1. Campaigns and Elections
Political Competition in Democracy
This presentation is the property of Dr. Kevin Parsneau for use by him and his current students. No other person may use or reprint without his permission.

2. What are the different types of elections in the U.S.?
 Who runs for offices and who wins?
How do voters decide?
How do elections fit into the big picture for democracy?
How are presidential elections different?

3. Responsiveness, democracy and a republic

4. Types of Elections General Elections Primaries and caucuses
Presidential
Midterm
Primaries and caucuses
Closed
Open
Types of Elections
1. Presidential Elections and Midterm (1st Tues after 1st Monday in Nov)
Midterm elections every 2 years = all congressmen and 1/3 of senate (2002)
Presidential elections every 4 years = president and VP plus all congressmen and 1/3 senate (2000 and 2004)
2. Primaries (secret ballots) and caucuses (meetings)
Technically, there are primaries for any elected position
Elections held by party to choose a nominee
Each state party does its own thing
Modified Open or Closed Primary
Closed vs. Open
Closed primary = only people registered for that party for a certain period before the primary
Open = voters choose on the primary day which party’s primary they will vote in
Open can be influenced by partisans for the other team

5. Types of Intra-party Elections
Caucus– members of a party hold a meeting to select the their candidate for the general election.
Primary– members of a party vote by secret ballot to select their candidate for the general election.
Closed caucus or primary--only registered party members may take part.
Open caucus or primary—any voter may take part in selecting the party’s candidate.

6. Who runs for Congress? White Elderly Males Lawyers
Less now than in the past

7. Theoretical “Ideal” Campaign
Median Voter Theory: (PARAPHRASE) the candidate that endorses policies that appeal to the “median voter” (i.e. the voter that represents the winning vote (50% +1)) will win the election. Thus candidates choose policies designed to win the vote of the “median voter.”

10. Campaigns Election Strategies Win Your Primary/ Caucus
i.e. appeal to your party in the electorate
Secures volunteers and contributions
Win your general election
i.e. appeal to moderates
pick up undecided, low motivated and low info voters
avoid abandoning your partisan supporters
2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)?
Incumbency advantage
House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election
Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention
Happen less often
1. proven winner
2. scare off opponents
3. constituency service—pork barrel
4. town hall meetings
Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers
(is a winner… people support the candidate)
Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning

11. The “Shift”
After trying to appeal to their party bases of relatively extreme and activist voters, candidates must shift their positions to attract moderate, independent and often less motivated or informed voters.

12. The “Shift” Two Potential Strategies
Compromise-“move” to the center by changing your policy positions to centrists positions similar to the “median voter.”
Crafted Talk-appear to change your positions by using language designed to sound centrist but that blurs your real positions and plans.

13. Crafted Talk (Jacobs and Shapiro)
Candidates and campaign polling
Often use polls not to determine the policy positions of voters, but which words appeal to voters and make them think the candidate agrees with them
Select words and phrases chosen to seem centrist
Portray your opponent as extreme
2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)?
Incumbency advantage
House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election
Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention
Happen less often
1. proven winner
2. scare off opponents
3. constituency service—pork barrel
4. town hall meetings
Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers
(is a winner… people support the candidate)
Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning

14. Campaigns Who wins elections? Incumbency advantage Name recognition
Constituency Service and “pork”
“War chests”
Coattails
Final Steps to Winning the Campaign—G.O.T.V.
2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)?
Incumbency advantage
House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election
Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention
Happen less often
1. proven winner
2. scare off opponents
3. constituency service—pork barrel
4. town hall meetings
Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers
(is a winner… people support the candidate)
Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning
Constituency service and “pork”
Incumbents as officeholders have the ability to use their office to help potential voters
AND they can get credit for federal dollars spent to create jobs in the district/ state

15. How Do Voters Choose? Party Identification (PID) Party Platform
Ideology
Image
Issues
Party Identification (PID)—heuristic shortcut to navigate election and make decision
Not just blindly voting for “team”
The most informed people are usually the partisans
Party Platform: statement of the general principles and goals of the party that politicians are expected to usually uphold
Ideology
Image readily available supplied by candidates
Individualized campaigns run on their own message and fundraising
Issues—harder to decide on (R = PB-C+D)
High cost to vote—not the most important thing in life
Must learn issues
Must decide which issues most important
Must learn candidates’ positions on issues
Must understand the difference
Must weigh all those against each other

16. Elections and Responsiveness
Prospective voting
Retrospective voting
Sociotropic voting
Elections and Responsiveness
Prospective voting—voting based upon how the candidate’s policies will affect him or her in the future
Retrospective voting—voting based upon the candidate’s past performance
Sociotropic voting—voting based upon the interests of the community over one’s own experience (but requires media for affects on the community)

18. Unique Aspects of Presidential Elections
Presidential Primaries and Caucuses
Go state by state winning delegates to the national conventions
National Conventions
Delegates and Superdelegates vote to select the party nominees
General Election
Campaigning for the Electoral College
Unique Aspects of Presidential Elections
Presidential Primaries
National Conventions
Delegates and Superdelegates
Campaigning for the Electoral College
Electors and faithless electors
Frontloading: Iowa, N.H., Super Tuesday
Solid Red/ Blue States

19. Effects of the Electoral College
50 (51 w/ DC) separate elections for electors
Have to win states not just votes
Not only population centers and big cities
Focus on big electoral states
Focus on swing states
Hard for third parties to compete
Faithless electors
Can have an “undemocratic” outcome

20. Is what it takes to get elected the same as what it takes to govern?
Compromise
Principles
Rally support for yourself
Vilify opponents
Effect on turnout and faith in democracy
Is what it takes to get elected the same as what it takes to govern?
Compromise
Principles
Rally the public poisons the environment
Negative on enemies who you’ll have to work with later
Vilify opponents—decrease turnout/ less faith in democracy