arab television network, al Jazeera, began broadcasting news from an Arab perspective
13The Media as a Force Multiplier Terrorists use the media to reach audiences in a new wayAt first, terrorists reached audiences with dramaAs time went on, terrorists realized that hostage dramas were made for televisionIf terrorists could successfully manipulate the situation, they could portray both hostages and themselves as victims while police and military forces appeared to be aggressors
14The Media as a Force Multiplier The Internet as a force multiplierThe Internet is one of the most important force multipliers easily available to terroristsThe Internet is a powerful tool for opposition forces in authoritarian regimesTerrorists run their own websites, sometimes hack into exiting sites to broadcast propaganda videos, and also imbed pixels in legitimate websites to transmit secret communications
15Security Forces vs. Reporters Security forces conflicting with the mediaTerrorists want to use the media as a psychological weapon, while governments seek to harness the power of the media for social controlLaw enforcement and military goals conflict directly with the needs of the mediaOfficially, police and security forces recognize the media’s right to report information, but they develop elaborate plans to control reporting
16Security Forces vs. Reporters Points of views about terrorism and the mediaSome members and supporters of the press see the media as a quasi-constitutional force keeping the government in checkSome want to limit press coverage during terrorist eventsThe media may exploit terrorism, but they rarely convey messages favorable to terrorism
17Security Forces vs. Reporters Terrorist theaterThe media is filled with action and it is entertainingHowever, research suggests that the coverage of terrorism is not helpful to terrorist groupsReporting terrorist events increases the public’s knowledge about terrorism, but builds little sympathy for terrorists
18Does Reporting Make Terrorism Contagious? The Internet and the contagion effectContagion is magnified when rumors are spread through s, and websitesCopycat effectThe greatest proponents of contagion theory argue that media reporting, especially television, leads to a copycat effectThe reason is that media reports encourage people to transform dark thoughts into reality
19Censorship DebatesThree choices when it comes to freedom of the press and terrorismTo assume a laissez-faire, or hands-off, attitudeCensorshipSelf-regulation
20Terrorism is a Political Act Creates extreme fear and anxiety in a target group larger than immediate victims“Extra-normal violence in a symbolic act”Specific victims have no particular significance to terrorist
21Terrorism is Not Irrational Terrorist use logic that linksGoalsObjectivesStrategy
23State Sponsored Terrorism Hizballah receives backing and assistance from the Governments of Iran and Syria.IRAN shaped Hizballah’s ideology, gave it political backing and helped build its operational capabilities. Iran currently continues to support Hizballah terrorism, by providing it with training and weapons, financial aid and assistance for carrying out terror attacks.SYRIA supports and trains Hizballah and allows it to build its infrastructure under Syrian auspices. Hizballah is used as a political tool against Israel by the Syrian president.LEBANON provides a territorial base where Hizballah can freely operate and advance its terrorist infrastructure.
25Hizballah’s Arsenal of Weapons Type of WeaponsQuantity(estimate)RangeTargetMortars82 mm120 mm160 mmDozens of mortars, thousands of mortar bombs3000 m5700 m8000 mIsraeli towns and citiesRocket LaunchersFAJR 3FAJR 5107 mm122 mmSeveral dozenUnknown launchers; thousands of rockets43 km75 km8.3 kmLong-range rocket: 20.4 kmShort-range rocket: 11 kmInto the Heart of IsraelRecoilless gunsDozens1300 m (est.)militaryArtillery Guns130 mm155 mmDozens of guns;Thousands of shells11.8 km – 24 km2.75 km18kmIsraeli civilians and townsAntitank MissilesSAGGERMillanFagotTowSeveral hundred missiles of all typesmmA mB mTanksAntiaircraftSA-714.5 mm23 mm57mmA few of each kindkmmmmAircraft
26Terrorism is a Political Act A weapon of psychological purposesPremeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnation or clandestine agents usually intended to influence an audience
27Terrorism in the USAThe first incident of antifederal behavior came shortly after the American Revolutionary War1791- The Whiskey RebellionThe Civil WarSoutherners were fighting to keep the power of local governmentKKK-Purpose: to intimidate supporters of ReconstructionAbortion Clinics
28Ecoterrorism in the US Earth Liberation Front (ELF) ELF migrated from Europe to the United StatesThe alliance has been responsible for more than six hundred criminal acts since 1996Its tactics include sabotage, tree spiking, property damage, intimidation, and arson
29Ecoterrorism, Animal Rights, and Genetic Engineering Ecoterrorism todayMost violence associated with ecoterrorism has taken place in the American WestFrom , damages total $28.8 millionELF activities have increased each year since 1999Ecoterrorists are uncompromising, illogical extremists just like their right-wing counterparts; They use ecology as a surrogate religion
30Murrah Federal Building Oklahoma City 25 June 1994 168 Dead490 Injured
31Terrorist tactics have been admired in the past… American RevolutionWas the Boston Tea Party an act of terrorism?????What about the French Resistance that fought against Germany in WWII?Russian and Spanish Guerrilla warfare vs. Napoleon????Terrorist or Freedom Fighter????Are we Terrorists?Bombing of other countries when they do something we don’t like?IraqLibyaPanama
32Why Terrorism??? Terrorism and guerrilla warfare Ability to compete with “superpowers”Legitimate form of warfare?Applicability of “Laws of war” (legitimate nations at a disadvantage?)Terrorists have advantage of surprise and initiativeWhat methods may be used to combat terrorist/guerrilla attacks? Advantages and disadvantages of each (loss of innocent life, collateral damage, etc.)
33Why Terrorism? Because It Works The anthrax case:3 teaspoons worth of anthrax$27,500,000 to clean up Senate Office Building$300,000,000 to clean up postal facilitiesTwo pounds of anthrax would saturate all of Manhattan.9/ Hijackers killed thousands and caused Trillions of dollars in economic damage.
34Terrorist Profiles: Three Views Hacker one of first criminal profilersHacker’s three types of terrorists:CriminalsJoin terrorist groups for payoff or vengeanceCraziesJoin terrorist groups for thrills of lifestyleCrusadersPeople who believe deeply in a cause
35Creating Terrorist Organizations Pyramid Organization:Support is most common job in terrorist groupsFraser and Fulton’s hierarchy of terrorist group:Smallest group at the top is responsible for commandSecond level is active cadre—people who carry out organization’s missionThird level is most important: active supportersFourth level is passive supporters; largest group
36Terrorism Support Base Actual terroristsActive supportersPassive supportersSympathizers
37Suicide Terror Attacks are . . . inexpensive and effective; extremely favorable per-casualty cost benefits for the terroristsless complicated and compromising – no escape plan needed, and success means no assailant to capture and interrogateperhaps the ultimate “smart bomb” – this “weapon” can cleverly disguise itself, use various modes of deception, and effect last minute changes in timing, access, and targeta strategic communication device – successful attacks are virtually assured media coverageeffective because the weaker opponent acts as coercer and the stronger actor is the targetKey difference from other attacks: The target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage
38Suicide Terrorism: Where? Three types of attacks are most likely to occur:High value, symbolic targets involving mass casualtiesImportant government buildings, installations, or landmarksMajor means of personal or commercial transportationHigh value, symbolic targets against specific personsPolitical assassinations (e.g., head of state, regional governor, etc.)Deliberately lethal attacks targeting the publicBus, train, subway bombings; attacks on shopping malls, cinemas, sports stadiums, public gathering spaces
39Suicide TerrorismThe use of suicide terrorism as a tactic has changed the nature of terrorism and the war in Iraq.In most cases, the use of suicide terrorism has tended to improve the success of terrorists and frustrated their more capable, better-resourced enemies (i.e., US, EU)This analysis is based on Robert Pape’s article in the Aug American Political Science Review (vol. 97, no. 3, )
40Suicide TerrorismSuicide terrorism was seldom used but not unknown before 1980The 1983 attack on the US Marine barracks in Lebanon was a spectacular early use of this tacticSince that time its use has risen sharply
41Suicide Terrorism Suicide Attacks Against Israel Suicide Attacks Thwarted by Israeli Forces200042001355620026017120032620915367200559620062187Source: Jewish Virtual Library.org
42Types of Suicide Terrorism Suicide attack on foot, explosive belt -- numerous IraqAttempted suicide attack with a plane as target -- Richard Reid on American Airlines Flight 63Suicide car bomb -- numerous IraqSuicide attack by a boat with explosives -- USS Cole bombingSuicide attack by a submarine with explosives (human-steered torpedo) -- Kaiten, used by Japan in WWIISuicide attack by a plane with explosives -- kamikazeSuicide attack by a hijacked plane with fuel -- 9/11Suicide attack by diverting a bus to an abyss -- Tel Aviv Jerusalem bus MassacreSuicide attack with guns -- Kashmiri insurgents on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 killing 15 people.
43Profile of Suicide Terrorists The original descriptions of characteristics of suicide terrorists pointed to depressed, isolated, uneducated, embittered loners carrying out attacks, motivated by a sense of powerlessnessThe rising numbers of suicide attacks has made this profile obsoleteSuicide terrorists may be young, middle class, well-educated, femaleReligion seems to be a significant motivation in many cases, but not all (e.g., Tamil Tigers, Sri Lanka)
445 Principles of Suicide Terrorism Suicide terrorism is strategic-- Groups announce their goals and cease attacks when those goals are metDesigned to coerce modern democracies, usually over territorial claims-- Every suicide terrorist attack since 1980 has been directed against a democratic form of governmentSuicide terrorism has been rising for the past 25 years because it is often partially successful-- Palestinian management/control: West Bank, Gaza-- Regional autonomy negotiations for Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka-- Limited toleration for Kurdish minority in Turkey
455 Principles of Suicide Terrorism 4. More ambitious, large-scale attacks are unlikely to prove increasingly successful-- Large democratic states have little political incentive to concede when the stakes are very high -- public support5. The most promising tactic for reducing suicide terrorism is by reducing the terrorists’ confidence in further success-- Border control, increased internal security-- Military action alone is unlikely to create this effect
46Types of TerrorismTerrorists have a choice of tactics to use depending on the desire effectDemonstrative TerrorismUsed mainly to gain publicity, recruit activistsMay announce their action in advance (bomb threat)Destructive TerrorismMore aggressive, seeks to coerce enemiesBalance between effect of act and the potential to alienate potential sympathizersSuicide TerrorismMost aggressiveMay alienate the terrorists’ own community
47Types of Terrorism Two factors related to the news media are crucial Projection of an image of being unstoppableProjection of an image of being very numerousSuicide terrorism is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare, where the terrorist organization is weaker than their enemyTheir actions are a punishment for not acceding to previous demandsFear is intensified by the credible threat of additional future attacks
48Selected Suicide Terror Campaigns Terrorist GroupTerrorists’ GoalsTarget BehaviorApr-Dec 1983HezbollahUS/France out of LebanonComplete WithdrawalNov 1983-Apr 1985Israel out of LebanonComplete withdrawalApr 1984-Dec 2006Hamas, variousIsrael out of PalestineComplete withdrawal from Gaza, partial withdrawal from West BankAl QaedaUS out of Arabian Peninsula2000-Chechen RebelsRussia out of ChechnyaTBD2003-Al Qaeda, variousUS out of Iraq
49Analysis of Religious Terrorism Religious fanaticism and technologyTerrorists behave differently from regular criminals, religious terrorists behave differently from political terroristsReligious terrorists are not constrained by the same factors that inhibit other types of terrorists
50Analysis of Religious Terrorism Holy Terror vs. Secular TerrorSecular terrorists operate within a dominant political and cultural frameworkSecular terrorists would rather make allies than indiscriminately kill their enemiesHoly terrorists see the world as a battlefield between the forces of light and darknessHoly terrorists see killing as a sacramental act. Examples can be found in:The KoranChristian Old TestamentHebrew Bible
51Analysis of Religious Terrorism True believersReligious terrorists dismiss the religious views of othersWhen a person becomes a true believer and a religious doctrine sanctions the use of violence, deified terrorism results, that is, the act of terrorism itself is made sacred and holy
52Analysis of Religious Terrorism Other dangerous trends in holy terrorReligious terrorists are not utilitarian; that is, they are not a person seeking the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people. Religious terrorist seek the greatest good for themselvesReligious terrorists demonize their enemies; that is, they equate their enemies with the ultimate source of evil
53The Social Characteristics of Terrorists: Juergensmeyer’s Terror in God’s Mind Holy warriorsThe call to violence is a call to purify the world from the nonbeliever and the incorrect interpreters of tradition in a holy warThose who do not stand with the holy warrior are evilIf the holy warrior falls, the warrior becomes a martyr for hope; if the holy warrior is successful, it is a victory for the deity
54After the Sept 11 attacksThe “ clash of civilizations” theory suddenly gained new prominence in the westOriginally put forward by Bernard Lewis, an American historian of the Middle East in 1990.Expanded and given prominence by Samuel Huntington of Harvard University in an article in Foreign Affairs, later expanded into a book.
55Bernard Lewis: Islam “ an ancient rival against our Judeo-Christian heritage”. Traces the rivalry back to the time of the Islamic invasion of Spain, the western Crusades, the Ottoman invasion of eastern and central Europe, and the European defeat of the Ottomans after WW1.“The Muslim has suffered succesive stages of defeat….It was too much to endure, and the outbreak of rage against these alien, infidel and incomprehensible forces that subverted his dominance….was inevitable.”
56Bernard Lewis’ ideas have influenced important members of the Bush administration, including vice president CheneyTheir assumptions:Islamic societies are fundamentally anti democratic and repressive.Islamists are resentful and hate the freedom and liberty they see in the US, and want to destroy it.If Islam and the west are to live together, Islamic countries need to be democratized and modernised: this is the project in Iraq.
57Huntington’s thesis“The fundamental source of conflict..will not be primarily ideological or economic. The great divisions among humankind will be cultural.”“The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”He divides the world into seven or eight major civilizations: Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American.Huntington saw the main source of conflict in the world as being between western and Islamic civilization
58Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations and Esposito’s Response Huntington’s ThesisInternational peace will be threatened in “torn countries”. These are regions where more than one civilization exists within an areaJohn EspositoDisagrees with Huntington on Two Levels:Culture or civilization is defined by more than religionThere is no Islamic civilization
59Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations and Esposito’s Response Daniel PipesWhen looking at Islam, the major clash is not between civilizations, but rather within Islamic civilizationThomas BarnettBelieves Huntington’s clash comes between economic rather than cultural civilizations
61Islamic extremists too believe in a clash of civilization The West and Islam will “constantly be enemies…Islam must win and westerners will be destroyed. But we don’t have to make then enemies if they allow Islam to continue to grow so that in the end they will probably agree to be under Islam. If they refuse to be under Islam there will be chaos. If they want to have peace, they have to accept to be governed by Islam.” Abu-Bakr Bashir, head of Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia.
62Huntington’s and Lewis’ ideas have been vigorously criticised Confuses the thinking of a small Islamic fundamentalist fringe, with the majority of MuslimsDoes not distinguish between Arab Muslims and non Arab MuslimsAre “civilizations” that distinct and are they based on religion?
63Know Your Enemy“If you know yourself but do not know your enemy,you will sometimes meet with victory, sometimes with defeat.If you know your enemy but do not know yourself,But if you know yourself and you know your enemy,you will be victorious on a hundred occasions.”Sun-Tsu(The Art of War)“Muslims look forward to death the way Americans look forward to life.”Osama bin Laden(Islamic Terrorist)
64Global War on Terrorism--Who is the enemy? The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims – al Qa’ida being the most dangerous. Characteristics are:No state, no uniform, lives among the populationBelieves religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend IslamEven support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to over 12 million “enemies”While we may view his beliefs as dangerously misguided….He is absolutely committed to his causeHis religious ideology successfully attracts recruitsHe has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflictWe are at war with an enemy who flies no flag, defends no borders, has no standing armies, and occupies no territory but who derives its strength and support by:- Developing safe havens in the geographic, virtual, and mass media worlds – especially the internet- Setting up front companies to gain and move resources- Buying off politicians and financiers who launder illicit money- Co-opting or enlisting sympathetic civic and charitable organizations that propagate their ideology of hateThe followers of Islamic radicalism are bound together by this extreme ideology, not by any centralized command structure. This makes it easy for a loose network to achieve “unity of effort” and difficult for any single military campaign to eradicate the threat, since ideas can’t be eliminated by guns alone.They are masters of intimidation, but not of the battlefield. They can intimidate and kill ordinary people, but cannot win an engagement against military forces properly employed.They exploit local conflicts to build a culture of victimization; mobilize resentful, disillusioned, and underemployed young men and women, and use modern technology to amplify the effects of their destructive acts.
65TermsThis briefing refers to “ISLAM” and “ISLAMIC” to refer generally to the broad range of religious, cultural and socio-economic values and assumptions that are shared among the diverse adherents to the Islamic faith.This briefing refers to “ISLAMISTS” (“Islamic Fundamentalists”, “Fundamentalists”, “Extremists”) ) and requires that these terms be understood to refer to those Islamic extremists who have, by their words and actions, defined themselves as the enemies of all that is NOT in agreement with their view and are currently executing a violent campaign against those who do not share their agenda – primarily the U.S. This term does NOT refer to “all Muslims” nor Muslims of any particular denomination or sect of the broader religion of Islam. It refers ONLY to those Muslim extremists who are engaged in using violent means to expand the influence of their particular view of Islam. Some of these religious, and socio-political views are shared among most or even all Muslims. However, those views which have motivated Islamist, Fundamentalist Extremists to violent action are generally shared ONLY by those groups.“JIHAD” is an Arabic term that is used for any “struggle” INCLUDING warfare. It is frequently interpreted in a religious context as “Holy War” but CAN mean “struggle” as in a struggle to overcome a personal limitation or a “struggle” to understand a new point of view.“JIHADI” is one who struggles or “fights”. In the context of a religiously inspired “Holy War”, a “Jihadi” is a “Holy Warrior”.
66Islam Today????Islam (modernists, traditionalists and orthodox 80-85%?)Ancient religion of 1.5 billion peopleDiversity of beliefs, practices, and politicsIslamism (salafi Islam, fundamentalism) (15-20%?)Islam must have political power and a stateResponse to European colonialismModernism and the turn to IslamBut no unanimity about democracyJihadism (salafiyya jihadiyya) (<1%?)Extremist version of IslamismNo gradual implementation or political processOnly violence can recreate an idealized Islamic state called the “Caliphate”
67Historical Perspective I Islam spread very quickly by conversion and by developing empire.Mohammed was at once a prophet, religious leader, military leader, and government head.Crusades were a direct attack on this empire that included many lands outside of the Middle East. Focus is on Christian atrocities.
68Historical Perspective II Place of Christians and Jews in the early Islamic State and Mohammed's last wishes.Holy Land is for Muslims only: Arabia, Medina, MeccaWith the collapse of the Ottoman Empire the Caliphate (Islamic Leader) ended (1924).
69The Al Qaeda Manual I“After the fall of our orthodox caliphates on March 3, 1924 and after expelling the colonialists, our Islamic nation was afflicted with apostate rulers who took over in the Moslem nation. These .rulers turned out to be more infidel and criminal than the colonialists themselves.”
70Al Qaeda Manual II“Colonialism and its followers, the apostate rulers, then started to openly erect crusader centers, societies, and organizations like Masonic Lodges, Lions and Rotary clubs, and foreign schools. They aimed at producing a wasted generation that pursued everything that is western and produced rulers, ministers, leaders, physicians, engineers, businessmen, politicians, journalists, and information specialists.”
71Some general things to consider… Many in the Mid-East see the West as the cause of many of their problems.We (USA) are now THE representative of the West.Even though the Mid-East is rich in oil, the average person is not rich. Many dictators and kings have become rich while their people have suffered. Guess who helped to put many of these people into power???These monarchs and dictators have used brutality and violence to keep their own people in line.Education is very limited. Even those that are educated are not allowed/encouraged free thought. (Women)Even educated men have a hard time finding jobs in many Mid-Eastern countries. Lack of economic opportunities leads to anger.Many religious schools teach students to recite the Koran, but not what it means. (Arabic)Many view themselves as Muslim first, a citizen of their country second!Islam is a multinational and multiracial religion. Only a small minority of Muslims are Arab.Radicals like bin Laden and others see this as a holy war, a literal battle for world domination. Many radicals have the attitude “convert, or die.”People like bin Laden represent a small, but growing, minority of the 1 billion worldwide Muslims.
72“Problems” with Islam today No “Church” hierarchy. (Pope)No official Islamic DoctrineTeachings based on various Imam’s. Some very radical.Much illiteracy.Since most Muslims aren’t Arab, and the word of God is only revealed in Arabic, it makes sense that most Muslims don’t know what the Koran says. Therefore they rely on the interpretation of the imams.“Every Muslim who passes away without a gun in his hand faces Allah with the sins of abandoning fight… I strongly believe that there is no difference between who does not fight , and he who does not fast, pray or pay zakat (tithe). I believe no Muslim is excused from abandoning Jihad.” Shaykh Azzam
73Worldview Jewish Conspiracy US World Position Support of Israel BankingInfluence/Pulling the stringsUS World PositionLeader and therefore responsible regardless of proofSupport of IsraelThe Final Proof(How many Arab countries have accepted the right of Israel to exist at all?)
74GlobalizationForcing a secular western culture on a traditional Islamic cultureExtolling: music, morals, sex, values and materialismImporting to them low paying jobs.
75The Impact of Islamist World’s Economics* & Socio-demographics* The Appeal to A Dangerous Socio-Political ElementThe PoorThe Politically DisenfranchisedThe Youth BulgeWhile the leaders and “middle management” of the Islamist movements are generally from the middle and upper classes of Muslim nations, the majority of these Islamic Fundamentalists are poor, disenfranchised, and disempowered within their own societies. Islamists from all economic classes view the more moderate rulers of their countries as corrupt, compromised and worse, apostate – astray from the principles revealed by God himself for the governance of God’s community: Dar al Islam (“the world of Islam”). The enormous differences in political and economic power between what they see as the virtuous, pious and Godly poor on the one hand and the opulent decadence of the wealthy ruling class on the other is an affront to the fundamental precepts of Islam as they see it. This simply should NOT BE, according to them, since the Koran and the Hadith promise victory to those obedient to the precepts of Islam. Nevertheless, these profound socio-economic differences persist in the Islamic world. This has bread a sort of collective cognitive dissonance among Islamists which serves to motivate them to “make things right!”The vast and growing youth bulge evident in the broader Islamic world is producing generations of unemployed and, given the increasing technical standards of the modern world, unemployable young men. These men are typically at the peak of their physical abilities, psychologically pre-disposed toward territorial behaviors, and on the verge of what should be the life of a productive adult. But the socio-economics of their cultures do not permit them to advance to that stage of their lives. The frustration is consuming. They view the decadence of their political leaders as the result of their compromise with “Dar al Harb” the non-Islamic world – the West, the enemies of Islam as they understand it.The Corrupted and Apostate RichThe Virtuous Poor* TP , pp 30, 36
76Role of Islam in Society “In the Islamic system of values and from the point of view of Muslim fundamentalists, religion cannot be separated from any aspect of life.”“Religion is omnipresent in every aspect of a Muslim individual's private and social life from the economy to social relations.”“What does harm to the society is not religion - it is the way in which some of the rulers take advantage of religion”DR MEHDI KHAZALI, Iranian cleric
77Understanding IslamIslamChristian WestRole of religion for the believerThe defining doctrine regulating all aspects of personal behavior, family, political and economic life.An expression of private personal belief.
78Understanding IslamIslamChristian WestView of governmentThe world consists of one true faith divided into nations (Lewis, xx). There is no meaningful difference between political and religious communities.Dualism -- The world is split into two spheres, political (secular) and religious. Since the Enlightenment: religion should not be too prominent in politics.
79Understanding Islam Islam Christian West View of religion The Qur’an is a single book written by one man. There are no rituals, sacraments or ordinations that can only be performed by priests -- no mediation between man an God.The Bible is the work of numerous men over a considerable time. There is a religious caste (priests) who either mediate for believers or perform certain holy rites. The Church is an institution that preserves the dogma of the faith.
80Understanding Islam Islam Christian West View of society There is a polity that carries out the necessary functions of civic life, but it is also founded on principles derived from the Qur’an. This mirrors the practice of Muhammad, who was both a prophet and a political leader, merging “two traditions, the one authoritarian and quietest, the other radical and activist.” (Lewis, 11)Society is a broad community of people in voluntary association who pursue common interests, preserve common ways of life and belief. Religion is only one of many factors that bind people together; numerous social sub-structures also support and nourish civic life.
81Understanding Islam Islam Christian West View of the individual The individual is bound by a strict duty to observe religious law, participate in the great evangelistic work of the faith, and defend the honor of Muhammad, the Muslim faith and all those who profess them.Individuals may choose to bind themselves to a religious faith, or to no religion at all. Individuals should respect each other’s rights.“…most Muslim countries are still profoundly Muslim in a way and in a sense that most Christian countries are no longer Christian.” (Lewis, 16)
84What is Islamism? Literalism of Qur’an to all of society Islamic world decline due to loss of religious observance and caliphateMoral and religious law enforcement“Islamic state”Western culture breeds materialism, atheism, selfishness, and decadenceSeparate from the westState of Israel is illegitimate and should be removedAll Muslims should enroll in jihad to achieve these goals.Glorify martyrdomThis definition is central to understanding the conflict…Literalism of Qur’an to all of societyIslamic world decline due to loss of religious observance and caliphateMoral and religious law enforcement“Islamic state”Western culture breeds materialism, atheism, selfishness, and decadenceSeparate from the westState of Israel is illegitimate and should be removedAll Muslims should enroll in jihad to achieve these goals.Glorify martyrdom
85Islamist Perceptions & Motivations…? How would YOU feel if this was Kansas City, MO.?Baghdad, April 2003How would YOU feel if this was Cincinnati, OH?DiscussionAre Islamist Motivations Different From Ours…?Baghdad, April 2003
86Madrassas/WahhabismWahhabi: 1750’s reformer to an earlier “purer” Islam. Embraced and propagated by Saudi Arabia today in their education system home and abroad. Saudi Arabia Academy in Alexandria, VA.Unity of Religion, Government, MilitaryExamples: Pakistan, Egypt, SudanStrong Fundamentalist Movements
87Jihad Means “Struggle.” Jihad of the heart/soul is an inner struggle of good against evil in the mind.Jihad by the tongue is a struggle of good against evil waged by writing and speech.Jihad by the pen and knowledge is a struggle for good against evil through scholarly study of Islam.Jihad by the hand refers to a struggle of good against evil waged by actions or with one's wealth, such as going on the Hajj pilgrimage (seen as the best jihad for women), taking care of elderly parents, or political activity for furthering the cause of Islam.Jihad by the sword refers to qital fi sabilillah (armed fighting in the way of God, or holy war), the most common usage by Salafi Muslims and offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood.5 Kinds of Jihad, but we mostly only hear about the last!
88Joining the Jihad: The conventional wisdom Do ideas cause people to join the jihad?People join terrorist organizations because they are:PoorBroken family backgroundIgnorant (uneducated)Immature young menNo skillsNo family or job responsibilityWeak minds, vulnerable to brainwashing (madrassas, family or direct appeal)Mentally illCriminalsReligious fanaticsEvil
89Joining the Jihad: The evidence Based on 400 subjects:2/3 from solid upper or middle class backgroundVast majority from intact caring family60% had some college educationAverage age was 26 years3/4 were professional or semi-professional3/4 were married & most had childrenHalf were religious children, only 13% were madrassa educatedOnly 1% had thought disorder (global base rate). Very little evidence of personality disorder.Only European 2nd generation, immigrants & converts were petty criminalThe vast majority was not religious in early adulthood.
90Joining the jihad: What really counts Alienated from society70% expatriates10% excluded second generation or immigrantsPre-existing social bondsFriendship: 68% “bunch of guys” making alienated young Muslims into fanatics joining togetherKinship: 20%Worship: 10%Discipleship: 8%Bottom up activity: no top down recruitment program
91Becoming an Islamist terrorist Upwardly & geographically mobile peopleMostly from religious caring & middle class familiesInternational people, conversant in 3 or 4 languagesSkilled in computer technologySeparated from traditional bonds & cultureHomesick, lonely, marginalized sought new friendsDrifted to mosques for companionship, not religionMoved in together, formed cliques (“Bunch of Guys”)
92The Motivation of the Individual Jihadi Inside The Jihadi MindThe Motivation of the Individual JihadiVarious and ComplexNothing to LoseReligious DutyOnly Guarantee of Paradise“ Muslims look forward to death the way Americans look forward to life” - Osama bin LadenThe victims of the current state of affairs in the Islamic world are the poor, the disenfranchised, those without any real hope of a better life. Increasingly they are young men, ripe for recruiting by organized groups executing Jihad in the world in order to expel the Western infidels form holy Islamic turf and to expand the world of Islam. The average young man in many Muslim lands from Palestine to Pakistan is afforded little or no reason to live. He is surrounded by others who have never had a reason to live. Like his friends, he has little or even nothing to lose. By contrast, Islam holds out the promise of an ultimate guaranteed victory over those who caused his plight as well as an eternal paradise surrounded by beautiful women in lush gardens.There is no guarantee of salvation or heaven in Islam; Islam promises nothing to anyone… with one exception. The only persons guaranteed salvation (“paradise”, -Heaven) are those who fight or die in battle for the cause of Islam. The Koran itself promises:“Let those fight in the cause of Allah who sell the life of this world for the Hereafter. To him who fights in the cause of Allah, -whether he is slain or gets victory- soon shall We give him a reward of great value.” – Sura 4:74To those who have attained paradise many promises are made:“As for the righteous, they shall surely triumph. Theirs shall be gardens and vineyards, and high- bosomed virgins for companions: a truly overflowing cup.” - Sura 37:40-48“...They will sit with bashful, dark-eyed virgins, as chaste as the sheltered eggs of ostriches.” - Sura 44:51-55“...Yes and We shall wed them to dark-eyed houris. (beautiful virgins) - Sura 52:17-20“...They shall recline on couches ranged in rows. To dark-eyed houris (virgins) we shall wed them... “- Sura 55:56-57“In them will be bashful virgins neither man nor Jinn will have touched before. Then which of the favors of your Lord will you deny ?" - Sura 55:57-58In order to understand their motivations, it is critical to understand that Islamist Muslims of the Fundamentalist variety believe every word of these promises without the slightest equivocations.The Brutal PresentThe Idyllic Future
94Objective 1: Expel America and Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq Attacks against theWest ContinueAmerica departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity to provide security.Insurgents step up attacks against the government and make religious claims for regime change.Extremists overthrow the democratic government of Iraq and replace it with a Taliban-like regime.United Nations issues a resolution, but does not commit to action.United States does not re-enter the conflictLets explore, for a moment, how al Qa’ida’s stated objectives may play out.If we lose our will and depart Iraq before establishing a secure and legitimate government, the enemy could eventually overthrow the government – much like we saw a few years after departing Southern Vietnam. This may take a few years or a decade for them to achieve. Either way, the result is the same – Iraq becomes a Taliban-like state that harbors, supports, and promotes terrorism beyond its borders.Extremists now have an Emirate in Iraq that serves as a base of operations from which they can revive the Caliphate.94
95Objective 2: Extend the Jihad Wave to Neighboring Countries Attacks against theWest ContinueWould Israeljoin the conflict?Would the U.S.re-enter the conflict?2. With Iraq as a base of operations, the extremists have the resources to export their message and terrorist acts throughout the middle east. The probability exists that the governments of Jordon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt are undermined and eventually collapse – replaced by fundamental extreme regimes. The overthrow of these governments revives the Caliphate, establishes Baghdad as it capital and threatens Israel.Extremists export their message and terrorist acts throughout the middle east.Violence and extremist ideology undermine governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt.Moderate governments collapse; Taliban-like regimes take their place.Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.The revived Caliphate now turns its attention to the destruction of Israel95
96Objective 3: Destroy Israel Might nuclearweapons beemployed?Attacks againstthe West continueAt what point doesthe U.S. returnto Middle East?Allies?3. The new extremist regimes surround Israel and have the resources necessary to legitimately threaten the security of that nation. Potentially, the extremist use their vast oil wealth to procure and employ weapons of mass destruction. While attacks within the United States and Europe continue, the world is forced to decide whether to re-enter the conflict to defend Israel or not. It is likely that Israel will employ any and all means necessary to defend themselves – including the use of nuclear weapons. If this happens, it is likely that either Iran or potentially Pakistan might respond with nuclear weapons themselves to defend the Islamic world.Attacks against Israel intensify.United Nations issues resolution to stand down.Caliphate gains support within the Muslim worldCaliphate attacks IsraelExtremists now poised to re-establish the historical Caliphate96
97Objective 4: Establish the historical Caliphate The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the remaining Islamic states to join the restoration.Remaining Islamic states collapse from within.4. The results of any mass warfare in the middle east are ambiguous but it would likely lead to clash of civilizations between the Islamic world and the west. Should the west falter in the face of this threat, the extremist would likely garner the support of the entire Islamic world and expand the caliphate to historical borders. The implications of this are extraordinary but it would require the defeat of the United States.This would require the defeat of the U. S.; how could that happen?
98Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror
99Significant militant Islamist attacks against Americans
100What was our response?We ‘proved’ to the Middle East that we are weak.This, along with the defeat of the USSR in Afghanistan led to the rise of Al Qaeda.OBL considers America a “paper tiger” that “would after a few blows run in defeat.” (TOEE, 149.)OBL is quoted as saying that the Marine withdraw from Beirut signaled the “decline of the American government and the weakness of the American soldier who is ready to wage cold wars and unprepared to fight long wars.”
101What is Al-Qaeda?Osama bin Laden led organization of radical Islamic terroristsWahhabi sect of IslamFounded during Afghan resistance to USSRFunded in part by the USUS support of Saudis and US troops in Saudi Arabia in Gulf War turned him against USAttacked US Embassies, USS Cole, 9/11 and more
102Al Qaeda's World View (1)Islam in mortal danger from the West; jihad a dutyRecent events confirm al Qaeda's interpretation--Americans are the new Mongols:U.S. troops still in Saudi ArabiaU.S. remains in AfghanistanU.S. establishing bases in the Middle East, Gulf, Central and South AsiaPakistan, America's puppet, has abandoned true path to join the oppressors
103Al Qaeda's World View (2) U.S. occupies Iraq, threatens Syria, Iran Palestine occupied--supported ZionistsWestern corruption threatens Muslim soulsJihad is the antidoteU.S. is thus a threat and an opportunity--hostile to Islam, supports local tyrants, but also provides common enemy and basis for unityAction will awaken, demonstrate, instruct, inspire, bring about spiritual revival, foster unityA powerful message whose appeal thrives on failure, humiliation, and anger
104Introduction to Al Qaeda Thought statement (Ayman al-Zawahiri)“The need to inflict the maximum casualties against the opponent, for this is the language understood by the West, no matter how much time and effort such operations take.”“Tracking down the Americans and Jews is not impossible. Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or a device made up of a popular mix of explosives, or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available means, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and Jews.”
106“The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim.”World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
107This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah."World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
108Past Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda February 26, 1993New York City, New YorkWorld Trade Center BombingKuwaiti man, Ramzi Yousef, and at least three other men planted a “car” bomb in the garage of the World Trade Center, hoping that the blast would topple one tower into the other as well as spread cyanide gas across town killing thousands.
109Ramzi Yousef“After being captured in Pakistan, he was flown into Stewart Airport in Newburgh, New York, and then transferred to an FBI helicopter for the trip to the Metropolitan Correctional Center next to Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. ‘Two huge guys carried him off the plane, shackled and blindfolded…’ ‘After we got airborne and were flying down the Hudson River, one of the SWAT guys asks me, ‘Can we take off his blindfold?’ It took Yousef a minute to focus his eyes. Ironically, the helicopter was alongside the World Trade Center. The SWAT guy gives him a nudge and says, ‘You see, it’s still standing.’ And Yousef says, ‘It wouldn’t be if we had more money.’” (The Looming Tower, pg Emphasis Added)
1101993 WTC BombingRationale: Leader of a terrorist cell heeding the call of Jihad on the U.S.Result: 6 people dead, 1000 injured, Towers stayed upright and the cyanide gas evaporated in the heat of the explosion.Ramzi Yousef was sentenced to life in prison on January 8, 1998
111Past Terrorist Attacks… August 7, 1998Kenya and TanzaniaAmerican Embassy BombingsSuicide bomb attacks at two different embassies hundreds of miles apart, but within minutes of each other.First recognized acts of Al Qaeda, a network of terrorists led and supported by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi Arabian millionaire.
112Embassy Bombings Rationale: Response to a call for Jihad on the U.S. Result: 12 people dead, 224 injuredOsama bin Laden became a recognized name and hit the FBI’s Top Ten Most Wanted Men
113Past Terrorist Attacks… October 12, 2000Yemen naval portBombing of the U.S.S. ColeTwo men, later linked to Al Qaeda, sailed a small boat full of explosives next to the U.S.S. Cole, detonating the bomb.Leaving a 20 x 40 foot hole in the side of the ship.Rationale: Goal was to sink the ship and lower U.S. moraleResult: 17 sailors dead, 39 injuredNo one has been held accountable, added to the list of grievances against and crimes of Osama bin Laden
1141. The Events of 9/11How/why we have developed courses on terrorism, CT, info warfare, religion/philosophy, HS, etc.; CTC overview; courses; textbooks developed; SOLIC; future educational plans
115On a beautiful, clear day in September . . . 1. The Events of 9/11On a beautiful, clear day in September . . .Four planes hijacked; three flown into office buildings in NYC and DCNYC attacks (2nd plane crash) shown on live television; American attention riveted; other tv shows replaced by 9/11 coverageAll airplanes grounded; schools closed; sports cancelledWTC towers collapse, shown on live televisionClose coverage of whereabouts of Pres. Bush, other national leadersLots of commentary and questions; few informed answers; lots of emotion, Congressional Representatives spontaneously singing patriotic songs on the steps of Capitol Hill// ##AB95-5.PPT
1162. The Psychological Impact of 9/11 How/why we have developed courses on terrorism, CT, info warfare, religion/philosophy, HS, etc.; CTC overview; courses; textbooks developed; SOLIC; future educational plans
1172. The Psychological Impact Post Traumatic Stress DisorderIndividuals who have been exposed to a traumatic event may experience at least one recurrent symptom related to the event (such as intrusive, repeated recollections or dreams of the event)Persistently avoids people, activities or places associated with the eventCannot recall important aspects of the traumaShows disinterest in their usual daily activities and a sense of foreboding about the futureHyper arousal (difficulty in falling or staying asleep, outbursts of anger, hyper vigilance, an inability to concentrate, or exaggerated startle responses)May lead to significant impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of the individual’s life// ##AB95-5.PPT
1182. The Psychological Impact Common Themes in the Research on 9/11 Psychological ImpactLiving closer to the attack scene, direct personal loss, and children were more likely to exhibit symptoms of PTSDSadness was the most frequent reaction among New Yorkers, followed by anxiety and fearAlmost 20% of Americans across the country reported symptoms of distressconstant news coverage, replays of video footage showing the second plane hitting the World Trade Center, helped all Americans feel closer to the eventAmericans did not withdraw from othersStress and uncertainty produces social behaviors: people seek out others, perhaps to enhance social support, or to help to affirm one’s cultural view of the world and the threat (Brandon & Silke)Increased participation in religious services, memorials, vigils// ##AB95-5.PPT
1193. The Economic Impact of 9/11 How/why we have developed courses on terrorism, CT, info warfare, religion/philosophy, HS, etc.; CTC overview; courses; textbooks developed; SOLIC; future educational plans
120Confusion/Disagreement on Total Economic Impact 3. The Economic ImpactConfusion/Disagreement on Total Economic ImpactNY City Economic Impact“Total Loss $83 billion” (NYC partnership & Chamber of Commerce: Nov 2001)“Total Cost $54 billion” (NY Governor: Oct 2001)“WTC Replacement Cost & Cleanup $25~29 billion” (FEB NY: April 2002)“Total Cost $83 billion (quoting NYCP-COC) but $67 billion covered by Insurance (US GAO: May 2002)NY City Jobs Lost108,500, 115,300, 105,200, 125,000, 84,000, 78,200, 129,000….NY State Jobs Lost“99,000 in 2001, 78,000 in 2002, 77,000 in 2003” (NYS Senate Finance Committee: DRI-WEFA: January 2002)“Resulted at peak loss of 78,200” (DRI-WEFA: March 2002)“50,000 immediately, 70,000 in 4th Quarter” “Much of this loss is likely linked to WTC attack” (FEB NY: April 2002)// ##AB95-5.PPT
121Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts Financial Sector 3. The Economic ImpactImmediate and Short-Term Economic ImpactsFinancial Sector40% of WTC casualtiesNYSE, NYME closedAviation Sectorplanes grounded for a week or more20% drop in passengers100,000 jobs lost; several airlines went bankruptInsurance Sectorloss of life and property estimated at $40-$50 billion// ##AB95-5.PPT
122Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts 3. The Economic ImpactImmediate and Short-Term Economic ImpactsOther industries were also badly affected, such as hotels, tourism, automobile rentals, travel agents, and civilian aircraft manufactures.Hotels reported higher vacancy rates and employment in the sector as a whole fell by 58,000 (about 3%) in October and November, 2001Nearly 18,000 businesses were dislocated, disrupted or destroyed by the attacksAlso, over 300 firefighters and nearly 100 policeman were killed while trying to evacuate the World Trade Center before it collapsed// ##AB95-5.PPT
123Longer-Term Economic Impacts 3. The Economic ImpactLonger-Term Economic ImpactsFederal Reserve cut interest rates aggressivelySpecial financing incentives offered by the automobile companies led to record motor vehicle sales for October 2001Securities market was only closed for four days, opening again after the telecommunications network in lower Manhattan became operational.Stock market re-opened on September 17th; within 19 trading days, the S&P 500 index had bounced back to its pre-September 11th level// ##AB95-5.PPT
124Longer-Term Economic Impacts 3. The Economic ImpactLonger-Term Economic ImpactsNew York City lost a significant amount of its office space and a number of businesses ceased to exist.Close to 200,000 jobs were destroyed or relocated to other cities34.5 million square feet of office space lost// ##AB95-5.PPT
125Longer-Term Economic Impacts 3. The Economic ImpactLonger-Term Economic ImpactsCity-wide impact; airports and midtown hotels not just south of Canal StreetLow-income workers bore the brunt (60%)People of color and immigrants (56%) hard hitChinatown, “economic ground zero”, and other poor communities heavily affectedInsurance costs have risen on average 33% since 2001Diversion of resources and capacity toward security-related products and servicesShort-term direct impacts were not as significant as the financial costs of the long-term response that is still underway// ##AB95-5.PPT
1263. The Economic ImpactBottom Line9/11 events inflicted severe and immediate physical impacts to all businesses, government offices, and other organizations located in and around the WTC complex.This event involved dead, injured, missing, physically displaced and traumatized employees, losses of data, information, and institutional knowledge, and an unprecedented uncertainty in market behavior// ##AB95-5.PPT
128Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds December 7, 1941The purpose of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was to destroy U.S. military capabilities in the Pacific
129Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds September 11, 2001The 9-11 attacks were designed for drama. They were a tragedy performed on a subnational level, with the purpose of murdering thousands of people to create an aura of fearThe goal of the September 11 terrorists was not one of conventional military strategy. Its purpose was to create so much feat that Western institutions would change their behaviorThe terrorists of September 11 were attacking globalization while America was defending state power
130Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds The new style of conflictJihadists are not attacking state power; they are attacking the idea of Western, and particularly American cultureModern terrorism is aimed at the infrastructure of everyday life and the symbols that define that structure
1312004 – Spain Commuter Trains March 11, 2004Three days before national elections, 10 bombs were detonated on crowded commuter trains during rush hour. Three were deactivated by security forces and one was found unexploded.Evidence quickly surfaced that jihadist terrorists with possible ties to the al Qaeda network were responsible for the attack that killed 191 people.
133London – July 2005The 7 July 2005 London bombings were a series of coordinated bomb blasts that struck London's public transport system during the morning rush hour.At 8:50 a.m. three bombs exploded within 50 seconds of each other on three London Underground trains.A fourth bomb exploded on a bus nearly an hour later.56 people, including the 4 bombers, were killedAbout 700 people were injured
134August 2006 - England Great Britain arrested more than 20 individuals Plotting to detonate liquid explosives aboard flights from the United Kingdom to the United States.They planned to bring the components of their explosives on board in their carry-on luggage, disguised as bottled drinks and electronic devices.
135July EnglandFailed terrorist attempts (car bombings) in Glasgow and LondonEight have links with the British National Health Service. The BBC indicated that seven are doctors, medical students and a laboratory technician.The eight people who have been arrested in Australia, England and Scotland all worked in National Health Hospitals.
137The 1998 “Fatwa” Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders The fatwa lists three "crimes and sins" committed by the Americans:U.S. military occupation of the Arabian Peninsula.U.S. aggression against the Iraqi people.U.S. support of Israel
1381. U.S. Military Occupation of the Arabian Peninsula. “First, for over seven years the United States has been occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the Arabian Peninsula, plundering its riches, dictating to its rulers, humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors, and turning its bases in the Peninsula into a spearhead through which to fight the neighboring Muslim peoples. ““If some people have in the past argued about the fact of the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now acknowledged it. The best proof of this is the Americans' continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are against their territories being used to that end, but they are helpless.”-1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
1392. U.S. Aggression Against the Iraqi People. “Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, and despite the huge number of those killed, which has exceeded 1 million... despite all this, the Americans are once against trying to repeat the horrific massacres, as though they are not content with the protracted blockade imposed after the ferocious war or the fragmentation and devastation.”-1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
1403. US Support of Israel“Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.”-1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
142Why study Bin Laden?OSB is responsible for multiple attacks on US targets at home and abroadOSB is not the leader of all Islamic extremists, but he has become an inspiration to many of themOSB has given us many concise statements as to his grievancesOSB wants to kill YOU!!!!!He is more dangerous that most countries. If they attack we know where to get them, not so for OBL
143Main Themes of Bin Laden’s Rhetoric The United States is the main enemy of Islam.Islam has been betrayed from within by Muslim governments who have been corrupted.The Jihad is self defense!Bin Laden is a motivator of all Muslims, not their leader.All weapons are on the table.-Taken from Through Our Enemies Eyes: Osama bin Laden,Radical Islam, and the Future of America,
144Osama bin Laden Saudi born One of 52 Sons and Daughters fathered by Mohammed bin Laden with 22 different wives. (Wright, The Looming Tower, 82)Heir to bin Laden construction companyWesternized until his teens
146Bin Laden’s war: the beginnings… 1979-Soviet forces arrive in Afghanistan to support communist forces who had taken power in a coup a year earlier.Resistance against the Soviet forces soon became a “ jihad”, a holy struggle to evict an atheist invader from a Muslim countryPakistan and Saudi Arabia were the largest backers of this jihad. The Saudi’s provided the funds, and Pakistan provided the training camps. Thousands of youth from across the Muslim world flocked to join this “ jihad”
147Among them was Osama Bin Laden, the son of a wealthy construction industry businessman. Bin Laden, born in 1957, was the 17th of his father’s 57 children. He studied business administration and then Islamic studies at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
148Bin Laden’s father was one of many who provided funds for the Afghan mujahideen, and Bin Laden began visiting the area in 1980.By 1982, he settled down in Peshawar, Pakistan, the main centre for the Afghan mujahideen. He brought in engineers from his company, and built roads and other buildings for the fighters
149The CIA’s roleBy the early 1980, the CIA had begun funding and arming the mujahideen against the Soviet Union.The CIA, with the help of the Pakistani intelligence services and Saudi money, set up training camps, poured large amounts of money and weapons into the region.In 1986, his company built a huge CIA financed underground tunnel and storage complex for the mujahideenBetween 1982 and 1992 an estimated 35,000 young Muslims from all over the world were trained in these camps.
150“ I settled in Pakistan in the Afghan border region “ I settled in Pakistan in the Afghan border region. There I received volunteers who came from the Saudi kingdom and all over the Arab and Muslim countries.I set up my first camp where these volunteers were trained by American and Pakistani officers. The weapons were supplied by the Americans, the money by the Saudis.”Osama bin Laden in an interview to AFP, 27 August 1998
1511989, Bin Laden forms his own group, known as Al Qaeda, or “the base” 1989, Bin Laden forms his own group, known as Al Qaeda, or “the base”. Using his own money,as well as money from Saudi Arabia, the organisation grows, and attracts Arab militantsIn 1990, after the Soviet withdrawal, Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia and works in the family business. He also sets up a welfare organisation for Arab veterans of the Afghan war.Most importantly, OBL returned home “with an address book containing the names of everybody who was anybody in Islamic activism and guerrilla warfare in his pocket. (TOEE, 117.)
152In 1991, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait Bin Laden wanted the Saudi royal family to create a force of Afghan war veterans to fight Saddam. Instead, the Saudis allowed US forces to be based in Saudi ArabiaBin Laden was furious about US troops would be based so closed to the sacred sites of Mecca and Medina. He criticized the Saudi royal family for allowing non Muslims to be based in the country.His view is widely accepted in the Arab world.“Never has Islam suffered a greater disaster than this invasion.” OBLThe Saudi royal family revokes Bin Laden’s citizenship
153Bin Laden in Sudan and Afghanistan 1992, Bin Laden moves to Sudan, where he helps an Islamic revolution under Hassan Turabi.He uses his money to fund Islamic militants and gets together more Arab veterans from Afghanistan and runs construction projects.OBL funds Muslim fighters in Somalia and sends at least 250 of his own men to aid in the fight against the US.Somali’s “received some expert guidance [on the use of rocket propelled grenades] from Islamic soldiers smuggled in form Sudan, who had experience fighting Russian helicopters in Afghanistan.” (Mark Bowen, Black Hawk Down)By now, he has begun the attract the attention of the US as a financier of terrorist organisationsSaudi Arabia and the US put pressure on Sudan to give Bin Laden up. He leaves for Afghanistan in 1996, where he is welcomed by the Taliban1998 Bin Laden issues a call for jihad against the US in the middle eastBy 1999 he is on FBI’s 10 Most Wanted List
154Did Bush and Clinton drop the ball? We had many chances to kill OBL in the 1990’s, but chose not to.February 2001, the director of the CIA told Congress that OBL was the US’s “top national security threat.”Some Bush insiders say that Bush was only concerned with Iraq and Iran and never paid any attention to the threat posed by OBL and other terrorists.August 6, President Bush received a briefing entitled “Bin Laden determined to strike in US.”“Even by the standards of the terrorist involved, the scale of assault [on September 11, 2001] was unimaginable. The point, though, is that we didn’t even try to find out what was headed our way.” – Robert Baer, See No Evil.
155Character Traits of Bin Laden From Through Our Enemies’ Eyes Personal Responsibility- He truly feels he is doing his job by waging Jihad against America.Piety- OBL is a devout Muslim. Gave up a life of riches to live with commoners and wage jihad against us.Professionalism- Businesslike in running Al Qaeda. His looks make us think he is an uneducated, anti-modern, crazy man, when this is the exact opposite.Courageous- Wounded at least twice fighting in Afghanistan
156Did the CIA, FBI and NSA drop the ball? In the early 90’s the FBI “regarded terrorism as a nuisance, not a threat.”- (The Looming Tower, 4.)As of the mid 1990’s, only 8 FBI agents in the entire country spoke Arabic. (The Looming Tower, 309.)FBI Director Louis Freeh “repeatedly stressed in White House meetings that al-Qaeda posed no domestic threat.” (The Looming Tower, 336.)Though the NSA was able to monitor the satellite phones of bin Laden and Al Zawahiri, they refused to share the information with the FBI or CIA. (The Looming Tower, 321.)
157How is OBL viewed today?MuslimsThe WestMany throughout the world, not just Muslims, respect OBL because he has not backed down.He has become one of the great warriors in the history of Islam.“Wherever Muslims are in trouble, it seems, Usama Bin Laden will be there, slaying enemies, real or perceived. A modern nightmare really- a big screen villain, a free-lancer with the resources of a state, but without all the nasty obligations.” (John Miller as quoted in TOEE, 189.)“The West has pretty much decided that bin Laden is a serious threat only because he is a trigger-happy nut, psychopath, or violence prone youngster who never grew up.” TOEE, p. 300
158Excerpt from Through Our Enemies Eyes, pg. 196. “Bin Laden, however has no fixed address. When American military might comes calling the odds are Bin Lade, like Muhammad Ali, will float like a Muslim butterfly and live to sting another day like the prophet’s bee. All this is to say that it is counterintuitive for Hizballah and Iran- and Sudan and Iraq, for that matter- to deliberately put their heads on the chopping block with al Qaeda whey they derive the same benefit by doing nothing. Al Qaeda already has killed Americans, embarrassed Washington by forcing U.S. leaders into a war of words with a Saudi they cannot find, increased anti-Americanism among Muslims, caused the United States to spend $1.4 billion for security upgrades for its embassies and double its counterterrorism budget in five years, and put US forces in Saudi Arabia into isolated desert cantonments at a prolonged and enervating state of alert. All this is in the interest of Hizballah and Iran and, to date, they have benefited at no cost to themselves.”
159Bin Laden is not crazy!Americans feel we are right and do not see ourselves as a threat.When someone doesn’t like us or our policies, we consider that they must be demented.Bin Laden’s public statements have been clear, concise and logical.In other words, he has basically told us what he will do (not specifically) and why.Yet we continue to ignore his threats!
160What our government doesn’t tell us! Why did bin Laden attack us?Many times, government officials say that bin Laden attacked us because of who we are, how we live and what we believe in.“Americans are asking, why do they hate us? They hate what we see right here in this chamber -- a democratically elected government. Their leaders are self-appointed. They hate our freedoms -- our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.” President Bush, September 20, 2001This is a blatant lie.Bin Laden attacked us for what we have done, not who we are.“Most important, his words leave no room to doubt that Americans are being attacked for what they do in the Islamic world, not for how they think, live or govern themselves.”-Scheuer, TOEE, pg. x.“The focused and lethal threat…(comes) from their plausible perception that the things they love and value- God, Islam, their brethren, and Muslim lands are being attacked by America.” Scheuer, IH, 9.
161Bin Laden’s threat.“If he had the wherewithal to kill Americans and attack U.S. targets he would do so, but he doesn’t…..He’s serious about wanting to kill Americans, but as long as he’s in Afghanistan, as long as he doesn’t have access to a cell phone,…. His ability to plan and conduct terrorist operations is extremely limited.” Anonymous US official, 1999.He is responsible for attacks on US interests all over the world.Even though most of us had never heard of OBL before 9/11/01, the CIA, FBI, and many other government agencies were aware of him and his threat.Besides 9/11, OBL has been behind many attacks on US interests throughout the world.“In response, the United States never seemed to take bin Laden too seriously, let alone accept the fact that our nation was in the path of real danger.” (Scheuer, xvii.)
162We are the enemy! The Christian West is Islam’s main enemy. We are the leader of an unholy alliance that includes many European countries, India, China, etc.“Bin Laden portrays Americans and their allies as inhuman creatures that thirst for Muslim blood, delight in gore, and aim to annihilate the Islamic world.” (Scheuer, 47)Calls “us” “Crusaders.” Trying to rekindle Muslim memory of Crusades in the Middle Ages.The Islamic world, just like 1,000 years ago “stands at a critical juncture in history, threatened by a phased plan by the Judeo-Christian conspiracy… to gradually de-Islamicize and occupy the Muslim holy places in the Arabian Peninsula.”- Professor Manstorp.According to OBL and others, there is no difference between you and a US Soldier.“The [Americans] are a people whose president becomes more popular when he kills innocent people… If the majority of people support their dissolute president, this means the American people are fighting us and we have a right to target them.” OBL, 1999.
163The Enemies from Within! “The US is increasing its presence in Arab countries in order to capture its oil reserves…..We [the Islamic World] are suffering a daily loss of one hundred and fifteen dollars per barrel… During the last 13 years the US has cost us a loss of eleven hundred billion dollars… The US buys cheap oil from us and then sells us its own tanks and aircraft with the threat of Israel.” OBL, 1997 interview with Pakistan“The overwhelming evidence is that the majority of our terrorist enemies come from purportedly friendly countries, and their main grievance against us is that, in their eyes, we are responsible for maintaining the tyrannical regimes that rule over them.” Scheuer, IH, pg. 11.Bin Laden sees the Saudi Arabian government, and others as “criminal despots who betrayed God and his prophet, and betrayed their trust and their nation.”Saudi Arabia is Bin Laden’s biggest target because they allow the US to have military bases in the “Land of the Two Holy Places.”Saudi Arabian government is nothing more than a “branch or agent of the US” to OBL.OBL has said that Saudi Arabia’s oil policy is a “economic hemorrhage.”If the United States is beheaded, the Arab Kingdoms will wither away.” OBL
164Self DefenseOBL sees “Islam and the Muslim world are being attacked by a more modern, powerful, and predatory version of the medieval Catholic Crusaders” (Scheuer, 54)Therefore it is every Muslim’s duty to fight to defend their religion and culture. (Total War)According to OBL it is the duty of every Muslim “to kill Americans and destroy or steal their property and money.” (Scheuer, 60)Familiar???????
165InspirationBin laden has continually stated that he is not a worldwide Islamic leader.His duty, and Al-Qaeda’s is to support “anyone who carries out military action against the Americans.”“We seek to instigate the nation (Muslims) to get up and liberate its land, fight for the sake of God, and to make Islamic law the highest law, and the word of God the highest word of all.”- OBL“If the instigation for jihad against the Jews and Americans in order to liberate Al-Asqa mosque, and the Holy Ka’aba, is considered a crime, then let history witness that I am a criminal.” OBL“It is our duty to lead people to the light…” OBL
166All’s Fair!Bin Laden is looking for a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon (CBRN).“I would say that acquiring (CBRN) weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.” OBL“Bin Laden is not interested in using a CBRN weapon to terrorize his foes; he is seeking a first strike capability.” (Scheuer, 72.)Killing Muslim civilians is an unfortunate, but acceptable effect of using a CBRN against the Crusaders.“Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or device made up of a popular mix of explosives or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available mean, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and the Jews.- Ayamen Zawahiri“Osama bin Laden sees heroin as a powerful new weapon in his war against the West that is capable of wreaking social havoc while generating huge profits.” Washington Times, 1998.OBL sees our dropping of atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as “examples of America’s disregard for human life.” (Scheuer, 49.)“Did the U.S. forget….. what it did to the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki…?”- OBL
167Bin Laden’s Followers“Why are many young people…willing to kill themselves to strike America?”- David P. Baugh, defense attorney for African Embassy bomber.Because they believe in bin Laden and they agree with his message the Islam is under attack by the West.They too see American as the “Evil Empire.”“Bin Laden has become a pan-Arab hero because the Arab and Muslim peoples are yearning to any voice that says no to the United States.”- Muntasir al-Zayyat
168Strategy and Recruitment Recruitment and propaganda effortsVideo and audio tapes, CD-Roms, DVDs and the InternetKey themes of al Qaeda recruitment:The West is implacably hostile to IslamOnly language the West understands is violenceJihad is the only option9/11 was a tremendous victory (U.S. economy was destroyed and the course of history was changed)U.S. is a paper tiger on the verge of financial ruin and total collapse“Patience and steadfastness” are required
169Strategy and TrainingLessons for new recruits include:education in explosives and detonators: how to assemble bombs (e.g., TNT, C4), mines and grenades, pressure and trip wire booby traps, and the basic knowledge of electrical engineeringhow to mount rocket launchers in the beds of pickup truckshow and where to launder moneyhow to successfully conduct a kidnappinghow to conduct target identification, surveillance and reconnaissancehow and where to build camouflage-covered trencheshow to covertly communicate with other members of a group or networkhow to fire handguns, machine guns and rocket propelled grenade launchers
170Strategy and Training the rudiments of chemical and biological warfare Lessons for new recruits include:the rudiments of chemical and biological warfarefield command and escape tacticsmarksmanship and camouflagethe use and employment of Soviet rocket-propelled grenades and shoulder borne STRELA missilessniper rifle skills; how to fine-tune a rifle sight at short range to ensure accuracy at longer distanceshow to direct weapon fire at targets on the ground and in the airtraining in four-man unit deployments and formations—including wedges, columns, echelons and lines—techniques similar to those used by U.S. Marines and Army Rangers
171Is there a broader war between Islam and the west? The war in Iraq has convinced more and more people in the Middle East that the US seeks to dominate them, using Israel and Iraq as bases.Not a clash between Islam and the west, but US interests, and those of the people of the Middle East.
172War on IraqOur armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. ... It is [not] the wish of [our] government to impose upon you alien institutions. ... [It is our wish] that you should prosper even as in the past, when your lands were fertile, when your ancestors gave to the world literature, science, and art, and when Baghdad city was one of the wonders of the world. ... It is [our] hope that the aspirations of your philosophers and writers shall be realized and that once again the people of Baghdad shall flourish, enjoying their wealth and substance under institutions which are in consonance with their sacred laws and their racial ideals.-- General F. S. Maude to the people of Mesopotamia, March 19, 1917
173War on IraqThe government of Iraq, and the future of your country, will soon belong to you. ... We will end a brutal regime ... so that Iraqis can live in security. We will respect your great religious traditions, whose principles of equality and compassion are essential to Iraq's future. We will help you build a peaceful and representative government that protects the rights of all citizens. And then our military forces will leave. Iraq will go forward as a unified, independent, and sovereign nation that has regained a respected place in the world. You are a good and gifted people -- the heirs of a great civilization that contributes to all humanity.-- President George W. Bush to the people of Iraq, April 4, 2003
174Reasons for Going to War Against Saddam (according to the U. S Reasons for Going to War Against Saddam (according to the U. S. and Britain)Saddam kicked out U.N. weapons inspectors.WMDs Weapons of Mass Destruction.Saddam did not obey the No-Fly Zone limitations.He was a savage dictator.Stop Saddam before he can launch nuclear missiles against Israel, Europe, or even the United States.
175America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (1) America's invasion split the infidels and has provoked the communityAmerica's quick military "victory" has put its soldiers where they are vulnerable to the kind of warfare we can wage--Iraq will be America's Afghanistan!It opens a new front for jihadIt will provide a new radicalizing, bonding experience for hundreds of young recruitsMuslim insurgents will gain valuable field experience
176America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (2) How long can the Americans stay? It took a decade to convince the Soviets, but American's have even less spine or stomach for losses. Will they last until 2013 with 6,000 dead?Once they depart to live in angry isolation, chaos will ensue in Iraq giving jihad new spaceThe apostate regimes of the Gulf will tremble and fallProves to many non radical Muslims that the U.S. is greedy and is just out to plunder the resources of the Muslim world.
179Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? Objectives for the U.S.-led invasion of IraqThe United States sought to enforce a mandate from the United Nations to end the production and possession of weapons of mass destruction in IraqThe United States wanted to end the reign of Saddam Hussein and implement a democratically elected governmentThe stated purpose was to end collusion between Saddam Hussein and al QaedaAfter the major offensive, the campaign of violence against the United States and its allies was horrendousDemocratic elections took place in Iraq in January of 2005, but the Iraq insurgency continued
180Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? Three main insurgent groupsDisplaced Ba’athists who were part of Sadddam Hussein’s regimeMany Ba’athists believe they can reclaim power. The see themselves engaged in a guerilla campaignIraqis who want the United States to leave their countrySunni militantsMilitant Shi’itesIraqi Criminals
181Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? Jihadists who have come to Iraq to fight the United StatesSome flock from surrounding areas to fight as guerillasSome are terrorists within an al Qaeda\-style umbrellaThey are behind many of the murderous kidnappings and suicide bombingsThe three insurgent groups do not share a common vision for the future of Iraq and they are frequently at odds with each other
182Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? The culture factorAn old Arab folk saying illustrates the overriding importance of family ties in Arab culture and the response to “the stranger”: “I and my brothers against my cousins; I and my cousins against the stranger”When such cultural aspects combine with the various ideologies motivating insurgent groups, it is possible to see that a major portion of the insurrection does not involve terrorismMany of the actions against Americans and their allies do not involve terrorismIf the United States is to end major combat operations in Iraq, it will need to implement a strategy that addresses the major issues that insurgents and terrorist groups use to justify violence
183IEDsIncreasing use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and/or mines in roads.Recommendations:Do not attempt to move, or stop for, items in the road, to include:BoxesBagsDebrisAnimal CarcassesUXOSoda CansBroke-down vehiclesGive wide clearance to any items on the roads.Remember the rules for obstacles – They are being observed. Hostile forces may directly target Coalition forces that stop to investigate or clear IEDS—do not stop near a suspected IED.
184IED Hidden in Plaster made to look like concrete block on side of road under debris Garage Door opener detonation device (Notice Wire)
192Are we hurting ourselves? Today America is still fighting is Afghanistan and Iraq, two wars that were declared “over” years ago.With every day that goes by and every Muslim killed, anti-American sentiment grows throughout the Muslim world.“In conducting these activities [Afghanistan and Iraq]… US forces and policies are completing the radicalization of the Islamic world, something Osama bin Laden has been trying to do with substantial but incomplete success since the early 1990s. As a result, I think it fair to conclude that the United States of America remains bin Laden’s only indispensable ally.” Scheuer, IH, pg. xv.“We thank God for appeasing us with the dilemma in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Americans are facing a delicate situation in both countries. If they withdraw they will lose everything and if they stay, they will continue to bleed to death.” – Ayaman al-Zawahiri.
193Why America Wants: a “Short War” A short war means lower costs in lives and national treasure.A short war reflects the enormous talent and power of our nation.To the average American, the threat to the U.S. is difficult to comprehend.War is alien to the peaceful nature and desires of our nation.
194Why the Global War on Terrorism is a “Long War” The enemy is committed to his cause. He is prepared to fight to the death for what he believes is a defense of his religion.The enemy has a strategy with global aspirations. He estimates it will take him decades to accomplish his strategic objectives.It requires change within the Islamic world. Historically, such changes have taken centuries to occur.It requires increased partner nation capacity – armed forces, police, economic development, and good governance – to combat the violent extremist threat. Such growth takes decades to achieve.Bin Laden and others are patient. “The Americans should know that we have resolved to fight them fiercely in a long battle….Generations will pass on the torch to thefollowing ones so that the Prophet’s flag remainsraised in victory till eternity.” Ayman al-Zawahiri,Bin Laden’s Top Lieutenant-All elements of national power , emphasize the economic aspects-Need increased knowledge, both in the West and the Islamic community
195Defeating an Ideology: Takes Time “The Islamic Radical threat of this century greatly resembles the bankrupt ideology of the last. The murderous ideology of the Islamic radicals is the great challenge of our century. Yet, in many ways, this fight resembles the struggle against communism in the last century.” -President Bush, 6 October 2005CommunismCommunist ideology gained prominence in 1919US opposition began in 194643 years of Cold and Hot War to defeat the ideologyCommunism ultimately collapsed from withinViolent Islamic-Based ExtremismThreads of history thousands of years longPotentially more legitimacy with a religious based ideology, especially when conditions supportgroup based vs. state based – more difficult to apply cold war strategiesSimilar to the cold war, the Global War on Terrorism will be measured in decades. It requires all elements of national power and efforts of coalitions/alliances. And there are extremely high stakes.However, in this war we are faced with religious basis of violent extremism versus a political ideology, our enemy is predominately a stateless enemy and we do not desire to discredit Islam as we did with communism.These differences highlight both the difficulty in fighting this war and the patience we must maintain. It took over 50 years to marginalize the communist ideology. It took thousands of years to discredit and rid the world of most slavery. It will take generations to undermine and defeat the violent extreme ideology of our current enemy.Key Lesson: Marginalizing an ideology requires patienceand promoting reform from within
196Ideology: Cold War vs. Violent Extremism Cold War Similarities:Measured in decadesRequires all elements of national powerRequires efforts of coalitions/alliancesExtremely high stakesThe further spread of terrorism – “Spillover” or “Domino Theory”Greater restrictions of civil liberties to stem the expanding threatModerate governments in the Middle East at riskCivil unrest in countries with sizable Muslim minoritiesKey Differences:Religious basis of violent extremism versus a political ideologyExtremists are predominately a stateless enemyWe cannot discredit all of Islam as we did with communism, it is a divine religion. We can only discredit the violent extremist“…cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. The United States must support such developments. But this process is likely to be measured in decades, not years.” /11 Commission Report
197Building Capacity in the Cold War Long Term Examples of Success (Decades of Support)Germany, Japan, South KoreaCommonalitiesSustained American Presence – still today (over 50 years)Significant American InvestmentDemocratic societies with free market economiesPayoffPartner nations stood up to Communist threatsAll are significant allies and trading partnersEach is a stabilizing force within their regionIn 1952, Korea was devastated by Japanese occupation and the war with the north. Their natural, human, and manmade resources were destroyed. They had a 95% illiteracy rate and no record of national governance. Their Gross Domestic Product was equivalent to those of the poorest Asian and African Countries. Their economy was almost entirely rudimentary agriculture.In 2005, Korea is know as on of the “Asian Tigers” – one of the top four Asian economies. Its GDP has grown to match those within the European Union. It economy has been entirely industrialized and focused on technology. It has experienced one of the most rapid growths in exports and trading since Most importantly, it no longer requires large numbers of American combat forces or American support for survival. It is one of our strongest allies in the world and a peace loving nation.While American support was only an element that facilitated Korea’s amazing growth, it no doubt played a significant role. It did not come quick or cheap but the dedication and patience of our leaders past have left us with a vibrant and strong partner in the world. We to, have the responsibility to leave our children with strong partners for the future.Key Lesson: Capacity building takes decades…but it is what allows the United States to win this war in the long term.
198Consider How the U.S. can be Defeated… The United States cannot be defeated militarily. The enemy knows this. But consider:The world’s most dangerous people possess the world’s most dangerous weapons – nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons…Terror attacks weaken the world economyContinued casualties weaken national resolveTraditional allies prefer accommodationWould it expand the conflict into a “clash of civilizations?” Or…Force our economy into a recession? Depression?Create political pressure for isolationism?Deter us from necessary action?Force us to reach accommodation – “Peace in our Time?”It is not difficult to accept that violent extremist present a clear and present danger to world stability.It is more difficult, perhaps, to see how the enemy can leverage their capability to defeat or deter the United States.While the enemy will never defeat America in a military battle, it is plausible that they could shake our will, hold us hostage or bankrupt or economy.The enemy’s goal is to break our will with a constant drumbeat of death and destruction, amplified by an around-the-clock news cycle and clever use of the internet.Potentially, America may decide to reach accommodation or “Peace in our Time” much like Stalin attempted with Hitler – with grave consequences.While the enemy has a vision for defeating America, he has many vulnerabilities that we will exploit to achieve victory.To win, the US must exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy. What are they?
199What are the Enemy’s Vulnerabilities? The enemy’s violent acts, vision of the future, and ideology do not reflect the beliefs of the Muslim majority:Murder of ordinary people widely unsupported within the Muslim population.Repressive Taliban-like regimes do not appeal to the average Muslim.The enemy has inherent weaknesses as well:“Monolithic” view of Islam under-estimates cultural and religious differencesNo military capacity to expand their fightbeyond terrorist tacticsUnderestimates the will of Americaand our alliesThankfully, the vast majority of the people of Islam – a religion whose very name means “peace” – do not buy al-Qa’ida’s extreme ideology.These militants have shown themselves to be enemies of not only America and Iraq, but of Islam and humanity.The defeated Taliban regime provides a glimpse into what the world would look like under the domination of these extremists. This is a vision that has no mass support anywhere in the world.Right now, the enemy has no capability to seriously threaten the stability of any nation in the world, except, perhaps, Iraq. It is critical that we not allow them any further capacity.Ultimately, we must undermine the support for these extremists by amplifying moderation throughout the Muslim world and highlighting the corrupt and repressive nature of the enemy. This is the enemy’s vulnerability.So what do we need to do? What is our strategy?
200US StrategyThe three key elements in win this war are:Protect and defend the HomelandAttack terrorists and their capacity to operate effectively at home and abroadSupport mainstream Muslim efforts to reject violent extremismIn addition to the strategic elements, there are three critical cross-cutting enablers:Expanding foreign partnerships and partnership capacityStrengthening our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMDInstitutionalizing domestically and internationally the strategy against violent extremistsAt numerous venues, the President has clearly articulated how the United States will defeat the terrorist threat. He has explained that defeating a broad, decentralized, and adaptive terrorist network requires willpower and patience; constant military, diplomatic, and economic pressure; and strong, capable partners. To do this, we willContinue to protect and defend the United States.Attack terrorists and their capacity to operate effectively at home and abroad.Strengthen our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMD.These portions of our strategy focus on what the government must do to protect the people of the United States. This requires the understanding and support of the American people to sustain over the long term. But the entire nation has a responsibility to help;Institutionalizing domestically and internationally the nature of this war and the strategy to defeat the enemy.Supporting mainstream Muslims and implementing comprehensive programs to discredit the enemy ideology and highlighting America’s ideology of justice, liberty, inclusion, and peace.And finally, expanding the foreign partners and partnership capacity.This war goes far beyond the borders of Iraq, Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East
201What are the Implications of Quitting? Failure? Violent extremist overthrow the government of Iraq.U.S. image damaged throughout the world – an emboldened enemyResource rich safe havens for the enemy – increasing our risk of attackFailure to stop the enemy now, while he is relatively weak, portends a larger conflict later – at enormous costs.Much of the worlds energy resources held hostageMany of the world’s population repressed and isolated from growth and prosperityExtremists with the resources to carry-on continued attacksCountries isolated from a global trading economyOther religious beliefs repressedAmerican security and standard of living at jeopardyMake no mistake, if the United States fails in Iraq and the Global War on Terrorism, there will be significant consequences. As we have seen since the attacks on 911, everything we hold dear as a freedom loving nation is at risk. Our freedom, civil liberties, speech, economy, and our security is at jeopardy in this fight.While this war may seem far away and you may wonder how it impacts your life, consider what might have been had the United States whimpered in the face of fascism or communism in far away lands. The enemy’s goals do not end with the conquest of the regions depicted in this map. He has clearly articulated his goal of world domination. If allowed to succeed in the middle east, the enemy will force our nation to take more dramatic measures to secure the homeland. These security measures will likely be at the expense of civil liberties, free speech, economic growth, the freedom to move across borders.If we understand the implications of failure, we must commit ourselves to a long war beyond our borders. How do we do this?
202Why No Attacks on American Soil Since 9-11? (1) Another attack remains an ambitionThe jihadists lack capability? Improved intelligence and security measures have made operation environment too difficult?They certainly could do somethingAnything below 9-11 scale would appear feebleThey are patient--8 years between '93 WTC bombing and 9-11
203Why No Attacks on American Soil Since 9-11? (2) They are exploiting opportunities in Iraq right now?Locals won't act without approval?If al Qaeda planning (or has ambitions for) another big one, a lesser attack now would make it more difficult--attack when the enemy is inattentiveLocal recruits instructed to prepare themselves--a crackdown is expectedA strategy of "many Madrids?"
204What is next for Al Qaeda? Al Qaeda will strike the US again.It will be as big or bigger than 9/11.It could be tomorrow, next year, or in 20 years.Remember, Al Qaeda is patient.Bin Laden wants us to leave the Middle East and give up our support of Israel.“His aim is to force us to consider whether continued support of Israel is worth the bloodshed he promises.” John Miller as quoted in TOEE, 260.
205Why are we losing the War on Terror? Faulty analysis of OBL and his threat.Al Qaeda is not a typical terrorist group. It is multinational and not state sponsored. Most terrorist experts have underestimated OBL and Al Qaeda because of the latter. Most so called experts are trying to analyze OBL as a ‘normal’ terrorist, when he is anything but. He and his followers are motivated by religion and the belief that they are doing God’s will. This makes them much more dangerous than someone fighting for a worldly cause.“Islamic fundamentalism represents a minority that would impose religious doctrine from and earlier historical era….The vast majority of Muslims worldwide do not support violence.” Richard Mackenzie as quoted in TOEE, p. 300.“This war is fundamentally religious. Under no circumstances should we forget this enmity between us and the infidels For the enmity is based on creed.” OBL, quoted in TOEE, p. 19.
206Faulty analysis of OBL and his threat. “If he had the wherewithal to kill Americans and attack U.S. targets he would do so, but he doesn’t…..as long as he’s in Afghanistan, as long as he doesn’t have access to a cell phone,….his ability to pan and conduct terrorist operation is extremely limited.” Unnamed State Department Counterterrorism Official, 1999, from TOEE p. 22.“I just don’t think a guy in a cave in Afghanistan can send off s over satellite phone ordering mass destruction anywhere in the world. Real life is not like James Bond movies, It is just not that easy to hold the world ransom.” London based Security consultant as quoted in TOEE, p. 302.
207Different Styles of War Bin Laden is using a “no holds barred” style of war by attacking civilian and military targets.“He (OBL) and other Islamic activists appreciate that neither the U.S. nor Israel can politically afford high levels of military casualties, as previous events in Beirut, Somalia, and Southern Lebanon have shown. Professor Magnus Rainstorm in TOEE, 209.The US, on the other had is obsessed with trying to keep casualties on our side, and theirs, low.We will lose if we continue in this manner.
208Imperial Hubris We think we are right! We have to understand that sometimes our actions, no matter how good they seem to us, are viewed by others as harmful to them. We need to understand that the American way does not work for everyone. We need to analyze our foreign policies to see if they are worth the backlash. If they are, we need to be prepared to accept it.
209How Do We Win? Get tough or get out. We cannot underestimate them, therefore fighting a limited war.We cannot continue to fight a politically correct war.Think WWII not Vietnam.We have to kill those who hope to hurt us.The public needs to be educated about the costs.“The range of American policy options in the [Middle East] region is reduced to two alternatives, both disagreeable: Get tough or get out.”“Westerners have learned, by harsh experience, that the proper response [when attacked by Islamic raiders] is not to take fright but to marshal their forces, to launch massive retaliation and to persist relentlessly until the raiders have either been eliminated or so coed by the violence inflicted that they relapse into inactivity…the world must learn again that the United States, when severely antagonized, is to be feared; that it grinds its mortal enemies to powder as it did sixty years ago, that the widespread view in extremist Islamic circles that it (US) is cowardly, decadent, and easily intimidated by the thought of casualties is false.”
210How Do We Win? Reform the Immigration System. We need to know who is in our country.We need to be able to keep track of the people in our country.We need to be able to get them out when their visa’s expire.
211How do we win?“Persian Gulf oil and the lack of serious U.S. alternative-energy development are at the core of the bin Laden issue. For cheap, easily accessible oil, Washington and the West have supported the Muslim tyrannies bin Laden and other Islamists seek to destroy. There can be no other reason for backing Saudi Arabia, a regime that, since its founding, has deliberately fostered an Islamic ideology, whose goals- unlike bin Laden’s- can be met only by annihilating all non-Muslims.” Scheuer, IH, pg. xi.Get Off OilWe need to invest in alternative energy sources.Not only will this help the environment, it will make our nation a safer place.If we get off oil, we will have no reason to be in the Middle East, thereby making our country safer.
213Most important point!Killing Osama Bin Laden will not end the problem.There are many who agree with him and someone will replace him upon his death.According to a friend of bin Laden’s #2 man, “The fundamentalist movement’s leaders are ideas, a heritage, a stature, and principles that do not disappear when they (Bin Laden and other leaders) disappear.”We need to solve the problems that have led to bin Laden and others hating us.