1. Voter Contact The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

2. What is Voter Contact?? The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

3. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

4. Classic Definition of Voter Contacts The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact “The whole state must be so well organized that every Whig can be brought to the polls. So divide the county into small districts and appoint in each a committee. Make a perfect list of the voters and ascertain with certainty for whom they will vote. Keep a constant watch on the doubtful voters and have them talked to by those in whom they have the most confidence. On Election Day see that every Whig is brought to the polls.”

5. Voter Contact - Big Picture 1. Voter File Development 2. Political Targeting 3. Voter Contact – Core Programs 4. Voter Contact – Methods 5. Voter Contact Tools The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

6. Voter Contact – Voter File Development  Base Voter File with Voter History The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact  Enhanced Data  NCOA  Phone Match  Email Match

7. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact Who Votes? Who Do They Vote for? THE VICTORY LAB Political Targeting

8. Voter Contact - Political Targeting The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact Partisanship Turnout OppositionSwing VotersSupporters Always Vote X Persuasion Recruit Volunteers Sometimes Vote X PersuasionGOTV Seldom Vote XXX

9. Voter Contact - Political Targeting The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact  Scarce Resources  Voter Contact has to be targeted  Slice & Dice your voter file so you know voter segments  Design voter contact around segments. Political Targeting Hal Malchow

10. Core programs The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact RegistrationIdentificationPersuasionTurnout ORGANIZATION BUILDING (to build capacity for core programs) Voter Contact - Core Programs

11. Voter Contact – Core Programs Where to get started.  Complete understanding of the electorate from your political targeting.  Infrastructure: office, equipment, personnel.  List of segmented voters for targeted operations.  Your budget/resources should guide voter contact program development. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

12. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact Voter Contact Program Design Let the Numbers Drive VC Program Design  How many votes do I need to win?  How can I Segment voters (Yes/No/Undecided)?  Can I Cluster Undecided Segments?  What resources do I have? (time, money, people) 5,000Opposition = 22,500Base = 22,500 Vote goal = 26,000 3,500

13. Voter Contact Timeline Pre-Vote Voter identification Early Vote Absentee ballots Early & satellite voting Election Day Votes cast at the polls Consider state specific dynamics. Each state has unique election laws. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

14. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact Voter Contact Calculators Example: 5,000 persuasion calls in 10 days.  5,000 contacts X 2.5 (factor to call through 4x) = 12,500 dials  12,500 contacts / 25 dials per hour = 500 hours  500 hours / 10 days = 50 calling hours per day  50 hours / 3-hour shifts = 17 phone lines/volunteers per day  Result = 2,000 to 2,500 completed contacts

15. Voter contact methods.  Door-to-Door  Literature drops  Phone calls  Direct mail  Robo-calls  Radio / TV ads  Online Advertising  Social media  Campaign Events Voter Contact Methods The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact

16. Effectiveness of Voter Contact Tactics The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact GOTV effort Effectiveness per contact Is effect statistically reliable? Door-to-door 1 vote per 14 contactsYes Phone (volunteer) 1 vote per 38 contactsYes Direct mail (partisan) No detectable effectAverage effect not large Robocalls 1 vote per 900 contactsNot significant Leafleting (Lit drops) 1 vote per 189 contactsNot significant Television Raises zip code turnout.5%Not significant Radio Raises city wide turnout.8%Not significant Get Out The Vote – by Donald Green and Alan Gerber (p. 139)

17. The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact Voter Contact Tools Online Campaign Platforms Nationbuilder, Voter Gravity, SalesForce (customized) Benefits of Campaign Platforms 1. Mobile Technology 2. Tactical Integration 3. Real-time Reporting

18. Questions? dt@groundgamehq.com GroundGameHQ.com/leadership-institute The Leadership InstituteVoter Contact